I was listening to the Move the Sticks Podcast today, which probably many of you know is hosted by Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, two well known ex-scouts. They brought up again an excellent point, which I think is such a great way to put into words a quintessential part of building a successful team. On a 53 man roster, there are 12 key players. Tier 1 -1 Quarterback -2 Pass Rushers (Anywhere on the Defensive Line) Tier 2 -3 Offensive Linemen -3 Offensive Playmakers -3 Defensive Playmakers Each of these players needs to be essentially a red chip level player, and of course the more the better to account for injuries, so 12 is really a minimum. Blue chip players in tier 1 also make more of a difference. So as far as the Jets are concerned, where are we filling out these 12 things players? Who would you seek to fill the remaining slots with?
-1 Quarterback: Sam Darnold. —At this point, we have to operate under the assumption that Sam can at least develop into a red chip type of quarterback for us. He has shown a lot of good qualities, and some growth. There have been inconsistencies, but considering he is still younger than well regarded college prospects, time is just something we have to allow for here. -2 Pass Rushers:?, ?. —As desperate as I am for offensive linemen, looking at this makes me realize how badly we need an edge rusher. Let’s say Quinnen Williams becomes a pass rushing threat inside? That’s great, but at some point we need to throw down capital on a legitimate outside rusher, whether it is with a high pick or free agency. I am always hesitant with paying big money to outside rushers, however this year has proven that you can find guys like Frank Clark and Zadarius Smith through free agency. -3 Offensive Linemen: ?, ?, ?. —In my opinion, Chuma Edoga and Brian Winters would be the 2 linemen who are not part of our red chip 3 offensive linemen. Even if both are on the team next year, we need 3 good players here desperately. -3 Offensive Playmakers: Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, ?. —Between Bell and Crowder, we have 2 players who I consider to be offensive playmakers. I would not bank on anyone else on the team to be one, and anything they (Chris Herndon) end up offering us is a bonus. I would be interested in making a push to acquire Amari Cooper in free agency. -3 Defensive Playmakers: Jamal Adams, CJ Mosley, Marcus Maye. —Maye is debatably a red chip player. I’ve seen him make some great plays, but also make significant errors. I would like to spread out the playmakers to the outside, and perhaps push for Ronald Darby in free agency. While it is hardly a secret the Jets have needs, this helps me feel like I can see more clearly what the priorities are. We need to get closer to free agency so that we can find out who is even available before any real speculation, but the Jets need at the absolute bare minimum: -At least 1 Pass Rusher. -3 Offensive Linemen. -At least 1 Offensive Playmaker. This year is a good draft for OL and WR. I have hopes that means we can round out the core of our team well, as those are primary needs for us. If you’re wondering why I haven’t mentioned some current Jets, it is probably because they are about to become free agents.
Using this criteria the Jets have basically 3 of the 12 slots filled. Darnold, Mosley and Adams. You can squint a little bit and call Crowder a playmaker, although I'm not sure that a possession slot receiver really counts. The draft and 2nd-tier free agency is where you have to go to fill out the other 8-9 slots. Top-tier free agency will just put a large number of eggs in one basket and at best give us *one* of the 8 or 9. Mosley was signed to fix things last year and promptly got hurt as a case in point.
Adams could easily get hurt after signing a big contract too, so it’s not really a reason not to sign good players. At this point, we don’t really have our own guys to sign this offseason, at least no one big. Personally I would rather pay Cooper for what you get out of him than Robby for what you get out of him. That may have been different if we could have extended him in-season, but now we have to match free agency bids. I don’t want to go crazy with high prices free agency, but guys like Cooper are not normally available. And for a CB, we just gotta have a legit guy from free agency. We can’t go into a season with what we have, and if you don’t get one in free agency it forces your hand in the draft.
Jenkins is a pass rusher. He might not be a stud, be he can set the edge and get to the QB. We really need that guy who can consistently get to the QB and have opposing teams game plan for.
Our previous front office spent $130 on a RB and ILB last off-season and then spent the #3 pick on an interior lineman - the 3 least valued positions on the field. That's all you really need to know about this team. Couple that with a decade of the most incompetent drafting in the league and here we sit: with basically Darnold and Adams and whole bunch of nothing.
I don’t think Jenkins is a legit pass rusher, certainly not to the standard I’m talking about. He’s also not on the team as of this offseason, he’s an unrestricted free agent. That’s the same as not being a Jet right now.
He is a great guy to compliment a real pass rusher. He can play strong side as he’s also kind of thumper and rush a bit. I love the versatility.
