Maccagnan is Fired!

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by westiedog1, May 15, 2019.

  1. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    12,518
    Likes Received:
    11,420
    At the end of the day he is gone, whether people liked him or not, he isn't coming back, so we will get over it as per usual lol

    We will get over Gase when he is gone as well, :p I was in the wait and see camp with an open mind but now it is a little tinged with doubt that we have a trouble maker on our hands.
     
  2. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    7,233
    Likes Received:
    9,922
    If Gase had a winning record and won a Super Bowl or two, I could understand giving him this much power. But, he doesn't. I fear the next GM will be a yes man to Gase.
     
    Ralebird and BrowningNagle like this.
  3. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    4,570
    Likes Received:
    4,958
    Keep an open mind he has not coached one game for the Jets yet. Lets give him a chance to succeed instead of rooting for him to fail. The history is not good I am well aware but the off-seasons over that last few years has been the only chance for optimism lets keep that until we lose a few games. We needed we change we got it was it change for change sake we won't know until we win or lose games.

    I like the roster better than we had in a while and I am hoping that Darnold can make that jump if so Gase will be a good choice if not we are SOL either way.
     
    sec314 and NCJetsfan like this.
  4. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,280
    Likes Received:
    28,706
    Following is a very interesting article that rates Mac's efforts in the draft over the years. It uses Pro Football Reference's stats.

    https://www.ganggreennation.com/201...rformance-stats-on-maccagnan-drafts-2015-2018

    How poor was Mike Maccagnan’s draft performance?

    By Michael Nania@Michael_Nania May 17, 2019, 9:02am EDT

    After five offseasons at the helm, Mike Maccagnan is out as the GM of the Jets.

    The majority of the fanbase was very critical of the now-former GM over his tenure in New York, mostly taking issue with his shortcomings in one particular area — the draft.

    Maccagnan saw no shortage of resentment over his struggles on draft weekend. His inability to get it done each April was likely the primary reason he is now on the job market.

    While most already know that Maccagnan’s draft performance was less than adequate, I wanted to get a more precise handle on how productive Maccagnan’s drafts have been relative to the rest of the league.

    This study relied entirely on the “Approximate Value” stat — a metric generated by Pro-Football-Reference that aims to attach a single number to players as an estimate of the value they’ve provided on the field. It’s an imperfect measure, especially over small samples or single seasons, but it is a tremendous tool for the purpose of this study. Over large samples, it works extremely well.

    For a more in-depth explanation of the stat, check out Pro-Football-Reference’s explanation.

    Let’s dig into the numbers and find out where Maccagnan’s drafts stood up against the rest of the NFL.

    This study looks at the results of the 2015-2018 drafts.

    • Maccagnan’s first four draft classes have so far accumulated a total approximate value of 154. That ties the Jets for 28th in the league over that span.
    [​IMG]
    • The Jets made only 28 selections over Maccagnan’s first four drafts, tied for the ninth-fewest in the league over that span. Those picks have accumulated an average of 5.5 approximate value over their careers thus far, the 10th-lowest total in the league. The Jets are the only team in the league over that span to rank top-10 in both fewest picks and least approximate value per pick.
    • The one thing Maccagnan did well was draft in the first round. His four first round selections have averaged 7.4 AV per season, the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
    [​IMG]
    • Of course, Maccagnan did have some good fortune in his favor when it came to the first round. The average Jets first round pick over this span was made at 8.8 overall, the second-best first round positioning in the league behind only Chicago. Three of the four picks (in other words, the three “good” picks) were made in the top six. One could argue that it didn’t take very advanced scouting knowledge for the Jets to know Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, and Sam Darnold were the right picks at the time. Nevertheless, some credit is due to Maccagnan for not completely flubbing the first round.
    • The second round didn’t quite go as nicely for Mac and the Jets. And thus begins the dreaded tale of Mike Maccagnan and the final six rounds of the draft. Maccagnan’s three second round picks have averaged 1.0 AV per season and have combined for a total of 9 AV, both totals worst in the NFL.
    [​IMG]
    • In fact, those totals, both the per-season average (1.0) and the AV total (9) are each the worst by any team in any one round over the first three rounds of the draft. Marcus Maye has provided 8 AV so far, an average of 4.0 per season that makes him a slightly above-average second round value. Of course, it’s the other two bombs that caused this catastrophe. Christian Hackenberg laid a goose egg and Devin Smith put up a measly total of 1 AV.
    • Altogether, the Maccagnan-led Jets were arguably the worst drafting team in the NFL beyond the first round. Their total of 80 AV from post-first round picks is easily the worst in the league. The 19 AV difference between the 32nd-ranked Jets and the 31st-ranked Raiders is the largest disparity between any two neighboring spots on the list.
    [​IMG]
    • I came up with a metric called “Net AV” — which showed the disparity between a team’s actual AV production and the AV production they should be expected to have based on which round each of their picks were made in (using the average AV per season value of a pick in each round, based on the 2014-15 drafts). Basically, it shows how much a team exceeded or fell short of expectations.
    For example, I found that first round picks tend to produce an average of about 5.6 AV per season. Four seasons have passed since Leonard Williams was drafted in the first round, so his “expected AV” would be about 22.4. Given that Williams has accumulated a career total of 35 AV, that would make him a +12.6 value. Combine this value from every selection a team has made, and you have their total Net AV.
     
