I meant "crazy" as in "crazy good" or "great" if Douglas doesn't like any of the QBs in the draft after Lawrence. Much, much better than staying put and taking Sewell. Of course, if he really likes one of the QBs, then it would be crazy for Douglas to take the deal. I totally agree that a quality starting QB is better than a bunch of position players. If Douglas loves or really likes Wilson or Fields, I'd rather he take him at #2 or trade down a little and take him. I didn't look at the draft value chart. I was just thinking about with all those picks, Douglas could totally rebuild this team in a couple of years. Now that you mention the draft chart, however, that's not enough value in return, so maybe we get their 3rd and 4th round picks this year too, and their 1st and/or 2nd in 2023 as well, or they give us Mustert or another starter at Edge or CB. I'll let you figure out the points. In retrospect, after hearing the points disparity, I agree that would not be a good deal.
I personally don't like treating the draft trade value chart as gospel, since I doubt teams really use this one and each draft is different. The value is in the player, not the number. Since you have used the RG3 example. Just for comparisons sake (and since it's the most available), here is the ESPN/Scouts Inc ratings on QBs dating back to 08. 99 Rating: Andrew Luck 98 Rating: Matt Ryan 97 Rating: Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III, Trevor Lawrence* 96 Rating: Mark Sanchez 95 Rating: Matthew Stafford, Blaine Gabbert 94 Rating: Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Joe Burrow, 93 Rating: Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Tua Tagovailoa, 91 Rating: Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Zach Wilson*, Justin Fields* 90 Rating: Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Dwayne Haskins, Trey Lance* 89 Rating: Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater, Mitchell Trubisky, Drew Lock, Justin Herbert I'm sure these ratings can change a bit between now and then with Wilson, Field and Lance, but at this point the perceived value of these 3 is quite a bit less than what RGIII was at the time. RGIII getting hurt is irrelevant. Wilson's rating of 91 is the same as Goff and Wentz, who coincidentally are the two of the three most recent 1st/2nd picks to be dealt. Since RGIII, four times a team has traded up for a QB in the top 3 - Goff, Wentz, Trubisky and Darnold. For Current/Expected Total, I used the current points for that year and the 16th pick in the round for future draft picks like you did for your RGIII model. RGIII TRADE, 2012 Rams Trade: Pick 2 (2,600). Total: 2,600 Redskins Trade: Pick 6 (1,600), Pick 39 (510), 2013 1st Rounder (Pick 22, 780), 2014 1st Rounder (Pick 2, 2,600). Current/Expected Total: 4,110 (2,110 present, 2,000 future). Actual Total: 5,490 (2,110 Present) JARED GOFF TRADE, 2016 Titans Trade: Pick 1 (3,000), Pick 133 (39.5), Pick 177 (19.4). Total: 3,058.9 (3,058.9 Present) Rams Trade: Pick 15 (1,050), Pick 43 (470), Pick 45 (450), Pick 76 (210), 2017 1st Rounder (Pick 5, 1,700) 2017 3rd Round (Pick 100, 100). Current/Expected Total: 3,370 (2,180 present, 1,190 future). Actual Total: 3,980 (2,180 Present). CARSON WENTZ TRADE, 2016 Browns Trade: Pick 2 (2,600), 2017 4th Rounder (Pick 139, 36.5). Total: 2,636.5 (2,660 Present) Eagles Trade: Pick 8 (1,400), Pick 77 (205), Pick 100 (100), 2017 1st Rounder (Pick 12, 1,200), 2018 2nd Rounder (Pick 52, 380). Current/Expected Total: 3,127 (1,705 present, 1,420 future). Actual Total: 3,285 (1,705 Present) MITCHELL TRUBISKY TRADE, 2017 49ers Trade: Pick 2 (2,600) Bears Trade: Pick 3 (2,200), Pick 67 (255), Pick 111 (72), 2008 3rd Rounder (Pick 70, 240): Current/Expected Total: 2,717 (2,527 present, 190 future). Actual Total: 2,767 (2,527 Present) SAM DARNOLD TRADE, 2018 Colts Trade: Pick 3 (2,200). Total: 2,200 Jets Trade: Pick 6 (1,600), Pick 37 (530), Pick 49 (410), 2019 2nd Rounder (Pick 34, 560): Current/Expected