You're trying to use one metric to make the comparison, which is passing yards, and ignoring the overall performance of their first three years. Look at the overall body of work. Cutler was a turnover machine and fumbled the ball 11 times, threw 18 interceptions and only accounted for 27 touchdowns. He was only sacked 11 times that year. He won some shootouts but he also lost a bunch in large part because of turnovers. Denver threw the ball 80 more times than they ran it that year because their defense was so bad. It's similar to Watson's situation this year but the results were nowhere near similar. It's a bad comparison.
While I disagree with you in the comparison. There are 2 perspectives the buyer and the seller. If I am “buying” Watson, I am not looking at what another team “paid” or truly overpaid for Cutler and think that is what I should give up. If I am the seller that is another whole story.
There is a way for the Jets to acquire Watson and still have 1st round draft picks to build the team going forward. First the offer would be Jets #2 pick, #23 pick, and Seattle's #1 in 2022. Then the draft picks could look like this: -Acquire DeShaun Watson for 3 1st Round Picks. Jets 2021 Draft Picks: 1. #28 overall from the Saints in a Sam Darnold deal. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6 Jets 2022 Draft Picks: 1. (Jets original pick) 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. Do you guys think that is enough ammo for Joe Douglas to build his roster with or is that giving up too much for Watson?
value wise just the seattle 1st but when you are talking about the top pick and a guy like tlaw it's likely nothing would budge them outside of a ricky williams like trade
To me, a big question is, what is more valuable: 1. Darnold and the second pick 2. Tua and the third pick If Houston likes Tua, they have no reason to trade with the Jets. They get the QB they like and a blue chip draft pick. Can probably draft a premier WR for Tua to grow with, giving them a blue chip QB, WR, and LT. If Houston doesn't like Tua, they probably need to trade with the Jets. If you trade with the Dolphins you are behind two teams that are probably taking QBs. If you have a strong preference between Fields and Wilson, you cant really risk trading to three. The Jets can trade Darnold, and basically forward the return to Houston.
If you have a QB in the draft that you value above all of the others the third pick just won't do. Zack Wilson vs Justin Fields is more important than Sam vs Tua.
I dont disagree. But if you think Tua is as good or better than Wilson and Fields, there is no reason not to trade with Miami. If you love Wilson or Fields, you need to trade with the Jets.
The latest Stafford rumor has him going to the 49ers. The trade value chart has picks 7 and 12 equaling the second overall pick plus our fourth rounder. Considering that the Lions would be moving up for a QB we could probably make that trade without giving up the fourth rounder. With picks 7, 12 & 23 in the first round we could have the right QB fall into our lap at any of those spots. Lance, Jones, or Task could end up being the best QB in this class. It is really difficult to predict what a first round QB will end up doing when they get to the big leagues. Imagine getting our franchise QB at one of those spots while keeping all of the other picks to build around him.
I agree that the highest rated QB in a draft doesn't always turn out to be the best. But using that as a strategy would be nuts. I wouldn't pass on a chance for the second best rated QB for the 4th or 5th just because they could end up having more success. Now if I had 2-4 all rated the same, then I could see me doing it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Here's an interesting article on success rates from top 10 picks: https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/03/what-are-the-odds-of-success-for-a-top-10-pick/ "These numbers validate something that Redskins fans in particular already know: it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That’s more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted." "The unescapable conclusion is that the draft is very hard – barely up to the level of a crapshoot even at the top of the draft. In general, it’s much more likely than not that your favorite NFL team’s top 10 pick is going to either be average or just fail, not become a major franchise-caliber player. Only 10% of top 10 picks become big-time, franchise-changing multiple All-Pro players, whereas just 51% of them even make one Pro Bowl, and 8.5% of them outright fail in spectacular fashion."
If you told me this was the consolation to not getting Watson, I'd be very happy. Nabbing Trey Lance at 7, while retaining 12/23/34 would be huge for Jets draft capital. I'd even be on board continuing to trade back from 12. Doubt it would happen, but man would that be awesome.
One interesting stat is that half of the top 10 picked QBs made at least one Pro Bowl. That is not terrible. Also we don't just have top 10 pick, we have #2 overall, and this draft seems to have good QB talent, which increases the value of the pick. Hard to put a value on this, but with Lawrence in this draft, and 5 other QBs having spectacular seasons, #2 pick this year should be worth pretty much same as #1 nearly every other year, and that value has to be pretty significant.
You could also trade sam whilst at the same time trading a 4th rounder for Jimmy G. You have a QB that knows the system, a young QB and lots of capital. God Joe's office whiteboard must be a wild read right now Sent from my M2007J20CG using Tapatalk
The “points system” makes me laugh it’s like nerds who just made shit up to justify stuff i know I know Every team GM uses it and believes in it but it’s still ridiculous to me because it does not take into account the unique talent of each draft
#2 is such a nice chip to have. It can help get us Watson or a blue chip rookie or a bounty of picks. Which one will Douglas choose?
that is true but the chart is a starting point not an end all be all. for instance the jets paid more to move form 6 to 3 then the chart becuase the chance of sam/baker/allen was worth more then say if the QB class sucked and quinten nelson was the top choice. like for right now the jags wouldn't give up double the value of the 1st pick because of tlaw. the chart just gives a starting point in negotiations.
$64,000 Question: who REALLY wants this prima dona who just signed a $156 MM contract -- after they got rid of Hopkins -- and NOW is unhappy and lets his team twist in the winds ? How much would YOU pay this guy to have him say in 2 years, "I want to leave" ?
