We'll just have to agree to disagree, because I think getting a haul for #2 and giving Sam one last chance IS a horrible idea. Even if Sam had been pretty good, I'd still think it was a horrible idea. Next year's draft class is nowhere near as good as this year's. I posted links to articles and videos that show the top QB prospects for next year, and they're all pretty badly flawed. And even if 2-3 of them turned out to turn things around and become very good, it would cost us a haul to trade up next year because we'd be drafting outside the top 10 and more likely closer to #20 with the talent JD will add between FA and the draft. IMO it makes zero sense to pass up on a QB in a very good QB draft when we don't have to use any extra picks to take one, then wait a year, give up a haul of picks to move up (if we can even find someone willing to trade down) and take a lesser QB. The net result would be negative. Even if Sam had a great year, he could decide to test FA and just walk and at best, we'd get a bottom of the 3rd round compensatory pick for him.
Now that the conversation has begun to include quarterbacks for next year's draft, I would say that not since the advent of videotape have we known less about a class and who out of them may be available, much less how good they are. Blame it mostly on Covid and the lack of consistency in play this past year but also add in the increased ability of guys to get an extra year and change schools without penalty.
I think I've seen enough of Sam tbh we can't just keep him just in case he flicks the switch on in his head to 'do it" mode. Nice kid but lacked the smarts to help himself like Allen has, of course, we gave him no chance the last two years but he has barely shown his talent in that time, his faults have become glaring issues and his potential has dimmed alarmingly. I don't doubt a trade to the 49ers would see an upsurge, maybe even a sit behind Rapey B for a season could see him emerge as a QB again, the one thing he has left is age is still on his side.
I’m not positive right now on what direction I want the Jets to go as far as QB...I’m still weighing all the options If JD and co love Wilson or Fields or whoever else I think the decision is easy. You get what you can for Sam and take the QB at 2. If they don’t really love any of the QBs that much then it’s a tough decision. I think also their feelings on Sam’s potential matters a lot in the decision. Even if Sam were to struggle, the team would hopefully be very strong for the future with all of the picks we already have, The haul from trading down at 2, as well as the free agency/ cap money we have. It would make it so that a solid vet could come in and do well even if we weren’t able to secure a top rookie next draft. You could then take a rookie developmental QB prospect and kick the can down the road. Maybe Wilson/ Watson/ who knows who else will be available next offseason...who knows what will happen.
I :Liked" your post, not because I agree with "kicking the can down the road", but because that's certainly a possible approach that JD takes. If he doesn't really like one of the QBs available this year, he can sign or trade for a vet if he doesn't think Darnold can do it (although if he thinks that then I wonder why he wouldn't draft his replacement this year). And if next year's crop isn't what he's looking for he can continue with a vet QB and building up the talent until he does find a QB to draft. Again, this is NOT what I want to have happen, and I'd be pretty frustrated if he did go this way, but it's certainly possible. I can only hope I'm wrong in that regard and he likes Wilson or one of the other ones this year.
What if he’s just like many of us on Sam: Not completely sold either way but hopeful for his potential with a better coaching staff and team around him? Even if that’s the case and he doesn’t love the crop of QB’s, he’s not gambling fully on Sam. He’s basically saying there’s a 50/50 or whatever percent chance that Sam gets it together, and even if he doesn’t, we can re-evaluate the QB spot with a strong team/ position next off-season. If Sam gets it all together, then great we’re ready to make a run. The downside to doing this is that you’re possibly passing up a rookie franchise QB...the downside to trading Sam and taking the QB is bigger if the rookie busts. You would be setting your team back years and likely gone as the GM
I think Darnold is a good fit in Lafleur's offense, and would like to see it before dumping him for peanuts. How the Jets have managed their investment in Darnold has been criminal, and JD has played a role in that. Any change Morgan actually gets a look in this offense as well, or was that just a completely wasted pick?
