I think the answer is that the NFL is geared towards rewarding a pass-heavy offense. Look at the rules - and more importantly, how they're interpreted - with regards to initial contact off the LOS and PI, etc. all meant to increase passing because that's what the fans like. Sure, a great running attack can be the most effective, but it's not as sexy. A major reason the NFL agree to merge with the AFL was that the AFL drew lots of fans who loved the aerial circuses they had every Sunday, vs. the "Three yards and a cloud of dust" the NFL relied on. Ironically, the "tipping point" for the merger was the Jets winning SB III, which they did by using the "Three yards and a cloud of dust" formula. And it took decades for that more conservative approach to be replaced by the more open current one, but over the past 10-15 years, the NFL has become a passing league, and RBs have been devalued, unless they also have good receiving skills.
not disagreeing with anything you say. I tend to think of these as being synergistic. Most run plays are not designed for big gains. They're designed for more achievable gains with a higher percentage of success of something close to intended, e.g., 3.5. So we really can't fault them when they get 3.5. And yes if you were achieving 3.5 time and again, they'd stack the box. Similarly if your receiver was gaining 10 yds/catch you'd see more of a response whether it's jamming at the line, double teams whatever. My overall point is that, while everyone likes a star WR, there's a bit of an irrational bias because the plays are sexy/dramatic. SImilarly chasing them in the first round is risky (a bit like penny stocks). Very few teams seem to have a reliable eye on identifying WRs in the draft who will translate to the pros. Even some great teams (e.g., Pats) suck at it. Of all the absolute stud WRs recently picked none have carried their team to the promised land. Julio perhaps came closest but he had a pretty good QB and defense. Moss was great in NE but the team was stacked. You may have to go back to Jerry Rice (3d WR picked in that draft) or Terrell Owens (3d rounder) for a WR so dominant he was the main guy and the team was that successful
Again not disagreeing. My main issue comes down to price. How much are they worth. Paying Amari 20 mill is a huge challenge to building a strong and balanced team
Would definitely love to land Chase, but I don't think the Jets are at a point yet (or anywhere close) where they can afford to trade up for a player. I knew that you and others would want a WR next year. I still think there are posters here that would want more OL drafted, Edge, CB, ILB or almost any other position rather than WR in the first three rounds. We have posters here that severely undervalue WRs. Never mind that we're trying to develop Sam and the NFL is a passing league now, they still want 3 yards and a cloud of dust and to win with D.
It's all about getting that "last piece" to turn from an average offense to a high powered offense where you have 4 or 5 options in the passing game that can win matchups (Mims, Chase, Herndon, Bell, Crowder). If we see a major upward trend in terms of the offense / QB play then no doubt I would explore a trade-up if needed. That dude Chase is one bad shut yo mouth, I haven't seen a WR abuse top DBs at the college level in sometime. But timing is everything. This would remind me of a Julio Jones to Falcons type situation.
You’re 100% right.They just flat out dont like or value the position.Theyd rather stubbornly continue to try to build a team w outdated principles. It’s utterly shocking considering how WR has held this team back repeatedly. When theyre providing all these numbers & data to prove a point but then wont consider relevant comparable data directly correlated to the jets..they lose me. The very philosophy they want to practice has BEEN the Jets practice since basically the Bradway era. And its failed repeatedly.Left us w a massive talent void & an outdated formula for winning. They offer no solutions & i guess are complacent w never having a good WR corps?Ever? No one wants to spend a ton of premium picks on any one position including WR.Id be thrilled to to see it get resolved to move on to other needs/positions.But goodness gracious enough is enough. This team will not breakthrough until they have a respectable group of offensive skill & more specifically a competent passing attack.
I still don't like trading up, but if it only cost a 4th or at most a 3rd, I would strongly consider it, and probably would do it, but not anything more than that.
I had a post recently comparing super bowl teams and where their top two receivers ranked in terms of receiving yards. Denver was the only team that had a receiver in the top 10 since the Giants won in 2012. Most teams had two receivers who were ranked somewhere between 15 and 40. That is to say having two receivers who are very good/borderline elite is better than having a stud then a huge drop off. Considering the salary cap, having a stud at WR means deficiencies elsewhere.
Personally it just makes more sense to me to have 3 WR’s who do a couple of things very well each, and then the premier player at another position such as Edge or OT or CB, over 1 WR that does everything well and a pass rusher who only has 1 move. I don’t think it’s a debate that will end though.
I don't think "premier" players only come in the first round. There is a higher chance a player drafted in the first may become "premier" but if we look at the superbowl champs they have a lot of "premier" players. Not very many if them were 1st round picks. Their edge rushers were not, their receivers were not. Their left tackle was but as we have seen with previous sb winner that is not a necessity (Trent Brown). If you compare 1st round to 2nd round or 1st to 3rd. 1st works out more often BUT any round can work. Basically you just up you chance by a little bit. That all said EVERY superbowl winner for the past 20 years had a premier "pass catcher". The jets have not had one for 10 years. By taking one in the first we increase our chances at developing one. You cannot use rounds 2 & 3 vs round 1 to justify taking one as the % is actually lower consider over double the players are drafted in that period. Without a doubt round 1 has a better chance at a premier player, but there are premier throughout. Just last year premier edge Maxx Crosby rd 4. If a receiver like Justyn Ross is BPA at a position of need you absolutely take him.
All about timing. If that is the last piece to transform the offense, gotta explore the trade even if it costs more than a 3rd.
But he wouldn't be the last piece. We probably still need a better LG than Lewis and a better RG than Van Roten or Winters if Clark is gonna play RT. We need a better starting RB next year. We need a better #2 TE, and if Herndon doesn't bounce back this year, a better #1 TE.
I said IF we see a major upward trend in terms of the offense / QB play then no doubt I would explore a trade-up if needed. Clark is going to play inside next year, he will not be a tackle at the next level. Bell is fine with an upgraded offensive line, I would hope he sticks around. Griffin is a fine #2 TE and Wesco I think might step up, he's a good blocker too. Herndon has plenty of potential, as long as he's healthy I think he will produce at be a very good target for the Jets. Him and Sam already have that chemistry you want.
If this TE is available when we pick in round 2 next year, I'd find it hard to resist. Imagine us having a Gronk/Hernandez combo at the position. Without the off field baggage of course.
That's just it. Next years draft will have a lot of receivers at the top. But not so many after round 2. The edge isn't great all around. We don't need o line as much anymore. So unless there is a decent corner I would absolutely take the receiver. I wouldn't take a tackle in round one again. We can get an RT later like most teams, unless Becton isn't an LT then we need one. McGovern will be here a while. Our guard are fine or can be cheaply upgraded in later rounds and there isn't a Quentin Nelson.
I’m not locked to one position but Edge has got to be the primary target I think. Just my inclination, and we’ll see where we draft and what the season looks like of course.
Darnold is one of the best in the league throwing to tight ends, def want 2 guys from that position catching passes.
