Draft Value

Discussion in 'Draft' started by MaximusD163, Sep 16, 2020.

  1. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    This is a topic I go back and forth with a lot of people on, particularly @NCJetsfan so I’m sure he’ll have thoughts. These were my pre-season rankings at each position, and I promise I did not take draft status into account making these rankings, I only looked after the fact.

    OT

    1. Tyron Smith (1st)
    2. Lane Johnson (1st)
    3. David Bakhtiari (4th)
    4. Trent Williams (1st)
    5. Ronnie Stanley (1st)
    6. Terron Armstead (3rd)
    7. Laremy Tunsil (1st)

    Take: To find an elite OT you need to target the 1st round. 5/7 1st rounders.

    OG

    1. Zack Martin (1st)
    2. Quenton Nelson (1st)
    3. Ali Marpet (2nd)
    4. David DeCastro (1st)
    5. Richie Incognito (3rd)
    6. Joe Thuney (3rd)
    7. Brandon Scherff (1st)

    Take: The top 3 rounds can net you an elite Guard, 1st round raises the chances. 4/7 1st rounders. (B. Brooks not on list due to offseason injury.)

    C

    1. Jason Kelce (6th)
    2. Rodney Hudson (2nd)
    3. Maurkice Pouncey (1st)
    4. Ryan Kelly (1st)
    5. Frank Ragnow (1st)

    Take: 1st round is still your best bet for an elite Center. 3/5 1st rounders.

    RB

    1. Christian McCaffrey (1st)
    2. Ezekiel Elliot (1st)
    3. Saquon Barkley (1st)
    4. Dalvin Cook (2nd)
    5. Derrick Henry (2nd)

    Take: The first round will get you the best RB, but elite RB’s are a luxury once you have a good offensive line. A lot of 2nd/3rd rounders make up the best after these top 5. 3/5 1st rounders.

    TE

    1. George Kittle (5th)
    2. Travis Kelce (3rd)
    3. Rob Gronkowski (2nd)
    4. Darren Waller (6th)
    5. Zach Ertz (2nd)

    Take: You do not need to target the 1st round to get an elite TE. 0/5 1st rounders.

    WR

    1. Julio Jones (1st)
    2. Michael Thomas (2nd)
    3. DeAndre Hopkins (1st)
    4. Mike Evans (1st)
    5. Tyreek Hill (5th)
    6. Davante Adams (2nd)
    7. Amari Cooper (1st)
    8. Allen Robinson II (2nd)
    9. Keenan Allen (3rd)
    10. Chris Godwin (3rd)

    Take: 1st round is not necessary to obtain an elite WR. 0/5 of my honorable mentions are 1st round picks. 5/10 1st rounders.

    QB

    1. Patrick Mahomes (1st)
    2. Russell Wilson (3rd)
    3. Aaron Rodgers (1st)
    4. Lamar Jackson (1st)
    5. Matthew Stafford (1st)
    6. Drew Brees (2nd)
    7. Ben Roethlisberger (1st)
    8. Deshaun Watson (1st)
    9. Matt Ryan (1st)
    10. Carson Wentz (1st)

    Take: Clearly you need to target the 1st for an elite QB. 8/10 1st rounders.

    IDL

    1. Aaron Donald (1st)
    2. Fletcher Cox (1st)
    3. Chris Jones (2nd)
    4. DeForrest Buckner (1st)
    5. JJ Watt (1st)
    6. Cam Heyward (1st)
    7. Kenny Clark (1st)

    Take: Finding an elite IDL who can rush the passer needs to be a 1st round priority. 6/7 1st rounders.

    Edge

    1. Khalil Mack (1st)
    2. Myles Garrett (1st)
    3. Danielle Hunter (3rd)
    4. Nick Bosa (1st)
    5. TJ Watt (1st)
    6. Chandler Jones (1st)
    7. Cameron Jordan (1st)

    Take: Edge is a clearly a 1st round priority. 6/7 1st rounders. (V Miller not on list due to preseason injury.)

    LB

    1. Bobby Wagner (2nd)
    2. Demario Davis (2nd)
    3. Darius Leonard (2nd)
    4. Eric Kendricks (2nd)
    5. Lavonte David (2nd)
    6. Fred Warner (3rd)
    7. Roquan Smith (1st)

    Take: 2nd round is the target zone for an elite LB. 1/7 first rounders.

    S

    1. Jamal Adams (1st)
    2. Minkah Fitzpatrick (1st)
    3. Harrison Smith (1st)
    4. Kevin Bears (3rd)
    5. Tyrann Mathieu (3rd)
    6. Anthony Harris (UD)
    7. Eddie Jackson (4th)

    Take: 1st round may have the most talented players but not necessary to find an elite Safety. 3/7 1st rounders. (D. James not on list due to preseason injury.)

