FA & Potential Roster Moves

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by NCJetsfan, Feb 5, 2021.

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  1. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    IMO it doesn't matter what they're willing to offer. We aren't trading down from #2. We're taking a QB at #2. You can book on that.
     
  2. hornblower

    hornblower Well-Known Member

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    No chance!!
     
  3. chad2coles

    chad2coles Well-Known Member

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    Douglas has to spend the money somewhere. You can get out of a 4 year deal after 3 years and Thuney has been one of the top and most consistent guards in the league since he got drafted and hasn't missed a single game. It doesn't matter what the Jets do at QB, adding Thuney helps every aspect of our offense. I know people have talked about adding Linsely at C and moving McGovern to guard, but McGovern had a good 2nd half after playing on a line with 5 new pieces and 2 bad guards. Joe Thuney is also 2 years younger than Linsley.
     
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  4. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Thuney isn't a FA, he's still under contract with NE. Thoughts are NE won't re-tag him, pushing his pay over $16m for one season. BUT, Thuney is the best run blocking guard in the league, and NE is a run first team. And NE has as much cap space as we do (close). Sooo, NE might decide to pay/keep him (they should). We'll see.

    How about that center out of SanFran? I read he's one of the best, and might be avail? Anyone know?
     
  5. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/25/...rofile-los-angeles-chargers-cb-michael-davis/

    New York Jets free agent profile: Los Angeles Chargers CB Michael Davis
    By
    Michael Nania
    -
    02/25/2021

    Chargers cornerback Michael Davis is one of the NFL’s most underrated free agents and a great potential target for the New York Jets.

    Positives
    Great on-ball coverage throughout career
    Few fans around the NFL would do backflips if their team signed Michael Davis, but maybe they should. Since signing with the Los Angeles Chargers as an undrafted free agent out of BYU in 2017, Davis (6-foot-2, 196 pounds) has consistently held opponents to subpar results when they have chosen to throw at him. Davis excels at preventing touchdowns, tends to give up solid numbers in terms of yardage, and is adept at getting his hands on the football.

    Over 1,479 career coverage snaps across 59 games, Davis has allowed 132 of 212 passes in his direction to be completed for 1,560 yards, four touchdowns, and five interceptions. He has a total of 32 passes defended in his career. Here are how some of those numbers compare to the 2020 league average for cornerbacks.

    [​IMG]
    In 2020, Davis played all 16 games and dropped back into coverage on 596 snaps, allowing 56 of 92 passes to be completed for 689 yards (7.5 per target), two touchdowns, and three interceptions. He tied for seventh among cornerbacks with a total of 14 passes defended.


    Age-plus-production

    The 2021 free agent cornerback market is packed with veterans who played well in 2020, but among the younger players of the batch, there are very few who actually performed at a high level this past season.

    Davis is one of the exceptions. Just turning 26 years old a little under two months ago, he is among the small number of free agent corners who are both in their prime and coming off of a good 2020 season.

    Among the 40 impending unrestricted free agent cornerbacks that played at least 200 snaps last year, Davis joins Shaquill Griffin, Cameron Sutton, and Ahkello Witherspoon as the only ones who check these three boxes:

    • Will be under 27 years old when the season begins
    • Ranked above the position’s 50th percentile in passer rating allowed in 2020
    • Ranked above the position’s 50th percentile in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade in 2020
    Sutton is primarily a slot corner, so that makes Davis, Griffin, and Witherspoon the only three outside corners who check those boxes. To boot, Davis is the only member of the bunch who played all 16 games last year; Witherspoon missed five games and Griffin missed four.

    Durability
    Davis has done a solid job of remaining healthy throughout his career. He appeared in 61 out of 66 (92.4%) possible regular season and playoff games for the Chargers from 2017-20, and only two of those five missed games were due to injury.

    In 2020, Davis played all 16 games and never appeared on the Chargers’ injury report prior to a game.

    Back in 2019, Davis missed two games with a hamstring injury from Weeks 2-3. Later that season, he was suspended two games by the NFL for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy.

    Davis played 16 games in 2018 and 15 games in 2017 (including both playoff games that year). His only missed game in 2017 was the season-opener, in which he was healthy but was chosen as one of the team’s inactive players for the game.

    Scheme fit
    Davis spent the past four years playing under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley in Los Angeles. Bradley comes from the same coaching tree as Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich. All three were on the Seahawks’ staff together under Pete Caroll from 2010-11. Saleh also coached under Bradley in Jacksonville from 2014-16.

    In Los Angeles, Bradley ran the 4-3/Cover-3 scheme that he inherited from Seattle, the same base defense that Saleh carried with him to San Francisco after his days in Seattle and Jacksonville. So, Davis already has plenty of experience playing in a defense that should be very similar to what the New York Jets will run.
     
