What Were Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur Thinking?

They had an analytics-based draft.

The Packers window to win with Rodgers is rapidly evaporating and they decided to build for the next window instead of taking one more shot in this one.

It's a 50/50 call however I admire their balls in facing the realities involved with a 36 year old QB, a roster unlikely to win 11+ games next season and a fan base that will be intolerant of what looked like a serious decline no matter what they did in this draft.

 

I don't see a problem in drafting a QB, particularly as Rodgers is a whiny bitch approaching the end of his career. The rest of their draft feels a bit Maccagnan-esque, drafting "BPA" rather than positions of need.

The end result is depth and the same roster holes they had a the start of the Draft. If any of their blue-chip players go down with an injury early in the season, this draft will be lauded otherwise I'll expect the pitchfork-waving to start around Week 7.

 

I love that Green Bay fired a SB winning coach in mid season because he couldn't get along with their QB and then drafted a first round QB to piss off the QB. It's pretty obvious Green Bay management hates Rodgers as much as they hated McCarthy.

Rodgers will be cut before his current contract runs out. They will eat the dead cap after next season. Great value pick.

 

Packers clearly wanna be like the 49ers / Titans, but this ain't how you should do it. AJ Dillon in RD2? I guess they think they found their Derrick Henry.

What about Aaron Jones?

 

Not taking a WR was more baffling than the Love pick. Rodgers is no spring chicken and has dealt with injuries throughout his career. It's also well known that he can be difficult to deal with. Maybe his act is wearing thin on LaFleur and Gutekunst. If they believe Love is their guy, it's better to be proactive and get him too early than watch another team pick him.

 

Picking Love was ok I guess, although if I was a fan I would’ve preferred trying to help ARod win another SB.

Picking Dillon in the 2nd though and not selecting a WR at all in a great WR draft while it’s your biggest need should be a fireable offense.

Besides Dillon being an incredible reach A Jones is their best player other than ARod and in his prime, just stupid.

Might have been one of the worst drafts in a long long time. Not sure I’ve ever seen a draft so universally hated from talking heads to Packers fans to non Packers fans.

 

I think they have the "I can see things better than everyone else" syndrome. See NYJ pick of Hackenberg for a case study.

 

The Packers are really a stick to their guns franchise and will refuse to let themselves be the Giants with Eli and potentially the Steelers with Roethlisberger if he struggles next year and still wants to keep playing.

With that being said, the decision to not take a receiver in the top 4 rounds is a bit mind-blowing. The clear cut weakness on the team was not having a receiver to throw to behind Adams. It reminds me of our 2014 draft when we thought Jace Amaro was the only weapon we needed to add in the deepest receiver class to date.

 

why cater to a constantly whining, 36 yr old qb who is being paid north of $30 million per year?

just shut your mouth and do your job. the inmates do not run the asylum

the nfl needs a rule that no one player on any team can exceed 10% of the salary cap every year..

enough with teams going down in flames because too much money is tied up with one player in one position.

 

The only player in NFL history who had a Michael Jordan-like effect on the league, dominating almost every year he played, was Tom Brady with the Patriots.

He got paid less than most of his true peers, substantially less, for most of his career - which is one of the primary reasons he had the MJ-like effect on the NFL.

What the NFL doesn't fully understand yet, although all the analytics are there to make the connection, is that no player is worth 10% of the cap in his average season. It's kind of like the going for it on 4th down thing - the numbers all support it but human beings are guided primarily by emotional responses that are not governed by the full set of the numbers in play.

Bill Belichik is an alien and he convinced Tom Brady to understand the process needed to win every year and the rest is history. This is why the Pats dominance is over now. Belichik is never going to find a replacement for Brady that is willing to take 60% of the superstar QB salary every year for the good of the team.

 

What do you think the Jets should do with Sam? He hasn't shown enough to get a big payday, but he was dealt a bad hand. If he puts up top 10 QB numbers in 2020 and 2021, would 6/156 with 120 guaranteed be fair? Feels like a tough situation for Douglas.

