Peter King: "Jets Struck It Rich" When Fields KO'd Clemson

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by JetsKickAss, Jan 4, 2021.

  1. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Also the Jets may like one of the lesser lights a lot.

    Trading the #2 and picking up a franchise QB in the late 20's is the kind of move that could set the Jets up for a decade, especially if Becton is real.
     
  2. 24McNeil

    24McNeil Well-Known Member

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    The Colts traded Elway for 3 first rounders and he went the the superbowl 6 times winning twice. the Colts during that time were a league laughing stock and that didn't change till they had the 1st pick, yet again, and used it on Manning.

    A week ago I was for keeping Darnold, no longer. Very rarely do you get a chance to select a qb prospect like we will this year, so we must act on it.
     
  3. REVISion

    REVISion Well-Known Member

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    I know you've said the chances of the #2 QB taken working out is around 35% - do you know what it is for the 4th, 5th QB's taken? I would imagine it's much lower than 35%.
     
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  4. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    More Peter King: He said JF answered the questions about himself and that the Jets could get "2 good #1's" -- so maybe he is talking about a pick <10 and another pick <20.

    I think he left the door open to MORE picks, but he said the #1's would be 2 and 2 "good ones." I think he is saying what I quantified in some other threads: the #2 pick = 2,600 Value Points and we can now probably get closer to 3,500 points, with about 1/2 current and 1/2 deferred.


    BTW, he said this on NFLN, not ESPN. Sorry.
     
  5. RochesterJet

    RochesterJet Well-Known Member

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    Wasn't this the argument in 2018 when we traded up to Draft Sam? The issue here is, there is no Guarantee that Fields, Lance or TL is going to be a franchise savior.

    Football is the consummate team sport and right now this roster is more than a FQB away from .500 let alone a playoff or SB birth.

    Stockpile as much draft capital as possible and use the #2 pick as house money to do so. I hope Fields has a huge game against BAMA and we are able to use that to our advantage via Trade

    I'd take a flyer on Jameis or Marcus Mariotta at this point over developing a kid like Fields. Let guys come in and compete for the right to be the starter and build talent around them. It's much easier to develop a QB like that then the rout we tried with Sam.
     
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  6. RochesterJet

    RochesterJet Well-Known Member

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    Different era's man and a different situation. Elway was not going to Indy.Period.
    He was getting traded or he was playing baseball for the Yankees.

    And if you're comparing Lance or Fields to Elway...Different situations
     
  7. Jets79

    Jets79 Well-Known Member

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    i don’t think it’s recency bias ... to me, it’s seeing how he plays against tougher competition. Alabama puts a lot of guys in the NFL every year, and many of them on D....they’ve had strong D lines and strong DBs. That defense will be as close as you can get to an NFL defense while still in college.

    so it’s not really recency bias....it’s trying to evaluate a college prospect and project how he will fare when he steps up in competition to the NFL.

    and especially for Fields, I think it’s a very real concern. He’s put up great numbers against shitty defenses, and that’s to his credit. But he also played very poorly against two good defenses, where he showed some concerning flaws....he was not accurate, he didn’t read the field, and he didn’t have 10 seconds to throw to wide open wide receivers. Well guess what...the NFL defenses will be even tougher.

    so seeing him light it up against Clemson was impressive to me...a big game, pressure, he took a huge hit that clearly hurt him, and he showed the guts and toughness to come back and play well. That showed me a lot. Leadership, toughness, willpower, etc. some great intangibles.

    but if he struggles against a good Alabama D, it will be a legitimate concern. And if he does well, then it shows a lot.

    so to me, it’s not so much just one game affecting my view of him, it’s seeing him in a game that is crucial, must win, pressure packed, against a really good D.

    I haven’t been a fan, but the Clemson game showed me a lot, and if he can duplicate that against Alabama, then I’d feel a lot better about taking him at 2.
     
  8. Noam

    Noam Well-Known Member

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    If JD feels good about Lance or Wilson trading back for 3 1st rounders is pretty tempting. That would mean 6 1st round picks over the next two years allowing Douglas to not only take a QB but to build a team around that QB.

    Bad teams often kill good QB prospects but a good team can hide a lot of a young QBs weaknesses.
     
  9. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    No not at all. I have liked Fields for a long time and have been intrigued by him since the start of this season. His performance against Clemson was nothing short of incredible and if he performs similarly against Alabama, then I am sold on us taking him at #2.

    If he performs that good against Alabama, it shows his ability against incredibly tough defenses in college football. Which is a HUGE factor
     
  10. 24McNeil

    24McNeil Well-Known Member

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    Different situation?? we're talking about drafting a qb, not elways demand to be traded. i'm pointing out the fact it was a disastrous move for the colts, regardless of how it happened. my POINT is to draft a qb when you can because if that qb becomes what he is projected to become, like elway, it will be something we will regret for many year, like the colts had to.

    how is that comparison?
     