Basically, no matter how good all the scouts are, no one will be able to tell with high degree of confidence if Sam can turn this around and be a stud QB for us. What JD may be able to do is to determine approximate probability/likelihood of that happening. If that likelihood is worth more to JD than the opportunity cost (probably 3d, or late 2nd round at best we can get for Sam), JD will keep Sam. However, even if JD does so, just because the probability of success exceeded 3d/late 2nd rounder, doesn't mean it is very high. It is nowhere near the probability you get at #2 overall of this draft. So, even in this case, when JD feels Sam has a chance, with that chance being relatively low, draft the rookie QB and sit him for a part of or even the entire year is Sam miraculously becomes FQB and does not miss any games. And if Sam continues to suck after a few games, then rookie can come in and you lost your opportunity cost of high 2nd or 3d rounder, but if they were high on Sam, at least they gave it a shot. Then you still have that chip of #2 QB pick to play with. If Sam, on the other hand, becomes a good QB, and you can also see rookie is awesome, you are sitting pretty, and can then be in Smith/Mahomes type of situation I referenced earlier. QB problem is solved, and you can get good value for the guy you decide not to keep next off season. So, it all comes down to whether the Jets get an offer for Sam, which exceeds the value of probable success JD placed on him. We don't know what this value is right now, but whatever it is, regardless of Sam, in this draft class we need to walk away with a promising rookie QB.
The keeping Sam AND drafting a QB at 2 option only makes sense to me if we can’t get even a 3rd rounder for Sam which seems very unlikely
I think it is very likely Watson will be on the market next season with a high cap figure and after a year of locking horns with a bad management team in Houston. He really has no leverage to force a trade this season. The $20M it would cost him to sit out includes $9M he has already pocketed and you know he's not going to do that coming off a rookie deal. Also the contract *would* toll over to next year if he didn't report and Houston chose to go down that road. He's not going to reset the contract to the $11M year when he has $35M guaranteed in year two. Finally, Colin Kaepernick did happen, and at some point in an unyielding clash of the wills Watson could find himself totally broken if he didn't bend to management's ironclad contractual hold on him. The NFL is quite capable of blackballing Watson to uphold the inviolability of guaranteed contracts, which mostly work in management's favor at this point. Point of all of the above is that Watson is going to play for Houston this year even if he can't see it right now. His reps certainly can and are going to do the things that are best and most practical for him and for their business, which is collecting a small part of his earnings. Wilson is a completely different story. He's actually at risk in Seattle, since Pete Carroll is nearing retirement age and that will herald a new regime probably top to bottom there. Wilson is also getting into his mid-30's and the guarantees are gone after 2021. He'd probably like to renegotiate his contract there since his base salaries are headed into a decline over the last 3 years of the deal. The problem is the cap is also in a temporary decline - likely through 2023. The NFLPA agreed to borrow from the 2022 and 2023 caps to raise the floor on the 2021 cap. That move locks in a 180-190'ish cap for two more seasons after this one and there's no way that big contracts are getting renegotiated to include more money with that dynamic in play. It's more likely management will be hammering away on players to lower overall compensation if they have no guaranteed money left in the deal. The threat being a release into a generally depressed free agent market as the cap hovers at barely sustainable levels. Wilson might well hit free agency unfettered in 2022 with huge $$$ in his eyes and nobody willing to do that for him for more than one or two years at the outside. If the Jets happen to have the cap space he might be a good one year pickup assuming they have built the team right in 2021 and are steering towards that in 2022.
Why is it that Douglas must be sold on Wilson/Fields/Lance in order to pick one at #2? Can't he just be sold on Sam being a bust? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Because the #2 pick is not just any first round pick. It is a premier pick. You have to be fully sold on whomever you take there because if the pick busts you are probably gone at the same time they are.
I'm not buying that. No one is going to kill Douglas for taking a chance on a highly regarded QB prospect when the Jets current QB sucks. Worst rated passer over a 3 year span. Who could blame him? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Everybody kills Douglas if he overdrafts a QB as a need pick and the guy busts. It's the worst crime a GM can commit.
I've seen folks say that Saleh & staff like Darnold (I don't know how much) but it is definitely out there
I can not see Saleh liking Sam too much. He is a defensive coach and those guys want their qbs to be accurate, smart and not turn the ball over. Sam is none of these. I also believe if JD believed in Sam he would not let him rot on the vine this past yr with no talent. QBs confidence is so important and you do not screw a guy over that badly and believe it will not have long-term effects.
If he isn’t sold on any of them or Sam, then at minimum he should trade down and take one of the QBs to atleast get some extra picks along the way No point in taking someone at 2 you don’t even really love Another option would be to just go with a vet and take a mid round shot on a QB while trading down at 2 for a haul, and also trading Sam All unlikely scenarios though as Douglas probably likes Sam or atleast one of the top QBs
Not a good sign that he wasn't even in consideration when Darnold was hurt. But that was with Gase and his shitty system. I suppose it's possible he could look salvageable with some actual talent and decent coaches too, especially in a more QB friendly system.
