Figured it's about time to do a full mock offseason for the jets V2. this one will be less wild then the last For this one I decided not to go for watson. The cost of QBs being traded is ridiculous and i'd rather not hamstring the team. I think with the new system sam can get a shot at QB again and we can draft a rookie that fits our new system. Current cap 72.4 mil (it's listed at 62.4 but the cap is expected to be around 185 mil not 175 mil so I added in the extra 10 mil) Jets trades Jets trade 2nd overall to the lions for their 7th overall, 41st overall, and 2022 1st rounder (1 current 1st, 1 future 1st and a 2nd) logic: Lions want to move up for a QB. sliding back 5 places is worth the extra 2nd rounder this year and an extra 1st next year giving us 3 1sts for 2022. The lions didn't want goff in the trade and he was negative value. they have a new regime and want a new rookie QB and the idea of them trading stafford was to move up for a QB likely wilson. current picks 7th overall, 23rd overall, 2nd (34th overall), 2nd (41st overall), 3rd (66th overall), 3rd (87th overall), 4th (98th overall), 2 5ths (130th and 138th), 6th (162nd), 7th (215) That gives us 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds this year as well as next year we will have our 1st, det 1st, seattle 1st, as well as our 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 3 6th rounders, and our 7th Releases Henry anderson 8.2mil Lewis 6.2mil van roten 3.5mil griffen 2.8mil doctson 1mil malone 900k total savings 22.6 mil new cap space 95 mil Logic: anderson hasn't performed up to his contract and doesn't fit our new system. he's expensive and we have better younger and cheaper players on the d-line. lewis and GVR haven't played well and we'll address the OG spot later. giffen hasn't been the same since the injury. doctson and malone aren't anything worth keeping At this point we are loaded with draft capitol and cap space FA's and Resigns and extensions Note with the cap dropping 15% of what it was projected to be (210 mil vs 180 mil) contracts will also go down by 15% this offseason. FAs should be cheaper then in the past. less buyers more sellers. it's a buyers market this year Resign Hewitt - 2years 4mil Maye - 3 years 30 mil elfien - 1 year 1 mil total impact 13 mil new cap 82 Logic: maye is a top safety. he deserves a payday. but he is 27 and it's not a big buyers market. 10 mil is pretty fair for him. I'd love for him to stay. the rest are cheap depth guys. elfien will get a chance to fight for a starting job on a 1 year prove it deal. Extension Extend crowder. he's been our most consistent WR and worth every penny. he'll be on his final year. giving him a 2 year extension to sign him through age 30 makes sense. we'll have him for 2021, 2022, and 2023. currently he counts 11.375 mil for 2021. we add 2 years at 10 mil a year and bring his cap down for 2021 to 8.375 mil. then he counts 11.5mil in 2022 and 11.5 mil in 2023 in years where the cap will jump back up. total savings 3 mil new cap 85 Free Agents Brandon Schreff LG 3 years 45 mil Allen Robinson WR 3 years 54 million Yannick Ngakoue DE 5 years 90 million Matt Milano OLB 5 years 65 million Richard Sherman FS 2 years 10 mil Matt brieda RB 2 years 6 mil Jordan Willis DE 1 year 1 mil Joe Walker 2 years 2 mil Logic: Starting with the big names Schreff comes in to instantly upgrade the o-line which started to catch on at the end of the year. some people prefer thuney and i'd be ok with him as well but I think schreff is just better. Robinson gives us the WR1 we badly need. to play outside with mims and crowder in the slot. Yannick gets to play 4-3DE where he is best suited and gives us a true edge rusher to pair up with Q making a nasty 1-2 punch on the line. Milano gives us some much needed help at LBer and with his skill set fits perfect in saleh's system alongside mosley and could even take over at MLB if we decide to move on from mosley after this season if he isn't the same after 2 years off from football. For the cheaper signings all 4 know saleh's system. 3 of them (sherman, walker, willis) were on SF in 2020. sherman would move to safety to pair with maye. willis and walker are depth and walker is a great special teams player. Brieda will split carries and performed great in SFs system and we have a need at RB and don't need to spend much. Total cap impact 74 mil on average. With structure and backloading for years with higher caps 64 mil new cap 21 mil Mock draft 1st (7) TE Kyle Pitts - I know people won't like TE with a top 10 pick here. But calling pitts a TE is a disservice to his skills. Pitts is a matchup nightmare that should be the next kelce as a TE and fill the kittle role in the offense. When I was watching lawerence film pitts stood out more then lawerence. he's that good. and he's a weapon on offense to go with mims, crowder, robinson, and herndon. 