  6. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Negatives
    Coverage grading
    While Davis’ raw numbers in coverage are excellent, his grading at PFF hasn’t been quite as pristine. His composite career coverage grade at PFF is 63.9, which is a few ticks above the 2020 positional average of 61.0, but not quite as eye-popping as his coverage numbers. In 2020, his 62.9 coverage grade ranked at the 55th percentile among 129 qualifiers. Once again, that’s respectable but not great.

    PFF’s coverage grade does a good job of accounting for things that the raw coverage numbers miss, such as bad throws or drops by the opponent that bailed out the defender when he was beaten. The fact that Davis’ grade falls significantly below the quality of his coverage numbers is a little bit concerning, suggesting that a regression back towards an average level could potentially be in his future.

    From watching some of his 2020 film, Davis certainly benefited from bad throws to an extent. On a few of his pass breakups, he was beaten but a bad throw allowed him to get back into the play.

    The overall body of work for Davis over the course of his career remains strong, but this is a red flag to keep in mind.

    Hot-and-cold nature of 2020 season
    Consistency was not a part of Davis’ game in 2020. He was a roller-coaster ride – one that surely had more peaks than valleys, but an adventure nonetheless.

    Davis enjoyed quite a few fantastic games but stumbled through a handful of bad ones as well. He had eight games in which he allowed fewer than 30 yards, but four in which he allowed more than 80 yards.

    Tackling
    Davis is a very average tackler. He owns a career miss rate of 12.8% that is almost equal to the 2020 positional average (12.9%).

    However, it should be noted that Davis took an enormous leap in this area in 2020. This past season, he had a miss rate of just 8.6%, missing six tackles and making 64. Prior to 2020, he had a less-than-ideal 15.5% miss rate. Is his progression a sign of things to come or will it go down as an outlier?

    Other notes
    Run defense
    Davis’ run defense isn’t anything to write home about in either a positive or negative way. His composite career run defense grade at PFF is 62.8, slightly above the 2020 positional average of 61.4. In 2020, he posted a grade of 62.0.

    The run game is where Davis sputtered as a tackler before the 2020 season. From 2017-19, he had a 20.8% miss rate against the run (19 tackles, 5 misses), surpassing the 2020 positional average against the run (17.6%). He took a big leap in this area in 2020 with 22 tackles against the run and only one miss (4.3%).

    Penalties
    Like his run defense and his tackling, Davis is average when it comes to penalty minimization. He has 13 penalties over 2,423 career snaps, an average of 5.36 per 1,000 snaps that is barely below the 2020 positional average of 5.89.

    Similar to his leap as a run defender, this is another area where Davis improved in 2020. He had three penalties over 958 snaps, a per-1,000 snap rate of just 3.13.

    Usage/alignment
    Davis made his first career start for the Chargers in Week 8 of 2018, and since then, has been an every-down player for them. Save for one game he left early due to injury, Davis participated in 96% of the Chargers’ defensive plays on average over his past 38 regular season and playoff games.

    In 2020, Davis primarily lined up on the outside for the Chargers, doing so on 85.3% of his defensive snaps. He favored the right side of the field, where he lined up 72.5% of the time. Davis also favored the right side in 2019 (69.1%), but in 2018, his split was a bit more even (54.8%).

    Don’t expect Davis to be utilized heavily as a blitzer. He has only rushed the quarterback on five career snaps.

    Contract estimate
    The best guess would seem to be that Davis will receive a multi-year deal at a mid-level cost for a starter. He doesn’t quite have the star-caliber resume to attract a large deal, but as a starter in his prime with strong durability and a track record of above-average play, he should be able to fetch a healthy contract.

    One highly comparable player to Davis in the 2020 market was Dallas’ Anthony Brown. While Brown was a slot corner (he moved outside in 2020), he also hit the market as a 26-year-old starter with a solid track record, as Davis is about to. Here’s a comparison of their resumes as they entered free agency:

    • Brown: 26 years old, 56 career games, 33 career starts, 63.9 composite career overall PFF grade, 32 career passes defended, 1.02 career yards per cover snap allowed
    • Davis: 26 years old, 59 career games, 35 career starts, 64.4 composite career overall PFF grade, 32 career passes defended, 1.05 career yards per cover snap allowed
    Brown fetched a three-year, $15.5 million deal from the Cowboys with $8 million guaranteed. That seems like a fair baseline for Davis – a three-year deal in the range of $6 million per year.

    Projecting Jets’ pursuit
    Davis absolutely seems like a player who will be on the Jets’ radar.

    The Jets have a major need at the cornerback position, with the promising-but-unproven Bryce Hall as the only promising asset on the roster at the position. However, the free agent cornerback market is devoid of any bona fide megadeal-worthy options, such as Joe Thuney and Brandon Scherff at guard or Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin at wide receiver. This means that the Jets will likely have to go bargain hunting at the position.

