Drop off of WR Talent from 1st round to 2nd round

Thanks.

 

I think the bigger question is how much of an impact will a Michael Pittman or Tee Higgins have in year 1 compared to a Jerry Jeudy or Ceedee Lamb. Good WR's can take a year or two to establish themselves. For example, look at DJ Chark, who was taken in round 2 two years ago. Year 1, he had 14 receptions, 174 yards, and 0 TD's. Year 2, 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, and 8 TD's.

 

The General Manager should not be focusing on the short term. every player should be drafted for who they will become in year 3

 

With a sometimes exception of the top half of round 1. In most drafts, there are 8-15 players who can be expected to contribute early. Weak drafts you can hope for 5-8, good drafts around 15. Of course they aren’t already at their pinnacle of development, but when you draft that high you hope for some contributions.

 

With the draft absolutely stoked with top WR talent, you KNOW every team in the league is going to load up. Especially the AFCE. Jets have an extra 3rd and Miami has 4 first round picks. This could allow Miami to walk away with a top tackle AND 2 or 3 TOP WRs, propelling them to the top.

So...with all our competition grabbing these great receivers, maybe we stand out by grabbing the next Darrelle Revis to shut 'em all down!

 

I believe Miami has 3 first round picks, not 4.

 

So one CB is going to shut down 3 WRs? Have you learned nothing? We don't need another Darrelle Revis. We need a strong pass rush and 3-4 good CBs. We also need excellent WRs for Sam to throw to.

Oh, and Miami also needs a QB, so they won't be taking an OT and 3 WRs.

 

I think Jeudy and Lamb will have a lot more than 14 receptions year 1. For that matter, I think Ruggs and Jefferson will as well.

 

No, we absolutely cannot afford to trade multiple picks to move up. That would be foolish, and I don't think Douglas would do it.

 

I don't think there will be any potential #1 WRs still available in the 3rd round.

 

Gandy Golden could be an Allen Robinson type. So could Tyler Johnson. Both could be in the 3rd and develop into #1, maybe even Andre Johnsonish. Or they could both be garbage... they definitely have a lot of bust potential, but could be a Brandon Marshall minus the drama as well.

 

I think it all depends upon who is there at #11. Lamb or Jeudy (and maybe even Ruggs) would have more value at #11 than Douglas' 3rd or 4th choice at OT.

Even as much as I think we need to add an elite player on offense, and as much I'd love to add Becton, Thomas, Lamb or Jeudy to our offense, if you could guarantee me today that if we traded down in the first and we would wind up with Jefferson, Wanogho and Pittman, plus still have our other 2nd round pick and our 2-3rd round picks, I'd definitely sign up for that.

 

Well we have to hope Douglas remembers everything Newsome taught him. I can name several option through those round that I would love to have. Some have Jackson falling to the 2nd for the tackles, also Pert has potential. I also would be ok with several other WR. Not to mention the extra picks allow us to shoot for a G/C, CB, and Edge all in the first 3 rounds. Means we can looks for diamonds in the rough after that. Maybe a rb, backup qb, kicker who knows. That g/c, edge, and cb could replace what we signed/resigned this year. Freeing up cap and maybe giving comp picks. This will certainly be a very interesting draft. I just hope no matter if we trade back or not Douglas gets us good players.

 

I totally disagree with your comments vis-a-vis the OTs, WRs and Simmons and Okuday. Okudah and Simmons would be no-brainers, as in not having priorities in the right place. Great players and prospects, yes, but not needs. Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs are equally great prospects and players, and fit needs, just as Becton, Thomas or Wirfs would. IMO Wills is not on the same level of those 6 guys. Unless Simmons could play edge, he wouldn't fit. Mosley's not going anywhere for a couple of years, and we already have excellent depth and a logjam at the other 2nd ILB spot. Taking Simmons would not improve the team near as much as adding one of the OTs or WRs. You don't need an Okudah type at CB. You need a strong pass rush, and 3-4 very good CBs, not one great CB and the rest meh. Similarly, adding Okudah would not improve the team nearly as much as adding one of the OTs or WRs. The team needs balance. The #1 priority has to remain protecting Sam and helping him develop, by surrounding him with quality WRs. We have 3 viable starters at CB. We don't really even have 2 viable starters at WR.

IMO we could take a flyer on an Edge in the 3rd or 4th round, but otherwise, it has to wait until next year. We could take a CB in the 3rd or 4th round also, but again imo, otherwise it needs to wait until next year.

 

The Jets right now do not have a WR they could depend on. Perriman as new as he is to this team is a risk. Douglas should not pass on a WR in the first. He knows he has to make his bones drafting. Most GM's aren't known for their free agent signings. Its all about the draft and reloading talent

 

I agree on those two, but I think both will likely be gone before our first pick in the 3rd round, and almost certainly will be gone before our 2nd pick in the 3rd round. That's why I didn't include them.

 

I have a bit of a quasi-conspiracy theory when it comes to the draft and especially for the glamour positions like QB, WR, RB. I think some college players with great stats get pumped up (as in pump and dump for stocks) and people including dumb franchises forget that their college success can be based on many other factors (e.g., they came from a dominant team with a QB who had all the time in the world to throw the ball; several NFL caliber WRs against non-NFL caliber corners) etc. It seems like year after year a number of these guys are fools gold for dumb teams thinking they'll get the same performance/success the guy had in college. Also, and again somewhat cynical, i think there are media analysts who wittingly or unwittingly perpetuate this scam on dumb teams. With "unnamed" sources from smart teams, feeding disinformation to the media analyst they trust will play into their hands

My hope is that our new FO filters out all of that noise and makes an independent decision and hopefully we finally have good talent scouts (for all positions, but hopefully an upgrade on WR, where our drafting has been putrid)

There are some teams that seem to have consistent track records finding great WR talent throughout the rounds. Pittsburgh and KC come to mind. And others who success is probably worse than if they handed the reins to an average fan (see Jets). Could be luck, but I don't think so. I think some of these teams know how to pick players just like there are a select few people who seem to consistently pick winning stocks (relatively speaking of course). They have honed in on what truly translates to the NFL

I will also be far from shocked if JD drafts someone other than OT or WR in round 1. Even if we think there are 4 elite OT, and 3 elite WRs that does not mean he sees it that way. Some of those guys won't be elite for the system they are trying to put in place. And the Board may fall in a way that his "elite" are gone. He might also rank an Edge or CB higher than we expect and see guys who fit his system falling into the second or third round. We should remember good teams expect success in the first 3 rounds (meaning finding guys who at least meaningfully contribute), even though our history has been notorious in the second and spotty at best in the third (where we draft guys who are true, out-of-the league busts in a blink of the eye)

 

My bad....I thought they still had FitzMagic!

 

After getting Wirfs, Willis, Becton or Thomas at #11, I'd love to go back to back with #48 & #68

To me, this is the best way to build the skill positions for Sam. Protect him 1st and then get weapons that he can DEVELOP with. Id be pleased with any of these two (mostly outside the numbers guys so Crowder, and Herdon can work the middle-and Perriman Stretching the field).

-Aiyuk
-Mims
-Pittman
-Higgins
-Reagor
-Gandy-Golden