    CB

    1. Stephon Gilmore (1st)
    2. Tre’Davious White (1st)
    3. Marathon Lattimore (1st)
    4. Jalen Ramsey (1st)
    5. Richard Sherman (5th)
    6. Marlon Humphrey (1st)
    7. Marcus Peters (1st)
    8. Darius Slay (2nd)
    9. Byron Jones (1st)
    10. Xavier Howard (2nd)

    Take: 1st round is where you’ll find the athleticism required to play CB. If you’re lucky the very top of the 2nd round might feature an athlete of necessary caliber. 7/10 1st rounders.
     
    #1 MaximusD163, Sep 16, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2020
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  2. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    As always, good work. I agree with your take on OT's, Edge, CB's, QB's, and TE's. When it comes to WR's, it's true that one can find good ones after round 1. But, if there's a highly regarded prospect with no major flaws, he should at least be considered. For a team like the Jets, an argument can be made that it's our biggest deficiency on the roster and there are a few prospects who warrant 1st round status. Smith, Chase, and Waddle are in that category. Any of them would boost our WR group and give us that game changing weapon. Assuming we don't take a QB with our pick, Sam will need WR's he can grow with. I'd be willing to wait until 2022 to address Edge if it means the offense is in place by 2021.
     
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  3. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Excellent work/research. I don't keep up with the rest of the NFL that much, so will accept your selections for the top of their positions. I do disagree with your ranking of some of the players, especially at QB, but that's not really important for the purposes of this thread, so will not address that.

    I pretty much agree with your findings of which rounds in which elite prospects need to be taken. The major disagreement I have is at WR, as you would expect. While elite WRs can be found in rounds lower than the 1st, if one wants one's choice of the best WR to fit one's scheme and with the traits/talent/character one wants, one will have to quite often need to take that WR in the 1st round. Your wording after each position group is slanted and carefully chosen, but not always accurate.

    With any of the position groups, elite prospects can sometimes be found outside of the 1st round. There are reasons for that. The draft itself is a bit of a crap shoot. Talent evaluation and projection of a player's ability is not an exact science. It's often more art than science. Sometime players are late bloomers. Sometimes players are playing in a system that isn't the best for their skill set. Sometimes players are able to play a position in college which they will be unlikely or unable to play in the NFL due to size/speed/strength, and so they have to learn a new position in the NFL. Sometimes players struggle with injuries in college, then get to the NFL and stay healthy.

    As far as the OL goes, I don't think one needs 5 elite players. In fact, if one has 5 elite players, then one isn't going to have cap space to pay elite skill position players or one's QB. I think one only really needs an elite LT, and maybe C. I think that one can have a very good OL with one average OG, an above average/very good OG, and either a very good or excellent RT. Brandon Moore was an elite level OG and he was a UDFA DT when signed by the Jets.

    With regards to the TE position, I'll be interested to see your rankings in a year or two after the two Iowa TEs that were taken in the first round (Fant and Hockenson) last year develop further.

    I don't think that teams need an IDL that can rush the passer. It's a bonus if you can get one, but it isn't necessary.

    I don't know how they've all turned out, but I remember several ILBs taken in the 1st round over the last 3-5 years who were highly-rated prospects. One went to the Niners and was a star, and he stunned everyone by retiring a year or two ago. Myles Jack was another. There is another who suffered a major injury either his rookie season or last year of college. If Jack and that other ILB have recovered fully and playing at the level which they were projected, I think they should probably be among your top ILBs. Basically, I agree, however that one can find elite and excellent/very good ILBs in the 2nd and even the 3rd round.

    CBs don't have to be taken in the 1st round to have the athleticism and to be good enough to play in the NFL. That is misleading. Not every CB has to be elite, nor are they going to be. There are a lot of good, solid CBs in the NFL that were taken in other rounds and who even signed as UDFAs.
     
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  4. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    First off, you are right that not every player on your team needs to be elite, teams have a limited number of selections to realistically octagon elite players. My lists were not meant to intend you need elite across the board, merely indications of where to search for and aim for one if you want an elite player at that position.

    Myles Jack was not a 1st round pick, he was a 2nd round pick. I’m assuming you mean Patrick Willis for the 49ers, but he was taken in 2007 over 10 years ago, and draft trends have significantly changed since then. If you mean NaVorro Bowman, he was a 3rd round pick in 2010. the fact that both are not playing speaks to how the longevity of LB has diminished in the NFL. If you mean Reuben Foster, he was picked 31st overall and he was released after 1 season because of off the field issues. He’s been on Washington as a backup since.

    As for pass rushing IDL’s I think they are very valuable. A lot of Super Bowl rosters have featured a pass rushing IDL recently, and part of that is that teams are not investing as heavily at IOL.

    2019 KC: Chris Jones
    2019 SF: DeForret Buckner
    2018 LAR: Aaron Donald
    2017 PHI: Fletcher Cox
    2016 ATL: Grady Jarrett

    The 2013 and 2014 Seahawks had Michael Bennett who was an end but regularly rushed from inside, and the 2019 49ers had the same in Arik Armstead.

