there is no right answer. it's a really hard decision for JD to make. I'm gonna trust what JD does. I don't think anyone is wrong. I just think not everyone is looking at it from every angle. My only point is 3 teams have seen the most sustained success in the NFL over the past decade. steelers, ravens, pats. following their model would be best statistically and JD was part of the ravens that won a SB
This is an awesome thread, and thank you Max for pulling this together. it’s funny but I find myself reading these posts and can almost pretty much agree with ALL of them! Which obviously is odd, right? I think this has been one of the most interesting and intelligently debated threads I’ve seen on this board. Partly because the debate is data based and has not resorted to name calling or finger pointing or whatever all right...we’ll done! if I were to summarize my thoughts after 3 pages, I’d say that 1. I believe you need a great QB to consistently compete for Superbowls 2. There may be some sweet spot of how much percent of the cap should be devoted to this great QB....clearly some rookies on great teams skew that % downward but if you subscribe to that number then you’re essentially saying you need a system where you always have a rookie QB and have to keep drafting one every 4 to 5 years or so...but it seems like that sweet spot is somewhere in the 10%-12% range? 3. With respect to trading for Watson, I love the point someone already made about being in catch up mode and behind the eight ball...that is, it’s one thing to give away a lot of draft capital to get that established QB and the related cap hit when you’ve already got a solid core....it’s another thing entirely to give away that draft capital and be left with a modest, normal run rate of picks to use to catch up the roster which is full of holes everywhere....we still need OL, WR, CB, pass rusher, RB...I think we need all those extra picks to catch up...we are a 2-14 roster, like it or not. That resonates with me a lot....it’s not like we’re even with Buffalo and Miami, let alone KC or Pitt in the AFC....and just a QB away. We are a QB, WR, OL, CB, OLB,DE,RB away. 4. There is a ton of uncertainty on the cap....and we have no clue how it will resolve. I’m not convinced that 2022 cap will be way higher than the $175m 2021 cap is...and if that’s the case, then what does Watson’s 2022 cap hit lay? It could go way higher than 16%, which is already higher than just about every past Super Bowl winner, right? Of course, cap hits can be managed, but there is always a cost. man I don’t know!!! IF Watson is available (and who really knows, right?), it is a unicorn event, and in many ways we are in a good spot to get him with multiple picks and plenty of cap space. The only real detriment is that we are THAT bad that we NEED all those picks to just get us to an average roster...not great, just average. so JD has the picks and he has multiple paths to explore. Will be a fascinating spring!
Two weeks ago JD had perhaps the most challenging off-season in front of him that an NFL GM has ever confronted. At least he's got his head coach under contract now.
The truth is that you don't consistently compete for a title without elite QB play. Teams manipulate their QB salaries to create cap space from year to year, but you can't fake production at the QB position. Since 2000, there have been 40 Conference Championships. How many got there more than once without an elite QB? Flacco and Sanchez represent 5 of 80 Conference Championship appearances and 1 Super Bowl win. The rest are one and done or hall of famers/MVPs/multiple Pro Bowl QBs.
I dont agree with that. I think even his Jets predecessors had it harder as they dealt with an ugly cap situation and meddling owners picking their guy as HC and making the GM work with that Douglas has a clear checkbook, multiple high draft picks and (allegedly) autonomy to pick whoever he wanted as HC to work under him. That's a GM's dream
Cap Room, Cap Space, Math.. I'm not good at. However... I've always been under the impression over the years from watching teams endlessly go Into cap hell, struggle to stay relevant. Those teams usually had the same issue, which Is, a HUGE contract attached to one player. Which took up just enough room to keep teams from getting those 2-3 players they needed to find a completed team. I know It's a very touchy, tricky, tedious issue. For all teams. GM's. I'm okay with paying our own FQB. I'm just not so sure about mortgaging the future by giving up valuable, important, and CHEAP assets (In Draft Capitol) to another team for a FQB. Plus pay HUGE money for his services. I would rather find our own FQB. Easier said than done, I get It. Still. It's a hard topic. I hope JD and Co. figures It out because It certainly Is a headache. That's without question.
am i the only one who finds this fascinating? you want to go all in on Justin Fields and QB is soooo important and yet you have 3RBs and 2 defenders better than the GOAT, Brady????
the biggest issue is covid and cap uncertainty. without covid happining the cap for 2021 would have been around 210 million. instead we are looking at 175-180 million. the loss in cap alone covers watsons salary. had it no been for covid it would be a non issue. the positive of it is for teams like the jets with a lot of cap room, free agency should be more team friendly. we could look to sign players below their value. as the cap goes down, so does contracts. not a lot of spenders out there either. The wild card i all this is TV deals which is where most of the money comes from. plus the extra playoff game helped out too. the current deal expires in 2022 and talks are already in motion. if the TV deals enter a bidding war as ti seems it may it's possible for the cap to jump up by 2022 back to where it would have been (220 milionish) or even more. if that's the case having watson won't be as big of an issue and could even turn out to be a bargain. the thing is are you willing to bet the future of the franchise on the hopes of what could happen with the cap knowing if it doesn't then your pretty screwed. Take dak for instance. the market price for him when they started to negoitate was around 22 mill but with looming contracts coming up dallas knew it would be higher. they offered him 26 million. he balked at it. he wanted 30 million. had they signed him for 6 years at 30 million a year at this point it would be a bargain. he would have been the highest paid QB at the time but by now barely in the top 5. now daks value is in the 35-40 mil range. really covid screwed it all up
Yeah that’s true...teams always balk at setting the new high water mark, and yet history shows that each year raises the mark, and what was once ludicrous is cheap even 2 or 3 years later
I didn't mean challenging as in a terrible situation. I meant the sheer number and magnitude of the decisions in front of him.
If I had to assemble of team of all stars and could pick from all eras to play a game against someone else's all star team. Brady wouldn't even reach the top 10 in my QB choice.
I think Brady would have won multiple SBs without taking less money, but regardless, there's no Brady willing to play here, so we have to make do with the options we have.
that's the thing about draft picks. they are mystery boxes pats were always cash strapped. if brady was paid what he deserved I highly doubt it.
Over the last decade, the Pats were usually paying Brady 15 million a year, as opposed to, say, Aaron Rodgers who was getting about 20 million a year. You really think an extra 5 million a year would have cost the Pats their titles?
Brady’s cap hit wasn’t deceptively low, it’s a black and white fact. Future cap ramifications don’t negate the cap impact of the year being evaluated. it’s completely nonsensical to argue there’s a broad range of cap hits therefore is no cap amount that would be too high. Your numbers actually dispute your conclusion. Only one QB’s cap hit exceeds 15% — Matt Ryan’s. Why haven’t you calculated Watson’s projected cap hit? It’s absolutely necessary in order to come to that conclusion you are making. Is it because starting in 2022 Watson’s cap hit will be 20%. The fact that there isn’t a single QB on your list close to that should tell you your conclusion doesn’t flow logically from your own evidence.
There's definitely a percentage of the cap that's too high for an elite QB, but I don't think any elite QB contract has reached it.
So the cap range we are studying here is .55 - 15.91%, with an average of 8.26%. how in the world do you come to the conclusion that 20% fits within the range or average?
