The Expensive QB Myth

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by MaximusD163, Jan 22, 2021.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    I just wanted to take a few minutes to actually show everyone with real numbers exactly how reasonable it is to pay an elite QB. I’ve taken the cap hits of Super Bowl QB’s over the last 10 years and compared their percentage of that years salary cap that they account for.

    I’ll include both teams playing in each Super Bowl since I believe either team who makes it could win and is therefore relevant

    2010 (Cap: Uncapped, but I’ll use the 2009 number of $123 million for percentages)
    Aaron Rodgers-$6,500,000 (5.28%)
    Ben Roethlisberger-$10,355,832 (8.42%)

    2011 (Cap: $120 million)
    Eli Manning-$14,100,000 (11.75%)
    Tom Brady-$13,800,000 (11.5%)

    2012 (Cap: $120.6 million)
    Joe Flacco-$8,000,000 (6.63%)
    Alex Smith-$9,250,000 (7.67%)

    2013 (Cap: $123 million)
    Russell Wilson-$681,085 (0.55%)
    Peyton Manning-$17,500,000 (14.13%)

    2014 (Cap: $133 million)
    Tom Brady-$14,800,000 (11.13%)
    Russell Wilson-$817,302 (0.61%)

    2015 (Cap: $143.28 million)
    Peyton Manning-$17,500,000 (12.21%)
    Cam Newton-$13,000,000 (9.07%)

    2016 (Cap: $155.27 million)
    Tom Brady-$13.764,706 (8.87%)
    Matt Ryan-$23,750,000 (15.3%)

    2017 (Cap: $167 million)
    Carson Wentz-$6,062,804 (3.63%)
    Tom Brady-$14,000,000 (8.38%)

    2018 (Cap: $177.2 million)
    Tom Brady-$22,000,000 (12.42%)
    Jared Goff-$7,619,365 (4.3%)

    2019 (Cap: $188.2 million)
    Patrick Mahomes-$4,479,808 (2.83%)
    Jimmy Garoppolo-$20,000,000 (10.63%)

    Now let’s look at the 4 teams going into championship weekend:

    2020 (Cap: $198.2 million)
    Tom Brady-$25,000,000 (12.61%)
    Aaron Rodgers-$21,642,000 (10.92%)
    Josh Allen-$5,867,191 (2.96%)
    Patrick Mahomes-$5,346,538 (2.7%)

    As you can see, there is a broad range of QB cap hits from championship teams over the past decade. From as little as 0.55% all the way to 15.3% most veterans are in the 10-12% range. Also keep in mind that the Patriots have a $13.5 million dead money charge this year for Tom Brady, which is 6.81% of their cap this year. They did that to keep his cap hits lower in previous years, which make his percentages deceptively low.

    Now let’s take a look at what Deshaun Watson’s cap hits would be over the next few years if the Jets traded for him. Keep in mind the cap has grown $10-$11 million per year, with only 2021 as an outlier. The Cap for 2022 should pick up where it left off, around $220 million.

    2021 (Cap Floor: $175 million)
    Deshaun Watson-$10,540,000 (6.02%)

    2022 (Probable Cap: $220 million)
    Deshaun Watson-$35,000,000 (15.91%)

    2023 (Probable Cap: $231 million)
    Deshaun Watson-$37,000,000 (16.02%)

    2024 (Probable Cap: $241 million)
    Deshaun Watson-$32,000,000 (13.28%)

    Watson would be within range of the veteran QB’s who have made it to the Super Bowl over the past decade. Also, since there would be no prorated money in his contract for the Jets, it would be easy to convert his salary in any year that it might be necessary and lower his cap hit.

    I hope this dispels the myth surrounding paying an elite QB.
     
  2. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,286
    Likes Received:
    28,714
    Great work! Some will see it and learn, but for the others it was probably a wasted exercise. Facts are meaningless to them. Their minds are slammed shut. They don't think teams need an elite QB. They think "a" QB is all that is needed, or they'll come up with some other lame reason not to trade for Watson. It's truly sad how some of our posters can't think outside the box, can't adapt to differing situations, or get past their outdated ideas. It's kind of ironic. They hated Gase, yet they're the fan equivalent of Gase.
     
  3. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    You're taking the wrong lesson from your own research.

    What you should be doing is looking at what happens to the less-expensive QB's that have won Super Bowls and to their teams after they get paid.
     
    #3 Br4d, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  4. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2016
    Messages:
    15,178
    Likes Received:
    22,332
    If you're referring to the Joe Flaccos of the world, they aren't applicable to Watson because Watson is an elite QB. If you're going with the "Seahawks haven't won the Super Bowl since they paid Wilson" argument, there's selection bias there because it's extremely unlikely for any team to win a Super Bowl in a given year no matter how good they are. So if there's a team that won with a QB on a rookie contract, the odds are they wouldn't win the Super Bowl again even if they got to keep that QB on a rookie contract.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  5. twown

    twown Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2008
    Messages:
    2,941
    Likes Received:
    3,884
    I really appreciate everything you do, Max, and the work you put into this post, but "within range" is a weird of putting it.