    Durable, in his prime, possessing experience in a similar scheme, and providing strong coverage numbers on a yearly basis, Davis makes a ton of sense for the Jets as a starting option if he can be had affordably.

    If Davis’ cost gets out of hand, the Jets might want to step aside. As suggested by his mid-level coverage grades, Davis’ film shows a player who is probably a bit lucky to have the coverage numbers that he has, which means his production could be due for a regression to the mean in the future. He’s most likely not worthy of a massive contract at this point in time.

    Should Davis command a deal that remains within reason, the Jets would absolutely be wise to put their name in the hat for his services, and there are quite a few reasons to believe that they will indeed do so.
     
  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I never cease to be amazed at the moves that I see some posters thinking we should make like signing Ju Ju Smith-Schuster in FA (who isn't that good and whose character is definitely not a fit for the type of players that JD is looking to add), trading for or signing often-injured players like Will Fuller, or trading down this year and not taking a QB. If I live to be 1,000 years old, I'll never understand some of you and how your brains work.
    Spot on! McGovern is also better at C than OG, so the people who want him moved to OG, would be complaining about his play at OG next year. We are better off signing Thuney and keeping McGovern at C. Don't forget that McGovern was also playing in a new system, with an awful HC and lousy QB.
     
  8. NOVAJET

    NOVAJET "2020 TGG Fantasy Football Champ"

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  9. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    I would be neither shocked nor disappointed to see both Felton and Hawkins drafted by the Jets in April.
     
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  10. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

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    Report: Titans shopping Isaiah Wilson in trade talks
    Grey Papke, Larry Brown Sports 3 hrs ago

    Isaiah Wilson’s tumultuous tenure with the Tennessee Titans appears to be coming to an end.

    [​IMG]© Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
    According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the Titans are shopping Wilson, and are willing to trade last year’s first-round pick.

    Wilson, who went 29th overall last year, is obviously talented. However, he would be coming with significant baggage. His value wouldn’t be particularly high, and the Titans’ willingness to trade him shows just how eager they are to move on.

    Wilson clearly wants out of Tennessee as well. It’s not clear if a new team would save the offensive lineman’s career, but it may be his only shot.

    Me here, Is this the rookiie tackle who got busted during training camp at a college rave (and tried jumping off a 2nd floor balcony to avoid capture) by campus police during a covid raid? He may just be very immature, but a really good tackle.
     
  11. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    Sounds like a future Dallas Cowboy.
     
  12. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Keelan Cole draws my interest a bit as a "lower" tier free agent receiver. Competitive possession receiver and would play the X position to move the chains. Student of the game out of college who worked his ass off to become a pro coming from a D2 school.

     
  13. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    Would be a decent fit for a decent price. Texans are a dumpster fire.
     
  14. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    No thanks. Entering his runningback graveyard years and nothing more than a pass catcher. There's a reason neither team he's played for has given him significant carries.
     
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  15. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    He's got a few more years til he hits the wall hard. And as much as I want a Harris or Etienne bell cow stud RB, I'm looking at what the Niners did last year and I'm assuming we're going to try and mimic that. They had like 18 solid backs and rotated them around. Johnson in a rotation would be fine.
     
  16. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    It's pretty hard and fast at 28/29 man.

    DeMarco Murray, Lessens McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, David Johnson, Doug Martin, Matt Forte, etc.

    Now I know you're not saying he'd be a bell cow, but I'm kind of sick of the stop gapping bullshit we've done with veterans at the position for most of the past 15 years since Curtis Martin retired. Create a pipeline of backs. Draft, run into the ground, let go, rinse and repeat. No more old veterans.
     
  17. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 21018 Funniest Member Award Winner

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    I don't think Duke Johnson fits the mold they're trying to fill. I think they want young low cost low mileage fresh-legged burners who can hit the hole like a cannon shot and gain quick yardage. He has clearly lost a few steps and is more banged up than you want a RB even for rotation.

    If you look at those 49ers backs, they are all home run hitters, not short yardage juke specialists.
     
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  18. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I'd love nothing more. I'm just saying I don't think that's the Saleh/LaFleur style considering they just came from a place that had four RB2s.
     
  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    No thanks. I think spending FA $s on a RB is a waste. The only time I'd ever do that is if it was a horrible RB draft class or I had a glaring hole at RB, that was about my team's only weakness, and there was a great young RB that was available. RB is the easiest position for a rookie to come in, start day one, play at a very high level, and make a big impact. I'm not interested in signing some "decent" FA RB.
     
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  20. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    We already have 2 RBs. If they want 4, there's other ways to get them other than signing them as outside FAs. They could re-sign Adams and draft one or they could draft a RB like Kenneth Jennings/Javian Hawkins and then one like Trey Sermon. That would give them a RB corps, with speed, power, elusiveness, and pass catching ability.
     
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