Total: 2,960 (2,540 present, 420 future). Actual Total: 3,100 (2,540 Present) Based on these 5 trades, RGIII is the clear outlier in expected value traded, which based on the way these QBs were valued is not surprising. If you take the average of the 5 trades, the team acquiring the rookie QB gave up 3,256 points. The average present points traded was 2,619. It is worth noting that two that gave up the most present value by far (Trubisky and Darnold) did not sacrifice a future No. 1. Now, let's go to the proposed mock trade with the 49ers Jets Trade: Pick 2 (2,600). Total: 2,600 49ers Trade: Pick 15 (1,050), Pick 46 (440), 2022 1st Rounder (exp 1,000), 2022 2nd Rounder (exp 420), 2022 3rd Rounder (exp 190), 2023 3rd Rounder (exp 190). Current/Expected Total: 3,290 (1,450 Present, 1,840 Future). While it is light in immediate value, the overall value is in line with the average of those five trades. It is higher than what Wentz, Trubisky and Darnold got and if you take value of the extra picks the Rams got, is only 21 points less than what Goff got. As for your 49ers projections, I know they were in the super bowl a year ago and got crushed by injuries, but the 28th pick assumption you made, you're expecting them to win 12 or 13 games next week (right now the 12-3 Steelers have pick 28). I know, when healthy they are very good, but expecting them to be 6 wins better next year with a rookie starting QB is isn't realistic at all IMO. If we change it from pick 16 to pick 21 (which would currently be the Rams, who are the second of three NFC wild cards), the Future Value is 1,500 instead of 1,840. Because of how much of the pick value is tied into future years, it is slightly light in value, but by nowhere near the amount you are saying. You want to use RGIII as the baseline for what pick #2 is worth, that's your prerogative. But based on the last 5 QB trades, it's not in line with the likely value.
Kudos for the analysis! I don't think you can equate a QB's actual value to a stand alone number either (I think that's your point despite all the "math" above?). A QB will be worth different amounts to different teams. Plus I've yet to see where raw numbers really track with reality. As to what the Jets should get for the #2 pick this year? In general terms "Whatever the market will bear". More specifically, I'd want a team's first, plus another first this year, plus a 2nd a 3rd this year, plus their 1st and 2nd next year (or maybe instead of the 2nd next year, a first in 2023). All of that is dependent on how far back they're coming form. If outside the Top 20 I'd want more. And BTW: Where is Mahomes's value number above?
They had Mahomes as an 85, which obviously was a terrible evaluation. The reason I used ESPN/Scout Inc. is not because I think their rankings are gospel, but because it was the easiest place to get 12+ years of QB data in terms of perceived pre-draft value. For the most part, the value those QBs fetched in a trade falls in line with the order they were ranked. Darnold could be viewed as a discount acquisition relative to his ranking, but that was also the only trade where a team got 3 top 50 picks so there was a more immediate pay off.
Plus the #6. Sam Darnold cost us the #6 , #37 and #49 in 2018 and the #34 in 2019. That's not just 3 second rounders, that 2 high 2nd rounders and a mid-2nd round pick. Then Maccagnan failed to get talent around Darnold in his first two seasons. This is one of the worst sequences for an NFL GM in history. It probably set the Jets back 5 years.
Great analysis, DJ. I appreciate your perspective and you are right, the RGIII trade was somewhat of an outlier with a clown owner like Daniel Snyder handing over the keys to the vault. I don't know where those QB ratings come from, but some of them are nuts. Joe Burrow below Jameis Winston ? Were the evaluators on LSD when they made the rankings for those two ? Blaine Gabbert = Matt Stafford ? Wonder where Jamarcus Russell would be on that list.....