1st (23) QB Mac Jones - he's likely the 5th QB off the board behind tlaw, wilson, fields, and lance. could even be the 6th depending on how people like trask. With that said he's very brees-esque who was a 2nd rounder and while he may not have a big arm he looks the part of a high IQ acurate system QB to run shannahans offense if sam falters or we move on from him in 2022. I'm not high on fields or lance personally. I like wilson a lot but his off the field stuff and injury history worry me to blow a high pick so I think taking jones here makes the most sense for our future and gives us a back-up plan to sam. and if sam plays well and we resign him jones could always be traded for a premium pick in the future. 2nd (34) CB Tyson campbell - perfect fit for salehs defense. we need CB help and free agency and trades already fill many offensive holes. CB is our biggest need at this point. originally I had him late 1st but he's slipping down boards lately and should last to our pick in the 2nd round but still a 1st round talent. 2nd (41) WR amon-ra st brown - now we start to look for some replacements for vets that will leave next year when we need cap room. st brown is perfect to run the deebo samuel role in the offense. he's a 1st round talent in a stacked class that'll fall to the 2nd. a blue collar all around solid WR who may not stand out at the combine but just finds ways to get the job done. jet fans will fall in love with him fast and lafleur will find ways to use him as a rookie 3rd (66) - OT walker little - former top 10 pick who has now missed 2 years of football (injury then opt out) will slide to the 3rd in a loaded class. perfect to replace fant at RT in 2022 3rd (87) - C creed humphrey - stickign with rebuilding the o-line for the future, humphrey gives us flexiblity. we could mcgovern out to OG if humprey impresses as a rookie and start humprey at C or he can sit and learn a year and be depth if he needs the time. either way he's our future center who could improve the o-line as early as 2021 4th (98th) - TE hunter long - with griffins release and brown walking that leaves us with just herndon and wesco. I already added pitts but I can see wesco making the transition to FB for us in this scheme. That gives us herndon, pitts, and long at TE. Think gronk, brate, howard for the bucs 5th (130) - FS james wiggins - we will need some depth at safety. I love wiggins in this draft. can cover the slot WR, fast, great locker room guy, strong. physical freak that could do well in salehs defense and learn form maye and sherman. him and davis could be our future safeties. also will make a great gunner on special teams 5th (138) - WR Warren Jackson - huge 6-6 target at 215 lbs. not a speedy guy but a great red zone guy with a huge catch radius. a bigger slower version of mims. we need more outside WRs and this guy is it. Not sure if he'll ever start or start any time soon but can contribute in the red zone for us. laflaur will find a way to use his size 6th (162) - K Jose Borregales - last year JD drafted a punter in the 6th. This year we take a kicker. after the disaster of the kicker roulette we played in 2020, it's time to invest in one. Borregales has a huge leg and nailed a 57 yarder this season right down the middle and was perfect on XPs and 90+% on FGs including 9-11 on 40+ and 2-2 on 50+ 7th (215) - RB Master teague - this is iffy as he may not declare but if he does he's make a great 7th round pick. I'm not high on perine. besides him we will have brieda and ty. teague could be huge value here to push the vets Estimated Rookie cap charges 12 mil new cap room 9 mil
(had to split it into 2 due to character limit) Depth Chart for 2021 (bold indicates new player, italics indicates rookie) Offense (26) QB Darnold, Jones, Morgan WR Robinson, Mims, Crowder, St Brown, Berrios, Jackson RB Brieda, Johnson, Perine, Teague FB Wesco TE Pitts, Herndon, Long, OT Becton, Fant, Little, Edoga OG Schreff, Elfien, Clark C Mcgovern, humphrey Defense (24) DE Ngakoue, JFM, Zuniga, Phillips, Willis DT Q, Foley, Shepard OLB Cashman, Milano, Huff, MLB Mosley, Hewitt, Walker CB Campbell, Bless, guidry, hall, Ballentine, Jackson S Sherman, Maye, Wiggins, Davis Special teams (3) LS Hennesey P Mann K Borregales KR/PR Wiggins/berrios/ballentine (count above already) Clean up (will leave us with 67 on the roster including non listed players current figured into the cap) cutting off 14 minimum salaries plus ficken since I drafted a kicker adds about 7 mil. less about 2 mil for the practice squad. so add 5 mil. Cap room 14mil This mock I think really sets us up for success. the cap room will be important for 2022 where we don't know what it'll be at but it is looking up. Sam gets another shot and if not his replacement is already on board. If sam falters we let him walk and have jones who will have sat a year in the system. We also have 3 1sts for 2022 to build up the defense but I added talent at every level of the defense this offseason but mostly invested in the offense. 