    The guy's cap hit, as a percentage, will exceed all of those guys, except for ONE year of Peyton freakin Manning, for the last three years of the deal.
     
    #5 twown, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  6. Losmeister

    Losmeister Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2011
    Messages:
    3,882
    Likes Received:
    2,741
    he's comparing DW to the data. nuthn else.

    brady kept going back, but thats unique. ur thinking of flacco.
     
  7. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    Again, the numbers don't lie.

    The only QB who won another Super Bowl after his big deal was inked was Peyton Manning and he was carried there because the team he won with was built before he joined them and signed the big deal.

    The QB who was in the conversation every year was Tom Brady and he made salary sacrifices on an annual basis to make that happen.

    If you really want to make the case that Deshaun Watson can win a SB with the Jets counting for 20% of the cap you have to go places that nobody has gone before. You need to suggest that the Jets will miraculously find ways to put together a championship team when they are already paying their QB like they just won. In fact paying their QB more than the previous SB winners were paid *after* they won.

    I don't believe it is possible and I'm not going to change that belief unless you make a really good argument that the Jets have access to some previously unexploited resource that will allow them to build a championship team at the same time they trade a huge package for Deshaun Watson and pay him like he's already won one for them - pay him better than all the teams before them have paid their QB's after winning the Super Bowl.

    It just isn't going to happen. It's fake news of the worst kind and it is going to keep the Jets in a pitiful state if it occurs.
     
    Centiment, azhar80, Jets79 and 6 others like this.
  8. nyjetsgreen

    nyjetsgreen Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2012
    Messages:
    87
    Likes Received:
    169
    I have no problem with cap money issue the amount of draft capital the Jets will have to give up to acquire Watson would hurt them rebuilding this team first off the Jets have massive holes they lack weapons pass rusher decent CB just to many holes to fill with free agency they really need to keep the draft capital trade back and build a team around Darnold or just draft fields as a cheaper alternative to Watson. To make even worse the Jets could of drafted Watson but instead took a safety that makes the trade even harder physiologically to do. How effective were the Texans who lost their elite WR and other talent even with Watson at QB they were 4-12 so while a franchise QB is important the expense to get Watson would kill this franchise and end up putting both Saleh and Douglas out the door in 3 years. Which is why don't think it's happening both know the same thing.
     
    ouchy likes this.
  9. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2003
    Messages:
    15,793
    Likes Received:
    5,000
    You know we could just give that money to Dak Prescott and use all of our draft picks to fill out the team.
     
    PJ4Ever, Noam, LAJet and 2 others like this.
  10. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    If we were only a QB away from a viable SB run.. Sadly, that is NOT the case here.
     
    Centiment, ouchy and James Hasty like this.
  11. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    First of all, you’re pulling this 20% number out of thin air. Also you seem to have missed 2 things. A lack of prorated money in Watson’s deal means it can be restructured at any point to lower the cap hit. Also, you’re 100% incorrect that Manning was the only one who won after their deal was signed.

    -Aaron Rodgers won in 2010 after signing his first extension in 2008

    -Eli Manning won in 2011 after signing his first extension in 2009

    -Tom Brady won in 2014, 2016, and 2018

    -Peyton Manning won in 2015

    6 of the last 10 winners have been on a veteran contract.

    If you look at the runner up SB teams with veteran contract QB’s:

    -Ben Roethlisberger in 2010 extended in 2008

    -Tom Brady in 2011 and 2017 after multiple extensions

    -Alex Smith in 2012 extended multiple times before that

    -Peyton Manning in 2013

    -Cam Newton in 2015 extended in 2015

    -Matt Ryan in 2016 extended in 2013

    -Jimmy Garoppolo in 2019 extended in 2018

    Thats 8 of 10 SB runner ups.

    That means:

    -60% of the last 10 SB winners were vet contracts

    -80% of the last 10 SB runner ups were vet contracts

    -70% of all SB participants in last 10 years had veteran contract QB’s

    There is such a widespread misunderstanding of the salary cap, and I don’t understand why people don’t realize that cap numbers can be changed situationally.

    Whether or not the Jets actually get Watson, (and I am on the record multiple times saying the most likely case is that he stays in Houston) a team without an answer at QB should absolutely make an attempt to acquire him.

    It also sounds from your logic that you never want to pay a QB a second contract, and your solution is to draft one every 3 years.
     
  12. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    Dallas is just going to Franchise tag him again. There is no chance he is available on the open market.
     
