I'm sorry but somehow you're still completely missing the point, and I'm not the one cherry picking here. I'm looking at broad statistics while you pick small examples within those broad statistics to try to make your argument work.
its hard for a team with the 2nd pick in the draft to pass up a top flight qb in order to try and rebuild a qb who is in his last year of his rookie deal and hasnt shown more than flashes of greatness. has been inconsistent at best. these situations come up only so often. my best case scenario is to get deshaun watson. there is no better scenario than that. he is a guaranteed superstar at qb who is 25, he will be here another 10 years if the jets play it properly. i dont really care what it costs. we have been chasing a top flight qb like him for my entire lifetime and really since joe namath. anything else is a bit of a crapshoot, you can hope that one of the rookies will end up great, but as we have seen time and time and time again. its not a perfect science and more guys seem to bust in the top 5 than become stars at qb. but with it you keep a ton of draft capital and money for free agents. but you have to draft well and turn those picks into players. as they say id rather have a bird in the hand than 2 in the bush. my last choice would be to resign darnold to a very cap friendly deal for 3 years that the team can get out of without any issues if it doesnt work out and they find themselves in the postion to need to draft a qb next year. which creates more draft capital which would mean trade the 2 and get a bounty and just go get a ton of young talented players on draft day. may be another caveat that the pre draft may not look like it has for decades and may look alot more like last year which can change what you dont know about kids coming out.
Trading the #2 for picks or staying put and taking Sewell or Smith is the one thing that they absolutely cannot do. Either would be a fireable offense imo.
Exactly. The draft isn't an exact science. It's a game of probabilities. You usually need a good QB to consistently compete, right? I think we all agree on that. With that in mind, your chances of getting a good QB are generally higher the higher you draft one. It's simple logic.
Sorry, but I think that's a bunch of hogwash. You're using flawed logic and a ridiculous stat that isn't really reflective of reality. Lots of QBs bust/don't pan out. The higher one picks, the better chance one has of getting a better prospect and the QB you want. That's a fact. 55 years of watching the NFL taught me that. The whole thing about overdrafting a QB is absurd imo. If the QB turns out to be a FQB, no one will give a rat's ass where you drafted him. The only important thing is getting a FQB. The chances of doing that are better at #2 than they are at #20.
Exactly. Claiming that you shouldn't draft a QB at #2 because of a "high bust rate", implies that there's something "unlucky" inherently attached to the #2 pick, or some "curse". Common sense tells you that picking #2 gives a team the most players available to pick from minus one, giving you the greatest chance for success. The only thing that prevents a team form being successful with that pick is poor player evaluation. Teams that pick at #2 are almost always bad teams that do poor player evaluations. So the problem is not where in the draft a team picks, it's their ability to properly evaluate talent. Telling a team that evaluates players poorly to not bother taking a QB at #2 doesn't change the fact that they're poor at identifying players who could help them, all it does (if they were to listen to such advise) is enable the QB they would have taken to drop back farther, which would add more "evidence" to the claim that the farther back a QB is drafted, the higher the probability of his success. If you need a FQB, and you believe in your evaluation method, you should take your QB at the first opportunity.
There actually used to be a curse with drafting high, not just for QBs though. It was back before the current rookie salary structure when guys like Bradford would get huge contracts. You were better off with a late first rounder than an early one because the cap hit was greater than the difference in the expected value of your pick. But it doesn't apply to our current situation.
So much of what determines how well a QB does is the environment into which he is drafted. For example, would you feel as confident of drafting Zach Wilson as our FQB if Todd Bowles/Adam Gase was the HC and McCagnan (I've never seen on offensive lineman I liked) was still our GM? Of course not. So maybe, having a new HC with an OC with promise and an up and coming GM who values the OL, we have a better case for drafting a new QB.
Geno had all the physical attributes to be a great QB. He had an introverted personality that grated on his teammates over time as the losses mounted and he wasn't interested in taking his share of the heat. Basically a million dollar arm attached to a personality on the spectrum. Note that when the Jets won during the time he was on the team he was a big part of the reason why. It just didn't happen often enough and he wasn't the kind of guy a locker room could rally around or be led by.
I think we need to take a qb at 2 , if it is either Fields or Wilson If Sam had Mitchs winning % and stats we would love him. his ceiling is Mitches avg
Then he shouldn't been playing then. Being injured and hurting your team is not an admirable trait. It was time to call for a pinch hitter.
Hilarious.https://www.ranker.com/list/best-ohio-state-buckeyes-quarterbacks/ranker-college-football. Please post which ones knocked it out of the park in the pros. You equate college success smoothly translates into the pros. I'm saying with Ohio State QB's it does not. Pro style, dual threat, or flat on running QB does not work for me and especially for the Jets.
the rest of those guys played for other coaches. the only thing justin fields has in common with the rest of the top 5 guys is that they are all black.
He ran for 39 yards per game. He's athletic - that doesn't mean he's a running quarterback. What kind of quarterback do you want based on your bold text? Statue?