  11. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    In terms of star value it is about the same. In terms of working out overall it is lower. This is largely because late 1sts and early 2nds produce stars at about the same level the #2 does, particularly in drafts where a lot of QB's are taken #1 to #36.


    This is the list of all the QB's taken on the #2 when a QB was taken on the #1: Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin III, Donovan McNabb, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Archie Manning. That's the complete list back to the merger.

    This is the list of the 4th QB's taken through pick 36 (4th pick of the 2nd round): Jordan Love (included for completeness), Josh Rosen, Derek Carr, Brandon Wheeden, Christian Ponder, J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman, Daunte Culpepper, Jim Harbaugh, Tony Eason.

    This is the list of the 5th QB's taken through pick #36: Lamar Jackson, Andy Dalton, Cade McKnown, Ken O'Brien.

    This is the list of the 6th QB's taken though pick #36: Colin Kaepernick, Dan Marino.

    I use pick #36 because that is the point at which all the teams have said no once and the worst teams have said no twice. It's also the point at which QB picks tend to drop off because the odds on finding a QB after that point are very random, much more so than in the first 36 picks.

    Note that when at least 6 QB's were taken in the first 36 picks the move worked out for the team picking the 5th or 6th one 5 out of 6 times. When there is that much QB talent in the draft there's no reason not to stick your thumb in the pie with a late 1st/early 2nd because the plum you will pull out could be very valuable.

    Note that the QB picked on the #2 pick after a QB went #1 worked out maybe 3 out of 7 times - this if you include Archie Manning and Carson Wentz as working out. The other QB taken #2 overall was Mitchell Trubisky. I give Manning the benefit of the doubt because the Saints teams he played for were terrible - however it is true that he played for 11 seasons with a 35-103-1 record and only got to 8-8 once in his career. This is the take the #2 QB and then do not support him model.
     
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  12. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    That was the asking price for Elway at the time and nobody coughed it up. He got traded for a 1st + top 10 pick by Denver in the end.

    Elway was also the best prospect in football history since Namath at the time and nobody was able to get it done. Elway didn’t want to play for the Colts because the owner was a known drunk that was going to move franchise the following year.

    RG3 was the biggest blunder of them all by Washington and all franchises learned from it. Nobody is giving up 3 1s anymore after that.
     
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  13. JetsKickAss

    JetsKickAss Well-Known Member

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    And here's the thing....

    When folks talk about picking up an extra #1.....the #1 is this year, probably teens or lower....or next year, usually the same.

    It's NOT like you are moving from #2 to #5 and picking up #8 at the same time. It's not like a draft where the Top 10 are all future All-Pros and you can get a Chase Young at #9 or something like that.

    You're getting a worse player -- maybe your #2 QB -- and doing it for a guy who might be another Darron Lee. Or picking around the same slot as Lee was taken.....or lower ! :eek:

    It's a HUGE risk.

    That's why I liked what the Colts did with us: they wanted three #2's not a #1......they wanted 3 bites at the apple.
     
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  14. Poeman

    Poeman Well-Known Member

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    But Fields has a real strong body of work. He was up in Heisman nomination last year and the big ten championship game this year he had a bad thumb but he didn't fuss about it so it doesn't get brought up much.

    His shining moment came against Clemson but the reason why Alabama game is interesting is so we can see if they are prepared to stop him or not
     
    #54 Poeman, Jan 4, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2021
  15. Poeman

    Poeman Well-Known Member

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    Worked out in their favor
     
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  16. LongIslandBlitz

    LongIslandBlitz Well-Known Member

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    How about we just draft Fields instead???I dont care about the extra picks you say that like were gonna do something big with them.
     
  17. RochesterJet

    RochesterJet Well-Known Member

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    Again, Elway was never going to play a snap for the Colts- even if they drafted him!!! SO yes, different situations. Comparison still sucks. Apples and Grapes

    And wasn't Sam a Franchise altering pick in 2018? How did that work out?

    This team is more then Justin Fields away from being close to .500

    You trade the pick and stockpile as much talent as possible.

    Chris Hinton who was the centerpiece of the Elway trade, while not John Elway, was a 7X pro bowl and a 5X All-Pro
     
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  18. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    Fields has been a very interesting prospect. He is really good but he also has not been tested under the bright lights against elite defense's.

    His first test was this past weekend against Clemson. Even after potentially breaking his ribs, he continued to tear them apart in a playoff game. That's big time. If he can do something similar against Alabama, it proves he can perform at an elite level against elite talent. That, for me, solidifies us needing him at #2
     
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  19. Poeman

    Poeman Well-Known Member

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    Id say Zach Wilson hasn't been tested against elite defenses and bright lights too.
     
  20. horsehead

    horsehead Well-Known Member

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    I'd bet good money Fields lays an egg vs Bama.
    One, he is likely pretty banged up after the Sugar Bowl...he took a beating!
    Two, because Jets.
     

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