    2019 playoff teams:
    -PHI: Fletcher Cox
    -SF: DeForrest Buckner
    -GB: Kenny Clark
    -NO: Sheldon Rankins
    -KC: Chris Jones
    -BUF: Ed Oliver
    -TEN: Jurrell Casey
    -HOU: JJ Watt

    To respond to both of you on WR, my take always has been this: If you have a good team and a number of players who have outperformed their draft status, taking WR in round 1 is not something I’m against. The real issue for me is the opportunity cost if you have other needs. It’s just a probability game.

    If you have a 35% chance of getting an elite WR with a top 10 pick...

    A 35% chance of getting an elite Edge with a top 10 pick....

    A 15% chance of getting an elite WR with a 2nd round pick....

    And a 3% chance of getting an elite Edge with a 2nd round pick...

    The math is just better to accumulate more good players if you take the 35% and 15% than the 35% and the 3%.
     
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  5. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I think Jaylon Smith was the other ILB I was thinking of. He was very highly rated and did drop because of injury. Yes, Jack was a 2nd round pick. Thanks for the correction. I remember that he was rated very highly and talked about as likely being an early 1st round pick, so I misremembered and thought he had gone in the 1st round, but now I recall that he went in the 2nd round. Didn't he drop to the 2nd round due to injury, or was it something else?

    Yes, I was speaking of Patrick Willis. Thanks. My mind went blank. I wasn't speaking about Bowman.

    The two ILBs that were taken in the 1st round in that draft were Leonard Floyd and Darron Lee, and neither have been worthy of their draft position.

    I understand the percentages, and basically agree when you're talking about Edge and WR. The thing is I don't think that there are that many positions worthy of a top 10 selection. I see the only positions worthy of being drafted that high as QB, LT, WR, Edge, and CB.

    If I couldn't find a team to trade down with, and there were no players left at those 5 positions that were rated that highly, then I'd take a player at another position, but that would be the only situation I'd do it.
     
    #5 NCJetsfan, Sep 16, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2020
  6. Thank you for posting nice work.

    For every position group there are specific traits that typically raise them to elite 1st round grade. In some cases those traits might be a tad overrated compared to prospects who dont have them like RB & Linebacker.

    The only positions i really disagree on are WR & TE.

    WR bc if a team is grading corrrectly this is a player w a very high floor & high ceiling to put up real points on the scoreboard. The data at this position is skewed a bit bc teams reach on lesser talent usually based on size/production or 40 times.Plus theres been quite a few guys who busted for off the field issues that were obvious during evaluatoon process. The clean Calvin Johnson/Andre Johnson/AJ Greene/Julio Jones are not around every yr but when they are, they are a very good both to produce early & help a young QB.

    TE it’s kind of the same deal.We dont see first round TEs every yr & sometimes the ones who are,are scheme specific niche players. But those truly unique clean OFT talents that move & make plays like a big WR but can also block in line as well as in space are extremely valuable & impactful.

    Also think putting together a great OL requires alot of attention to fitting guys together based on prototype/checks & balances. The ideal guard to put next to a team’s young stud LT might be a guy w a 4th round grade w 7 guys w higher grades within the position group. So its a bit of a unique animal & a bit of a puzzle.
     
    #6 KurtTheJetsFan, Sep 17, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 17, 2020
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  7. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    Smith and Jack were both highly rated but not healthy. Smith was more highly rated but had a more severe injury, I believe spinal. It was unclear if he’d ever be able to play as a pro.

    Floyd was an OLB/Edge.

    Lee was the only 1st round off ball LB that year.
     
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  8. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    It just comes down to opportunity cost to me. In a vacuum there is no position I am vehemently against taking in the first if the talent is high enough. However outside of a vacuum there are reasons to target positions differently.

    The goal is just to accumulate as many good players as possible, and some positions have a clearly better hit rate in rounds 2-3 than others.

    To me there are two reasons to target a position outside of the 1st.

    1. Having an elite player at that position is less impactful than an elite player at other positions. This is similar to a point you made.
    (RB, G, LB)

    2. Finding an elite player at that position has a higher hit rate in round 2-3 than other positions.
    (WR, TE, S)

    The reason to target a player in the 1st is simple, because elite players are very impactful at those positions and finding an elite player outside of round 1 is more rare.
    (OT, C, QB, Edge, IDL, CB)

    I don’t have an issue with anyone who disagrees, I find it an interesting conversation. Also, all of this varies to some degree based on scheme and how the draft plays out.
     
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  9. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

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    I don't have an issue either. It's a thought provoking discussion. As Kurt said, if there's a clean WR prospect available when you pick, he's a good bet to succeed and make life easier for your QB. If the Jets had a good OL going into this year's draft, it would've been a no brainer to take Jeudy or Lamb to give Sam a playmaker who could not only scare opposing defenses, but make other players on offense better. There wasn't an elite CB or Edge prospect available at 11. Okudah and Young were off the board at that point.

    I'd prefer to be elite at QB, LT, Edge, WR, and CB in that order. After that, it's a tossup.
     
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  10. MaximusD163

    MaximusD163 Well-Known Member

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    I had strong inclinations to take Ruggs. If the OT prospects hadn’t been there Ruggs was my preferred receiver
     

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