A pick analysis - what is 2nd overall worth?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by GasedAndConfused, Jan 27, 2021.

  1. tomdeb

    tomdeb Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,392
    Likes Received:
    3,107
    I totally agree and posted something like that weeks ago. The #2 overall should NOT go in any package for Watson. The most I would offer is Seattle's number 1 this year, and then a number 1 in each of the next two years. That is three number 1 picks, more than fair for a player who won't play for the Texans anyway. If Houston wants Darnold, then subtract some of the above compensation. My personal preference is to go with Sam and trade down from #2 twice (get a fortune in picks) and build around him. But if we are hell bent on Watson, who IS a great talent, don't fork over #2 in any package. If that is not enough for Houston, hang up the phone.
     
  2. zace

    zace Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2008
    Messages:
    7,430
    Likes Received:
    2,809
    I couldnt agree with this more.

    There is no way in hell the jets trade the number 2 pick for him. Douglas has not given any indication hes that kinda gm

    Then if we do and Watson fails, everyone will go, oh thats such a jets move, even the the media in all its stupidity is urging it

    Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
     
    hornblower, tomdeb and James Hasty like this.
  3. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    9,741
    Likes Received:
    9,451
    Who is Houston supposed to replace Watson with? Someone they draft at #23? That's insane. They need a draft spot that will allow them to get Fields, Wilson or Lance.

    I get not wanting to give up the #2 and not wanting Watson at a huge price, but the QB position needs to be addressed this year. Rolling with the worst rated passer, who can't read defenses, has poor mechanics and throws interceptions at an alarming rate is career suicide for Douglas. I don't care who you surround Darnold with. He had open guys last year and either missed them or didn't see them. He needs to be someone else's problem at this point. We'd be lucky to get a 3rd for him.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
     
    Borat likes this.
  4. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2003
    Messages:
    15,963
    Likes Received:
    5,237
    If they get the # 2 pick they have a replacement for Watson.

    Aside from that maybe we throw in Sam or a couple later picks but if we give up # 2 they shouldn't expect much else.
     
    cval likes this.
  5. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    9,741
    Likes Received:
    9,451
    I was responding to the person that said we should not include the #2 pick. Even with the #2 pick it doesn't guarantee Houston picks the right guy. But it does give them a better shot, or at the very least, a chance to pick they guy they want.

    Most guys that are screaming about how valuable the #2 pick is want to trade it away for more picks. What makes it valuable is that QB needy teams will want to have the chance to pick one of the top QB's not named Lawrence. Well what team is more QB needy than the Jets??? We are the poster child for QB needy. So if we keep it and not include it in a package for Watson, we need to use it to find a replacement for Darnold.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
     
    Borat likes this.
  6. SOJAZ

    SOJAZ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2015
    Messages:
    2,011
    Likes Received:
    2,518
    My thoughts exactly. trade down and stockpile the picks... you can still get a QB later... Yes you keep Sam and if he works out then we are golden if not, we still filled multiple holes that exits and make the "overall" team better. BTW- I would be surprised if they actually traded for DW, my teak is the foregoing.
     
    hornblower, Doreblade, tomdeb and 2 others like this.
  7. tomdeb

    tomdeb Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,392
    Likes Received:
    3,107
    Ouch! Didn't know you had so much hate for Darnold. I guess the jets should just release NOW Sam, right? Never mind the fact that he has had virtually no decent pro coaching, jack squat for wide receivers, a non-existent Mike MacCagnan OL in front of him, and breakaway/touchdown threat Frank Gore to hand off to. Yeah, he has been given every chance with great coaching and weapons, hasn't he? I think Darnold has shown a lot of fortitude recently voicing that he wants to stay with the jets considering what he has (not) had to work with.

    As to who Houston plays at QB next year (outside of the fact that it is Houston's concern, not ours), I did not know that ONLY #2 overall picks can play QB in the NFL, and no one else. Brees is probably going to retire. You think the Saints are going to shut down because they don't have the #2 overall pick next year?

    Finally, many forget that Houston has little leverage in this deal. Watson will NOT play for them next year. Getting three first round picks for a guy that won't play for you is a good deal for the Texans. Giving up that #2 pick in any package for Watson is an overpay for the jets.
     
    hornblower and ColoradoContrails like this.
  8. bicketybam

    bicketybam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    9,741
    Likes Received:
    9,451
    I don't hate Sam. I just think he's a terrible QB. As for the reasons why, it really doesnt matter because I feel he's too far gone. He's been using the same poor mechanics for 3 years. You aren't changing that in a year. Plus I don't think he is a smart QB....when to throw the ball away instead of getting sacked, throwing into triple coverage, etc.