    All Gas No Shake likes this.
  13. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    There are 2 answers to this issue.

    1. The cap may be higher than my projections, I just wanted to keep in on the lower end in this situation.

    2. Brady, both Manning bros, and the rest, all of them had prorated money in their contracts. Watson wouldn’t because it would stay with Houston. If necessary, the Jets at any point can convert his salary to signing bonus and lower the cap hit in any given year. There is no reason that his contract would be a hinderance to their salary cap as long as it is managed correctly.
     
  14. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    The “Rookie QB contracts” and what happened after they got paid:

    -Joe Flacco got paid in 2013
    —Record: 50-46
    —Over .500: 3
    —At .500: 2
    —Under .500: 1
    —Playoffs: 2/6

    -Russel Wilson got paid in 2015
    —Record: 62-33-1
    —Over .500: 6
    —At .500: 0
    —Under .500: 0
    —Playoffs: 5/6

    -Carson Wentz got paid in 2019
    —Record: 13-18-1
    —Over .500: 1
    —At .500: 0
    —Under .500: 1
    —Playoffs: 1/2

    Jared Goff got paid in 2019
    —Record: 19-13
    —Over .500: 2
    —At .500: 0
    —Under .500: 0
    —Playoffs: 1/2

    Patrick Mahomes got paid in 2020
    —Record: 14-2
    —Over .500: 1
    —At .500: 0
    —Under .500: 0
    —Playoffs: 1/1

    These are the only teams with rookie contract QB’s to have made the Super Bowl over the last 10 years. Most of them have a pretty small sample size after they’ve been paid. If you combine all of them, the stats look like:

    —Record: 158-112-2 (.581 winning percentage)
    —Over .500: 13
    —At .500: 2
    —Under .500: 2
    —Playoffs: 10/17

    So apparently if you made the Super Bowl with a rookie contract QB, each year after you pay him you can expect:

    —Over a 75% chance to have a winning record.
    —A 59% chance to make the playoffs.

    So what exactly is your point?
     
  15. NYJFOREVER

    NYJFOREVER Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2011
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    9,025
    Cap space is so easily manipulated by teams that want to keep certain players. I remember a couple years ago, the media was pushing the narrative that Dallas was going to have an issue signing all of their players. Everyone thought there was no possible way they could keep Cooper, Zeke, La'el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin. Lo and behold, all those guys are still with Dallas. Dallas still has 14M in cap going into 2021 too.

    As for that last point, It seems like this is exactly what some members of this board would do.
     
    FJF and bicketybam like this.
  16. James Hasty

    James Hasty Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2003
    Messages:
    15,793
    Likes Received:
    5,000

    You say that but the Cowboys let a couple players go for cap reasons and boy did they have a bad season.

    Sure they lost their starting QB but they weren't winning any prizes before that happened.
     
  17. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2011
    Messages:
    5,359
    Likes Received:
    5,077
    I think the important thing to keep in mind is that choosing the right players to pay is important, but if you make those decisions correctly you can keep most players you want.

    Also, I have no doubt the Cowboys could have won that awful division if Dak stayed in. They had a tough set of matchups early in the year but they would have gotten 6 NFC East games and they were pretty close in record even without Dak.
     
    Jets79, bicketybam and NYJFOREVER like this.
  18. NYJFOREVER

    NYJFOREVER Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2011
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    9,025
    And losing a QB that was on pace to throw for 6000 yards and throw for 30 touchdowns is pretty significant.

    Elite QBs like Mahomes or Watson make up for your team having flaws.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  19. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    1,019
    Likes Received:
    1,308
    Watsons 15 and 16% numbers seem way higher, no? And while one might say that’s only 4 or 5 % that translates to money like 10 million which could be used on other players

    for the record I’m intrigued by Watson but I’m not following the argument. The list has a lot of guys paid lower or who took team friendly deals (eg watson)

    some of those teams eg rams and eagles are not the same since they paid their guys big money
     
    IIMeanDeanII likes this.
  20. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2004
    Messages:
    32,237
    Likes Received:
    30,554
    The league is becoming more and more quarterback driven by the day. Look at the quarterbacks in the championship games right now. There are no exceptions - they've all been fantastic this year.

    Everyone's always so worried about the damn cap. Let's go get a player that has a chance to become a Hall of Famer if his trajectory continues and at the very worst we could end up with Philip Rivers and have a chance to win every Sunday regardless of who we're playing.

    Quarterback contracts haven't inhibited a team from getting better. Bad drafting has inhibited that. If the Seahawks had drafted more than 2-3 good players in the past six years (two of which are receivers) and had a fucking clue how to evaluate college offensive lineman, Wilson would've had another SB appearance with his big deal.
     

Share This Page