  5. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,280
    Likes Received:
    28,706
    Past the first round, Maccagnan’s Jets have posted a Net AV of -30.77, fourth-worst in the league, as their 80 AV fell short of their expected value of about 111. On a per-player basis, the average post-first round Jets selection has had a Net AV value of -1.28, the worst mark in the league.

    [​IMG]
    • Overall, with all rounds of the draft included, the Jets checked in at 25th in Net AV.
    [​IMG]
    Where do you think Mike Maccagnan stood against the rest of the league?
     
  6. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2008
    Messages:
    22,232
    Likes Received:
    12,243
    But is he really a trouble maker? Mac was indecisive, had a hard time making the TOUGH decisions.

    I'll give Gase a shot, but Mac should have been kicked to the curb when Bowles was fired. Johnson dropped the ball on that.
     
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  7. mr nyjet

    mr nyjet Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2002
    Messages:
    9,032
    Likes Received:
    672
    the fact that the jets were the WORST team in the league drafting after the first round is all the reason you need to fire him.
    no matter when. if gase can pick a guy who actually knows how to draft, like the douglas/ eagles guy, then i am all for it.
     
  8. The cure to literally everything that ails the Jets is drafting better.Put together a real scouting dept for the long term modeled after Cowboys/Steelers/Ravens.

    Have the actual conviction to put prototypes into place of what a Jet should be & quit out smarting yourselves around every turn.
     
  9. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    12,518
    Likes Received:
    11,420
    Well in retrospect he should have been kicked at the same time as Bowles, I know people like the new GM to have a year to assess but if you are sacking somebody I would rather the new guy came in and drafted, it isn't like he would be blind to the needs of the Jets or the prospective draftees, the guy would still have had a finger on the pulse or indeed still been employed at some other team, it is so frustrating to waste another opportunity to do it right.

    So the next guy in has to like Gase or it is utterly pointless.

    As for the troublemaking, it just seems odd that Mac wasn't sacked, rumours of a row emerge and then a couple of weeks later Mac is gone and let's be honest the sacking was out of the blue if we disregard the row rumour, so the conclusion rightly or wrongly is to look at the remaining party, Gase says Hi ;)
     
  10. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    14,203
    Likes Received:
    10,165
    what? literally every position is better by quite a bit from when he took over with the exception of C and much younger
    depends what you mean for turnaround. typically 3-4 years for big improvement (bottom team to middle of the pack) 4-5 years to compete for playoffs/make playoffs and 5-6 years for a deep playoff run or SB run

    that's exactly the timeline for the rams BTW who has arguably the best GM in the NFL and started with a better roster then mac. this season now will be year 3 of a rebuild for the jets. if we are a middle of the pack team (7-9 wins), then we are right on schedule.

    of course wins and losses are the end game, but you don't get wins and losses without stability. as they say sometimes you have to pick a horse and ride it out. changing GMs and coaches every 2-3 years will never lead to sucess. it leads to perpetual rebuilds. anytime you install a new regime (GM and coach) you have to give them 5 years to see it through. the problem is everytime we are on the cusp of getting those wins, we change everything and start over. it's the lack of patience that has cost us so much. think about this. pittsburg is a perpetual winner. all the players have changed over the years but what hasn't changed? they've only had 3 head coaches in their history and the rooney family running the show. stability at the top is important to building a winning franchise. plus how many jets "cast offs" have won SBs? at least a couple i can think of. we never give someone a fair chance

    i can't go back and find something from that long ago but it was pretty common knowledge (you probably said it yourself) at the time. no GM comes in with a ton of money and no talent and a few picks and only signs over the hill older players. the jets were trying to fill seats and idzik was fired for rebuilding and wiping out the roster.
     
    K'OB likes this.
  11. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,280
    Likes Received:
    28,706
    On the ganggreennation.com podcast, where Tony Pauline (the one who broke the story on trouble between Mac and Gase) is a guest, one can hear the following:

    Mac and Gase had problems almost before the ink was dry on Gase's contract.

    Tony Pauline heard about it at the beginning of FA. He was told by someone in the league whom he trusts that Mac would probably not survive the Anthony Barr situation.

    Tony said that almost from the beginning Adam Gase was saying that Mac had to go.

    The Jets courted Matt Paradis. Paradis was in NYC at the NFL HQ on the first day of FA. Both his agent and he expected to get a contract offer from the Jets and didn't. The agent was ready to drive to Florham Park and sign the contract. That created a major rift between Mac and Gase. Gase wanted Paradis.

    A week before the draft Mac, Gase and another individual from the Jets' FO (Heimerdinger?) went to dinner, aired differences and tried to resolve their issues and seemingly did, but it didn't last because of Gase's personality.