2022 cap outlook Without watson eating the cap in 2022 sam would be more afordable and if not sam, we will have jones on a rookie deal with a good team around him and plenty of money and picks to build it up even more. for 2022 out current salaries are 85.7 mil (24 players) add in the rookies from 2021 12mil (11 players) add in the free agents from 2021 73 mil (7 players) add in the resignings and extensions 23.5 mil (3 players) Total cap 194.20 45 players less the releases from 2021 lewis 7.2 mil van roten 3.5 mil griffen 3.4 mil total cap 180.1 mil 42 players I think this gives us decent flexibility. we need to find 11 players but will have a ton of draft picks including 3 1sts, a 2nd, a 3rd, and 5 late round picks. that's 10 players right there. plus cap flexibility. fant can be cut for 9.65 mil as I drafted his replacement already. Mosley could be cut to save 5 mil and move milano into the MLB spot and draft a cheap replacement on the outside depending on how he plays. Really Depends on the cap. if it's stuck at 185 we'll still carry over 14 mil for a cap of 199mil which leaves us with 19 mil (about 5 after signing rookies) to fill some holes. we won't be spenders in free agency but we won't be screwed. If it balloons back up to around 200 million (which it could depending on the TV deal. we could have 20 mil to spend. our big FAs in 2022 would be JFM, phillips, foley, herndon, guidry, lamaar jackson. We won't be bad off by any means and have some flexiblity.
Nice work, @GasedAndConfused! I like a lot of it. I think the Jets would be a formidable team in 2021 if that happens or something close to it. Not sure about QB though. I think if you take any of those Top 5 QB's, you trade Darnold. To me, the best thing is sign a veteran who is as good or better than Flacco and then draft one of those QB's. Preferably Wilson right now. Then you can have a depth chart of 1. Vet QB 2. Wilson 3. Morgan going into 2021. Eventually Wilson will take over when he is ready. Going in with 1. Darnold 2. Jones 3. Morgan is a little too risky for me because, if Sam plays bad, you'd have to throw Jones in early potentially hurting his growth and the team's playoff chances. Much rather have a vet there to either help Sam or a rookie QB.
We could trade darnold but the point of this is to not give up on him yet and at the same time have a back-up plan in jones. Kind of like when the chargers drafted rivers when they had brees. they were still unsure on what they had in brees and took rivers. The idea is brees plays well and they can keep him or trade him and start rivers. Brees did play well but got hurt so they let him walk for a comp pick and started rivers the next season. we would get a comp pick for darnold walking. or if he plays well we can keep him. morgan is just QB3 for me. not banking on him being anything more then a back-up. I'd rather move down for more picks and grab jones then to take the chance on wilson. his off field stuff worries me, but on film he's the best QB in this class not counting tlaw who I didn't bother looking into too much because he's not an option. FWIW remember the eyar we took darnold I wanted to trade down for more picks and draft lamaar jackson late in the 1st. this is kind of the same thing here. it would have worked then and I think it'll work now. I really like jones on film in shannahans offense.
Yeah, that makes sense. I can't tell how good Jones will be. I only watched a few Alabama games and it seemed so scripted, and the roster was so superior, I couldn't tell if Jones would be good in the NFL or not.
i mean it's impossible for anyone to tell for sure. and he was very well protected. but the one thing I do see is he makes the throws he should make, he's accurate with good placement, good enough arm, and goes through progressions. he doens't wow you but he looks very efficient. Kind of like brady or brees. they don't wow you but they quietly just get the job done day in and day out with high IQ and accuracy. for our system that's what we want, someone to process plays fast and get the ball out. not play hero ball
Always well thought out GAC! I don’t see us grabbing Mac and holding on to Sam as a viable locker room scenario. I also doubt the Lions move up after taking on Goff for now. Creed Humphrey isn’t a 3rd rounder he could push for first round. That’s a lot of FA signings all seem logical but I doubt JD blows his wad right away.
thanks! as far as mac and sam goes, that's pretty par for the course. it's 2 plans at QB. like brees/rivers, favre/rodgers, wentz/hurts, rodgers/love, jackson/flacco, mahomes/smith etc etc. As far as the lions go, their whole point of trading stafford was to get more picks to move up for a QB. they didn't even want goff in the trade. he was negative value. the rams basically paid the lions to take goff. They want a new QB in the draft. goff is just a 1 year rental they had to take to make the trade work. as far as humprey he's slid recently. he'll be a 3rd maybe 2nd rounder. not a 1st though. landon dickerson is in front of him now. Not sure what JD will do but i laid out 2 scenerios so far that he could make work. i'm sure he is weighing his options.
