My gut tells me the Texans will keep him even if he sits for one year to both prove a point and perhaps extract greater value next year when the draft class is apparently thin and the FQB market might be more sparse. I figure that JD is coming out of the draft with one of Wilson or Fields at #2 otherwise any half-decent performance from any drafted QB outside Lawrence will just come with the rejoinder that "Jets coulda had him" when Sam continues to crap the bed.
Unfortunately it will be the same sentiment when we draft a QB at 2 and ours is a bust and 2 of the other ones are FQBs.
QB's drafted at #2 have a very high bust rate. This is at least in part because the expectations at #2 are very high and just becoming a decent QB doesn't meet those expectations. That's why taking a QB late in the 1st/early 2nd is more likely to be successful. Nobody would call Teddy Bridgewater/Derek Carr/Andy Dalton busts but if they'd been taken #2 overall they'd be El Busto! Worst of the worst! Total wreckage!
I don't think drafting a QB later in the first or early second has anything to do with where he was taken - it's more to do with who drafts him and that teams picking at the top are usually bad teams and don't usually draft well. Logically, drafting at #2 (or in the top 3) gives you the biggest selection of talent, so your odds of being able to get the 2nd best (at worst) player are their highest. The only variable that prevents that from happening is poor assessment of who that 2nd best player is. IOW, it's not a matter of draft position, but of player evaluation.
It doesn’t matter what they are called. They wouldn’t solve the problem at qb that the Jets have had for all but a few years of the team’s history.
Your logic is a fail. QBs drafted in the top 5-10 sometimes fail because they weren't that good to begin with and the team drafting them was desperate for a QB. Most often when a QB taken that high fails, it's because the team drafting him was awful, and generally, they GM is awful and their HC is awful. That's why they're drafting that high. THAT is what causes the QBs to fail. They're rushed onto the field, don't get good coaching, and don't have a good team around them That is NOT the Jets' situation. By all appearances we have a very good GM who will fix the OL and will surround the QB with quality skill position players. Our new HC is supposedly the best HC candidate that was hired this year. He isn't a Gase hire. He could fail, but I doubt he will. With the staff he assembled and the system that will be used, it would be difficult for the Jets new QB to fail. It's a QB-friendly system, We have a QB Coach with decades of experience, and we have a bright young OC who learned under a very good offensive mind and whose older brother was a great OC and is a great HC. The three prospects that JD is considering are all better prospects than Sam was. They are more accurate, have played the QB position longer than Sam, and thus better understand the nuances and subtleties of the position, are just as mobile or perhaps more mobile, their arms are just as strong or stronger, they don't have the problems with TOs that Sam had and still has, and all of them have better footwork and fundamentals than Sam does. Nobody would have called Bridgewater, Carr or Dalton busts because they were drafted much lower, and usually players taken at the end of the 1st round and lower who fail to develop aren't referred to as "busts." In the end, if a drafted player fails to develop and thrive, it doesn't matter if they're called a "bust" or that they simply aren't any good and didn't develop. What you're advocating is drafting out of fear. You're afraid of failure, so you don't want to take any risk, so you think "playing it safe" will succeed. It doesn't. One doesn't develop a great team by "playing it safe." One doesn't have a great team by drafting a QB who isn't very talented or aren't considered to be great prospectrs (and that's the QBs who are drafted lower). What that does is fail intentionally so you don't wind up disappointed. At best you wind up with someone who is mediocre, but the end effect is the same...you're not a playoff team except in rare, lucky circumstances, and you have little or no chance to win a SB. Winning the SB is why the seasons are played. If one isn't striving to build a team that can win multiple SBs, then one shouldn't be the GM or owner. QBs don't succeed because they are taken at the end of the 1st round top of the second. Those QBs who are taken there fare better because they are taken by better teams, but they generally aren't the best QBs. They are carried by their teams, and are more the game manager types. They aren't the type who can put the team on their shoulders and take them to the playoffs or to the SB.
So I think there are 3 sides here, at least. One that thinks we should trade back because a qb at 2 has a high failure chance, one that's saying it doesn't matter where you pick the qb the failure chance of a qb is based on the team picking, and on group that has no facts or thoughts to back their opinions but just want to says Sam sucks. First off yes Sam was bad this year, we all know that, but he's 23 and can easily become better than any qb not names Lawerence in this draft. Now I think both the other 2 are right. I don't think we should draft a qb at 2. But it's because our team is not good enough for any QB to make it win. Yes if we got watson that could change because FAs would want to come here. We would also still have draft picks most likely. But to draft another high qb with a bad team is just asking for failure. We need to build the team first imo. Otherwise we will just keep failing to develop a FQB.