Because SanFran missed on some high picks and traded others....I wonder if they would be willing to give up the necessary haul UNLESS they ABSOLUTELY love a QB in the 2021 draft and are convinced that they can't risk JimmyG blowing their open window of opportunity. They sorta blame him for the Super Bowl loss, FYI.
For what ? That's the MLB equivalent of having a kick-ass farm system and losing 100 games at the major league level.
NOBODY here or who covers the NFL or the Jets thought it was a bad deal at the time. The problem was MacCaganan missed on so many picks in 2015-17 that it made even a mini-haul for the #3 pick more expensive in retrospect. Next to Jacksonville, NOBODY missed on more 1st and 2nd and 3rd Round draft picks than the Jets the last 5 and 10 years.
I'm curious. I don't see Patrick Mahomes name anywhere on that list. What was his ranking? I also see other QB's names missing from that list. EDIT: I see that you have already answered that question and the boobs had Mahomes at an 85. IMO every single one of those scouts should be fired and on the unemployment line. Also, imo lists like this point out the blindness/incompetence of scouts, and it helps explain why some teams' drafting has been so bad. For Mark Sanchez to be rated that high, it's insane. For Sam Bradford and RG III to be on the same level as Lawrence is laughable. For Blaine Gabbert to be that high and Baker Mayfield to be that low is ridiculous.
Thanks, I knew RGIII was an outlier, but I legitimately didn't know how that proposed 49ers package compared to Goff and Wentz and the other ones. And, yes I did quite a few double-takes on some of those ratings too lol. It was mainly to reinforce what my memory said about RGIII's value compared to other top QBs entering the draft. I do think he and that trade get a bad rap. I feel like with any other organization, they exercise a lot more caution with his knee late in his rookie year and from there, who knows how it goes. But alas, that's why the Johnson brothers are ranked No. 31 among owners instead of 32!
This. The fact that MacCagnan was able to protect the 2019 1st rounder and avoid the potential disaster that befell the Rams and Redskins, was rightfully praised. The reason its a bad trade is because the evidence points to it being a bad pick. If Darnold was producing like Josh Allen, no one would be complaining about giving up that extra second rounder.
Fansided has a mock out with a proposed Jets 49ers trade . The Jets trade down and wind up with #11 and #42 and the 49ers first, second and third round picks next year. Imagine that haul? That would give the Jets an extra second round pick this year to go with their two firsts and two thirds, and leave them with 3 first rounders next year along with two second rounders and I believe three third rounders? JD would be all over that assuming the new coach wants to stick with Darnold. If Darnold continues to stumble next year there would be a lot of ammunition to move up for a QB in 2022.
You do that so you can build a deep, inexpensive core team. Pats did it for years. Having plenty of draft capital also allows you to take calculated risks. For example, we could easily pick up a falling QB this year in the late 1st knowing that we have 4 1sts in the next 2 years. If you don't have all that draft capital missing on the pick would be catastrophic.
One more thing I just want to add in regards to the No. 2 pick and recent history. It easy to say just trade down if you're not 100% sold on Wilson, you think drafting another OT is a waste, taking a WR at 2 is poor value, etc. But here's the truth, unless someone falls in love with a QB, trading down is not realistic unless you are willing to sell the pick at a discount relative to the draft value charts. Here are all the trade-ups into the top 6 for a non-QB since 2011 when the rookie scale was introduced. Cost in parenthesis. 2011: Julio Jones 6th (26, 59, 118, 124 and a 2012 No. 1 that was pick 22) 2012: Trent Richardson 3rd (4, 118, 139, 211) 2012: Justin Blackmon 5th (7, 101) 2012: Morris Claiborne 6th (14, 45) 2013: Dion Jordan 3rd (12, 42) 2014: Sammy Watkins 4th (9, a 2015 No. 1 that was pick 19 and a 2015 4th rounder) Based on the trade chart, Julio and Watkins were the only ones where the team trading up ended up giving excess value. I fully realize and understand that some view Sewell as a once in a decade type of OT prospect, but recent history suggests that the only way someone will pay the price is if they are madly in love with Wilson or Fields.