    Mac was being overpowering, overburdening.

    Tony Pauline heard before the Combine that the Jets were only going to look at 2nd tier FA RBs like Tevin Coleman because they didn't want to spend a lot of money on a RB and they thought that Coleman was a better fit for Gase's offense (outside, zone runner). Le'Veon Bell's agents told Pauline that even before the Sr. Bowl, the Jets were showing little interest in Bell.

    Pauline wonders if because of the Barr situation, Mac felt he had to go out and make a big splash.

    Pauline said that Gase really wanted TE Daniel Fells, and that when Mac didn't sign him, Gase complained to people outside the organization. He was frustrated that he didn't have the say over personnel that he wanted.

    Pauline said that there was a major rift between Mac and Gase, a power struggle, and it was a failure of leadership from Chris Johnson.

    Pauline thinks that Mac not signing a starting C and Edge Rusher in FA had a lot to do with the problems.

    Mac and Gase have totally opposite personalities. It's known around the league that Mac can't make a decision. He frets over the pros and cons.

    He doesn't think that there was any one event or decision that changed Chris Johnson's mind.

    He doesn't think Joe Douglas will be allowed to come to the Jets. They have blocked other teams from speaking to him before. He thinks they will offer him a promotion.

    Pauline thinks that Woody is better than Chris Johnson. I disagree with that.
     
    sec314 and ColoradoContrails like this.
  12. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Messages:
    14,203
    Likes Received:
    10,165
    on the roster doens't mean anything. there is a big difference in a guy like herndon compared to a guy like peake but both are "on the roster" If anything it's good he's willing to cut ties with people not getting it done early then to let them hang around. You'd have to look at how many picks they had and how many are average to above average starters, how many all-pro, how many big contributors/role players, and how many busts
     
    Jets81 likes this.
  13. K'OB

    K'OB 2021 TGG Fantasy Football Champ

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2016
    Messages:
    12,518
    Likes Received:
    11,420
    Well what a fucking shit show and Gase better be a success real sharp or he just looks the mouthy sob
     
  14. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    14,400
    Likes Received:
    21,477
    Yes, if Chirs knew in January that he was going to fire Mass and allowed him to do FA and the draft, that would be stupid, but from what we know Chris didn't have that mindset then. In January he still thought Macc was a decent GM (why he believed this is another issue), but it was over the intervening months that he came to see that this was a bad judgment. He then did his "deep dive" and confirmed his suspicions, and then acted. Isn't that what you would want someone to do? He didn't overreact, and he did his own investigation to see things for himself. And then, once he made his decision, he took action. I'm surprised you don't agree with this.
     
    Acad23 likes this.
  15. Jets81

    Jets81 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2003
    Messages:
    6,238
    Likes Received:
    3,838
    It’s funny that Gase is taking all the fire for Mac being a crappy GM.
     
    Acad23, NCJetsfan, Jeti and 3 others like this.
  16. CotcheryFan

    CotcheryFan 2018 ROTY Poster Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2018
    Messages:
    7,233
    Likes Received:
    9,922
    I'll give him credit for Herndon, but he looks like the exception and not the rule when it comes to his round 2-4 picks.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  17. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    1,308
    The timing of Pioli resigning from Atlanta is very intriguing, if the Philly guy is blocked

    Personally not a huge fan of Pauline, though some of that explanation seems to make sense -- failed at C and Edge so let's make some big splashes.
     
  18. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    1,308
    In the past I saw similar analysis (can't find now) where they used Net AV but compared it to picks made in the same exact slots in other years, also wasn't pretty. Coaching sucked for sure, but there's a simile reason why we have sucked for years even in years where the schedule was supposed to be weaker for us: we didn't have the talent.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  19. Linebacker712

    Linebacker712 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2015
    Messages:
    1,256
    Likes Received:
    1,571
    I have to wonder if picking up Quinnen Williams helped seal the deal. Now, nothing against Quinnen; he's obviously very talented, and he seems like he's a pretty classy and likeable guy to boot. I'm not unhappy to have him on the team. But that said, Mac drafting him was just another case of Mac being ultra-cautious, picking the BPA, and completely ignoring, for over a decade and a half now, the dire need for an edge rusher. And this despite the fact that there were MULTIPLE edge rushers available to him, many of which could also potentially be considered the best player available.
     
  20. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2016
    Messages:
    14,400
    Likes Received:
    21,477
    Well there is a lot of power if that's the way it goes, but don't forget that reporting structure and hierarchy do still mean something. If Gase's "whispering" in Chris's ear doesn't bring results, he too will be gone. While the "co-equal" structure is a bad one IMO, what is NOT "co-equal" is that Chris is at the top of the food chain. All the byzantine games played underneath him can create dysfunction and news stories, but what Chris has just shown us is that he's much more aware of all this stuff now and will insert himself more often. I think he'll be the ultimate check on Gase.
     

Share This Page