You are to be commended for doing the amazing work on this. I also like how you posit going with Sam for another year. Also like the trade figured in because if the Jets decide to go with Sam, which I hope they do, it increases the likelihood of it happening. Now for the bad news, LOL. While I think he is an amazing talent, I don't like the Pitts pick at 7 for the following reasons. 1) I feel the greater need is WR and there are a few that fit in here: Smith or Chase would be my pick. 2) TE is not a great need for the Jets. Herndon started to show value in the last few games of the season. While he is not Pitts, he is good and we have 2 backup TE's in Griffin and Brown that have shown reliability in blocking and catching. Also don't like the Jones pick. To me it is a waste, because you're going to have a 1st round pick commanding 1st round money sitting on the bench. It also creates an unwanted QB controversy to have a QB drafted that high. The minute Sam has a bad game, there will be the inevitable calls for Jones to take over. Secondly, I think Jones is very good, but not so good that the Jets must draft him this year. If Sam turns out to be deficient, there are many more options that can be looked at next season. Keep up the good work!!!
thanks! as far as your concerns with the picks, you have to remember we sign allen robinson. that's our WR1. then we have mims and crowder. I also draft st brown in the 2nd. taking another WR really burries talent on the depth chart. we will have 4 really good ones to start the year.. pitts is better then herndon by a lot. he's not a typically WR. he's a travis kelce/gronk/kittle type of WR at TE. a mismatch nightmare for defenses. more then another WR would be. the drop off from a WR at 7 to st brown in the 2nd is small talentwise. the drop off from pitts to the next TEs is massive. as far as QB goes it gives us a back up plan. I like jones a lot. the ravens did it with flacco, flacco got hurt and lamaar came in and took them to the playoffs and never looked back. he has 3 playoffs in 3 years, 3 pro bowls, and an MVP award. keeping sam won't prohibit us from taking a QB in the 1st. sam is on the final year of his rookie deal. he'll be in his 3rd system already and 3rd HC. he is on a prove it year. if he falters we have jones waiting in the wings. if he balls out we could trade jones or sam for a 1st rounder. same thing the chargers did with brees/rivers
I do think Jets will trade down, but I'm not sure that the Lions are the team it will happen with. My only other comment would be I think Elfein will cost a bit more than that.
I see your logic and agree that it is plausible. My thinking is that Chase and Smith are exceptional talents which is why they are considered top ten picks by a lot of experts. I think of how OBJ was such a dangerous receiver for the Giants, and I think Smith and Chase can be that kind of receiver for the Jets (minus all the baggage of course.) I'm not convinced the ones you are targeting have that kind of explosiveness. As for Jackson/Flacco, to me it was clear the Ravens were ready to move on from Flacco a 13 yr. vet. when they drafted Jackson, it was just a matter of time. Not the same situation here in NY. As for SD, it was the guy they let go who won the the Super Bowl, not the guy that replaced him so you don't want to use that argument.
pitts is also an exceptional talent. and at a position we will need more and a position in the NFL that lacks talent overall. at this point at TE you have kelce/kittle as the top 2. then waller. then a bunch of jags. pitts will be a top 4 TE in the NFL. chase and smith could be good as well. most likely will be, but the NFL is stacked at talent for WR and they are typically easier to find then TEs. plus I'm thinking of players that fit our system. saleh is gonna want his kittle matchup nightmare.
I think the Lions legitimate like Goff. Their new GM helped move up and draft him with the Rams. If they make the move for a QB it will be if Goff fails next year and their 1st from LA are worth more to move up. If Creed slipped to us in the 3rd that would be really good for us. I really like him as a prospect.
Good work. 2 things. I love Pitts but Im not taking two TEs within 4 rounds. And I dont think the Lions want to trade up for a QB this year.
I don't like the decision to both keep Darnold and draft a first round QB. What would Darnold need to do in the first year of this offense to get a new contract and keep another first round QB on the bench? Signing Ngakoue and Sherman and drafting Campbell in the 2nd round should help with the pass defense and I think Hall will be a decent starter, but you are letting Poole go and not bringing in any veteran help at cornerback.
Historically the Jets do not throw to a TE. They haven't since Mickey Shuler. I would love that pick if they would actually utilize that position. But the Jets have a myriad of problems that need to be addressed.
I don't think they do. They hired a director of scouting. we don't know how he felt about goff but even that doesn't matter. when the GM that drafted and extended him wanted to get rid of him thats very telling. I don't think the lions want to build around goff. he's already a huge downgrade from what they had in stafford.