    Houston is going to want to replace Watson in the draft and not only will the #23 be trumped by another team, the chances of finding a FQB aren't as good at that spot as it would be at #2.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
     
    GreenWhiteandGold likes this.
  9. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2006
    Messages:
    5,726
    Likes Received:
    3,887
    I don't think that will get it done. Houston is looking for immediate impact in return. Hopefully the Jets propose this and get's shot down by the Texans and we move on to our entire draft.
     
    ouchy and The Dark Knight like this.
  10. wellemann

    wellemann Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    42
    Likes Received:
    41
    I think it would be good trading with Lions. Get their 1st rnd next year. They are bad and with a rookie qb and a HC wanting to bite people in the kneecaps they might have a top 5 pick in 2022.


     
    boozer32, Noam and James Hasty like this.
  11. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2010
    Messages:
    5,383
    Likes Received:
    7,441
    This. It is concievable we could get the Lions 7th pick, their 1st rounder next year and whatever 1st rounder they get for stafford. If they want a QB they need to go through us. The 7th pick is a great spot. One of Adams or Chase could still be there.
     
  12. wellemann

    wellemann Member

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2013
    Messages:
    42
    Likes Received:
    41
    More and more I really want Watson or trade down. Get more picks next year. Especially 1st rounders from bad teams.
    This draft is so uncertain, with a lot of prospects opting out this year and still the demand for qb at the top will be high.

    The more I read about it, there is a lot of value and players with potential in the second round. Guys that opted out and match our needs. Like LT Little, OL Vera-Tucker, WR Moore.
    And we have need at deep positions like cb, ol, wr where someone will falls to the second round.

    To me the high picks are more of a gamle this year bc there is less information on the players. Trade down and build slow.
     
    tomdeb, ouchy and Noam like this.
  13. Bellys Lies

    Bellys Lies Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Messages:
    487
    Likes Received:
    322
    I think Watson stays in Houston. He is worth more to Houston than any other team because of his dead money if traded and his value to the community.. I think all of the coaching hires are for Watson. I believe he has their attention. We need to focus on our rebuild and to do it right., no shortcuts. Why pay Watson for 2 yrs while we get our shxt together
     
    Jedi mind tricks likes this.
  14. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2010
    Messages:
    5,383
    Likes Received:
    7,441
    Let's look at what the Rams gave up for Stafford. A late 2022 and 2023 first and a 2021 third plus Goff. That is about 620 points in value plus or minus Goff. Because Goff's contract was so bad he might have a negative value.

    But again the return is in the 400 to 600 point draft value chart range. The OP was a great analysis by the OP which shows how much more GMs value draft picks over players and once again how simple minded sports writers over inflate the value given up for players. The media is once again focusing on the Rams giving up 2 1st rounders to portray the trade as a haul when in fact it was equal to the 30th pick in the draft plus or minus Goff. Our 1st rounder is worth more than 4 times the compensation given up by the Rams or in media terms it is worth more than 8 first rounders which again is greatly misleading.

    I am really curious to see the eventual return for Watson. The media is saying it will be 4500, 5500 maybe even more points. Everyday they seem to raising the expected return. Cutler was traded for 1500 it should exceed that. My guess is it will be closer to 3k.
     
  15. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2003
    Messages:
    15,963
    Likes Received:
    5,237
    I think 2.6K is more than fair.

    If pick #2 is not enough for Watson we have plenty of other things we can do with the pick.
     
    Noam likes this.
  16. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    7,235
    Likes Received:
    9,923
    Who's Adams? Maybe I just forgot, but I don't remember any prospect named Adams who's supposed to go in the top 10.
     
    Noam likes this.
  17. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2010
    Messages:
    5,383
    Likes Received:
    7,441
    Sorry I meant Smith. But it seems to be moot right now if the Lions adding Goff means they are unlikely to trade up.
     
  18. Jedi mind tricks

    Jedi mind tricks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,248
    Likes Received:
    2,479
    THANK YOU! Ppl on this board have convinced themselves houston is gonna just give him to us for free at this point. It's going to take A LOT to get Watson. If you're not comfortable/willing to pay the price then you don't really want him.
     
  19. Jedi mind tricks

    Jedi mind tricks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,248
    Likes Received:
    2,479
    I agree that Houston legitimately does not want to move on but they have some serious issues in that org. I don't think Watson steps foot in the building without major MAJOR changes and it doesn't seem forth coming. The front office is likely in a prayer circle over the matter as we speak
     
  20. hornblower

    hornblower Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2010
    Messages:
    1,523
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Terrible?
     
    tomdeb likes this.

Share This Page