I totally disagree. To begin with, imo you are flat out wrong about Sam. It's more than he just had a bad year. He's done nothing in 3 years to show that he can be a FQB. He can't see the field, can't read Ds, can't spot blitzers, has little pocket presence, has little experience playing QB (less than 2 years in high school, 2 years in college and not even 3 complete seasons with the Jets), has screwed up footwork, and major league accurage issues and decision-making issues. This is no quick fix. He has ton of physical talent, but the mental/emotional talent is questionable. If he can be fixed and reach his potential, it's probably going to take a year or two, and he probably needs a change of scenery and to sit for a while. Not drafting a QB would be typical Jets stupid. It would be making the same mistake as 2017 when Mac passed on Mahomes and Watson and we wound up having to trade up for Sam the next year. This is a great QB class and one will be sitting there at our #2 pick. We won't have to trade up to get a QB. Next year's QB class most likely will not be a good one, but even if it is, we'll probably be drafting a good bit lower and will not have a realistic chance of getting a QB, which would mean that we'd have to sign some Jag QB to play for at least a year, and two years of Saleh's regime would already be gone. That is not smart in any way, shape or form imo. With our starting over, THIS IS THE TIME to get our new QB so the offense can be designed/built around him and what he does well, and so that the offense and he can start getting their timing down and developing chemistry. We should do this whether we keep Sam as our veteran QB this season or whether we trade him. If we don't trade him, he will walk following the season and at best, we'd only get a late 3rd round compensatory pick. It's possible that we can get more than that this year in a trade and use that to upgrade the team. It is not realistic to think that Sam can light it up here this year, and he may never do that. You have it totally backwards. Teams only build their team first when they don't have the opportunity to draft a FQB prospect, so have no other choice other than to build the team first. Once the team is built, they are drafting much lower and have a near zero chance of getting a true FQB. No NFL GM would pass on taking a topnotch QB prospect when he gets the chance to draft one, and would choose to build the team first. That's just an unrealistic fan idea that ignores the reality of the NFL. You do realize that at the moment, the Jets have 9 draft picks this year with two 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, two 5ths, and a 6th, then next year have 9 draft picks with two 1sts, a 2nd, a 3rd, three 5ths, a 6th and a 7th, don't you? That's 18 picks, and they have a ton of cap space this year, when most teams have little or no space. JD will have NO problem building around the QB he takes at #2. To not take a QB would be a fireable offense.
Right or wrong, if the Texans refuse to trade Watson - assuming Watson is dead-set on getting traded and there are good offers - they’ll get skewered by the media and general sentiment. There will be a ton of pressure. They’d be smart to move him (assuming the Watson-Texans situation cannot be remedied and the Texans can get a good deal).
Thank you - I now feel so much better about the Kyle Wilson's, the Calvin Pryor's and the Darron Lee's not to mention the 2nd round..
I'm not saying this because I agree with it but given everything they've done to crash this entire thing in the name of Jack Easterby - I genuinely believe they do not give a flying fuck what the public perception is at this point.
The Texans are a 6'7" crossdresser wearing a mini skirt and a blonde wig with lipstick smeared all over his face and having a conversation with himself at the top of his lungs. That type of crazy doesn't consider outside opinions.
I agree Sam has done nothing in 3 years. But that said we did nothing to help him. We gave him the worst head coach/ offensive mind we could. We surrounded him with nothing. He had a left tackle last year and a decent slot receiver for 2 year. Other than that he had garbage. Now to my point.. Mahome went to an already build team and was not a a top 10 pick. Deshaun Watson went to a team that had a decent defense at the time and good receivers at the time. He was also not a top 10 pick. He got time to play with decent weapons. Both QBs developed. Josh Allen also went to an already built team. On the reverse side of that I can name Darnold and several others that went to teams with no one. They did not develop. So yeah, we can take a QB. They will have a lot harder time developing with garbage around them. We currently have 2 decent defensive players, a LT and a slot receiver. Maybe a #2 receiver.
The Texans organisation will be around in one form or another long after Watson has retired, the Journo's have descended into madness and the fans will have found something else to gripe about. If I'm in the Texans FO then I'd be secretly pleased that our costly QB is taking a rebuilding season off where he doesn't get paid, doesn't get hit and his contracts carries on another year. Heck! if Bellichick was doing this then we'd all be screaming about some kind of conspiracy.
One thing is for sure, if you take a QB #2 overall, and he doesn’t grow into a pro bowl type talent, youve set your franchise back quite a bit. With that type of investment teams will typically give them at least 3 years. with QBs taken later, you can easily turn the page if needed. imo never take a QB at #2 just because you need one, especially on a shitty team (which is usually why you’d have that pick). Have to love the player.
not as big a deal as the old days because the contract isn't big. its just missing on a draft pick like any other player. But that happens a lot for everyone the worst is ending up like the Eagles. You pay a QB big money to lock him up long term for his potential and he doesn't live up to it