 

I understand that these are the most highly competitive creatures on earth, driven mostly by their egos. At the same time, I guess I struggle to understand why more of these quarterbacks don't try the Brady and Patriot model. These aren't runningbacks. They are the only position on the football field outside a punters plant leg that are fully protected. There are some outliers like Carson Wentz and what not, but they have the easiest path to 15 year careers if they're any good.

With that rant being said, how many more rings would Peyton Manning have if he forfeited his reign as the top paid quarterback and let them add another corner or safety every couple years?

Wouldn't you think the dollars they can make on fame and fortune from being a winner year in and year out would outweigh the $5-6 extra million a year in salary? I guess not. I understand it. I would never want to be paid less for more. But it's worth a thought.

Tim Duncan + the Spurs are another case in point of this.

 

If Sam puts up top 10 QB numbers two years in a row, you pay him. If he continues putting up bottom 10 QB numbers, you cut him. Somewhere in between is the question mark.

 

Just like Brady, he is getting old and he is not the same. He is sort of a prima donna and the Packers saw what they thought was an excellent draft opportunity.

What is sad is he has the talent to actually be the best of all time, but he is stubborn and unwillingly to drop bad habits like throwing off his back foot.

 

I have to agree with you. More and more it seems like he is turning into such a crybaby and at times doesnt even look like he wants to be out there. Kind of the same look Cam Newton has had for the past few years.

 

It's not a tough situation for Douglas. He was there with the Ravens when they torched the roster by signing Flacco to a huge deal. He knows what happens when you pretend your QB is the reason you are winning instead of just a good game manager who helps you win.

The only way Sam Darnold gets a huge second deal is if he earns it. The way to do that is to become the engine the Jets winning ways depend on for those wins.

Assuming the Jets do not win a Super Bowl in the next two years the odds are pretty good they aggressively try to lock Darnold up with a tier 2 QB contract in the $20M a year range with outs if it goes sour for them. If he's game for that he'll be the Jets QB and if he's not they'll be aggressively looking for his replacement.

If they win a Super Bowl *then* Douglas is in the same tough situation the Ravens were in with Flacco. Hopefully he has a plan at that point other than torching the roster by giving Darnold a contract that he, like Joe Flacco, can't possibly live up to.

 

The thing to realize is that it is not the QB's who are at fault here. It is the teams that are at fault. Nobody is holding a gun to their head when they sign the QB's to huge deals. They have all the numbers in front of them to make the right call. They just can't bring themselves to let go of their most valuable employee despite the fact that he is demanding maybe 40-50% more than he is worth.

One of the biggest things to realize about how teams operate is that virtually every team in the NFL is spending less effort than they ought to be in developing players in general and QB's in particular. Every team in the NFL should have a guy who *might* be able to start for them for the next 4 years behind their starter. They all ought to have another guy in the pipeline that they are really high on. They should be spending at least one draft pick every other year at the QB position.

One of the reasons that teams don't do this is that a lot of teams don't prioritize their scouting resources correctly. They use regional scouts to look at a lot of players and build up a database of information. This is ok because it conforms to the realities of covering a lot of ground with the people you have. However they should have a second tier of scouts that are specialists in certain areas who double up with the regional guys when a prospect in their area of interest is playing.

QB/WR would definitely be one area that you would want specialists to look at alongside your regular guys. Why? Because those guys are really expensive to keep around long term if they are good and you always want developing talent or a quick fix from the draft available if contract demands get out of hand. Also, the two positions play off of each other in a way that it is important to know who really is the driver and who riding shotgun in the pairing.

David Terrell had a brilliant game in the Orange Bowl in 1999, catching 10 ball for 150 yards and 3 TD's. His star shone brightly that year and the next and he was taken on the 8th pick of the 2001 draft. Who was the QB in the game where he first came to prominence? Tom Brady, who wound up beng drafted in the 6th round of the 2000 draft.

It would have been nice to have a specialized guy there who realized that tall skinny Tom Brady always had huge games in the bowls and elevated the players around him. He didn't stand out overall but when the games got bigger he became great.

CB/EDGE would be another category you might want a specialist in since corners and pass rushers are expensive and also have a huge effect on each other's performances.

OL is an obvious target since you want to know not only the talent level of a guy but how he fits with his college teammates and how he will fit into your system.