I still am just so baffled as to why they went in this direction. Taking a step back, what did we need last year? Offensive line, pass rush, corner, and maybe a receiver. They grabbed Crowder...okay nice move. What’s next? They go and spend $18MM/year for CJ Mosley! Why? Well they don’t like Lee so much. Okay...so we had to pay $18 mil for a replacement? They like his personality, he is going to transform this defense. Yeah but we have Jamal and McLendon as defensive leaders and that’s not a justification to spend THAT much money one... Alright fine let’s get Bell, we need an offensive playmaker. But Gase doesn’t want him? Forget what our new head coach thinks that we just expressed confidence in, let’s get Bell anyway. Also Let’s overspend to get him like this franchise depends on it! So we had plenty of money to spend on non critical players and when Paradis comes to New York the expectation is he will sign, well all of a sudden Macagnans purse gets really tight and he doesn’t want to pay a lot for a center because he has some philosophy of not overpaying centers. I guess he didn’t see his own franchise QB he just drafted getting killed out there. Besides he already made his one offensive lineman move this year, trading for an injured guard in Osemele...that should fix everything. Okay draft time...we badly need an edge or to trade down and acquire more picks...Josh Allen is there and exactly what we need. Or if they don’t think he’s going to live up the hype we can trade down. Mac already semi-burned from his Leonard Williams pick, decides to do the same thing. He falls in love with what the scouts say about Quinnen...But wait! Macs got a plan. He is also going to grab Polite who was their second highest rated pass rusher! He has so many red flags the entire nfl passed on him twice at the premium position he plays. Eh it’s fine, they liked their interview with him and Gregg should straighten him out... I would bet most people could do a better job than this. I honestly can’t think of a more incompetent organization than this one.
Without question, games are won and lost based on how well a team controls the line of scrimmage. You can see it in the latest playoff examples from the Chiefs and the 49'ers - both their OL and DL are on another level. After watching these teams rip apart their foes apart , I can say that this probably the first year I can remember in a long time that I would not mind at all if the Jets go with OL in their first 2 out of 3 picks. It's a deep draft for this area.
The injury factor is one of the primary reasons that over-priced players generally come back to bite you hard in the ass before all is said and done. The player expectations that get set elsewhere in your locker room is another primary reason. The fact that the player is now set for life and no longer has to put out at 100% all the time is a third. The biggest reason not to give out huge contracts though is that it makes everybody too confident that the problem has been resolved. The owners and GM can point at the money investment and say "we did everything we can do to solve the problem. Now it's out of our hands." The basic football fact of next man up in a sport full of injuries and early declines is ignored because the problem has been "fixed" and there are few resources left to spend behind your "fix". You didn't spend the off-season combing through the available options and finally settling on a half-dozen guys that might be a possible answer at a range of potential prices. You pushed all your chips in to the center in March and then you sat back, satisfied with your effort. That's the lazy answer to any problem that needs fixing and teams that use it often lose the ability to do the work required to build a good football team.
What jumps out at me after reading the OP, and then the post that points out that we might have 3 of those 12 positions at best, is this: There is no way we are going to fill those 9 positions in one yea, and perhaps not even in two!I And that's if you count Mosely coming back and playing at the high level he's being paid for. Of course there's a big assumption that goes along with this "formula": You have a HC that can mold these players (and the others on the team) into a winning team. The Jets don't even have that! Let that sink in.
I’m not really sure I agree with your take. You have to pay somebody, I mean sure some of the Jets signings have been I’ll advised or overpriced, but the way you express it I’m getting the vibe of “I asked out 2 girls and they both said no so I guess I better not ask anymore.” I would equate it to saying “hey, maybe I need to figure out what kind of person I have more chemistry with” or something. Yes, the draft needs to be the wellspring of talent for our team, but look at other championship teams. They have traded for or signed bigger free agents as well, you just have to be smart about which ones.
It could be true that we only have 3, but that is definitely the darksider take. Homer take is we could have as many as 7 of them. (Darnold, Williams, Bell, Crowder, Adams, Mosley, Maye). The truth is most likely somewhere in the middle, as with most things. The reality is with a good offseason we can add 3 realistically, which is not championship ready but could be very competitive.
The Jets have chemistry with anybody they walk up to with a wheelbarrow of cash. The question is whether having that kind of chemistry with one person means anything at all in the present day NFL and I think it doesn't. I think virtually every team that has made a huge investment in a single player, let alone with multiples, has regretted the decision in the end. The difference with the Jets is that you cannot get from bad to good with that kind of chemistry. Most teams start out good to great and wind up less after their big spree. The few Jets teams that have made a major splurge and profited from it have done so in the context of something else that was much bigger than the players involved. Parcells coming into the building. Rex and Revis saying hello. That pretty much finishes the list. Dan Snyder spends a lot of time effectively arguing that contract size is the most important factor in NFL success. That should be enough to make anybody else question the premise.
