Well then I guess the Chiefs have nothing to worry about right? Pencil Mahomes in for 50 TDs every year I guess, right?
Regression to the mean is a wonderful thing. Players who are extremely successful relative to what is viewed as their "true" level in their first year tend to do worse the next year, just because of random fluctuation (Dak Prescott being a perfect example). That's where the myth of the sophomore slump originates. Players who are extremely unsuccessful relative to what is viewed as their "true" level in their first year tend to do better the next year, just because of random fluctuation (Goff, Wentz, and Bortles are examples). People just ascribe that to "they're learning the game," ignoring the random aspect. Tom Brady isn't really relevant - he had a mediocre first year starting (18 TD, 12 INT, 6.9 YPA, 86.5 passer rating), and he had a somewhat above mediocre second year (28 TD, 14 INT, 6.3 YPA, 85.7 passer rating). (Everyone forgets that on January 5, 2003, everyone would have taken the Jets' QB situation over the Patriots' QB situation, 10 times out of 10.) Every now and then you have people who start at a high level and stay there - people like Rodgers and Wilson. They're the very rare exceptions. Will that be true of Mahomes? If so, he's a lock for the Hall of Fame. Maybe it will happen, but it's not the way to bet at this point.
Mahomes should have a solid year next year, but people will still consider him having a "slump" because he won't throw for 50 TDs next year. I do think the sophomore slump is a myth. A lot of QBs take their teams to the SB in their 2nd year starting. Goff is the exception to the rule, being in the league 3 years but under the same system 2 years in a row. Don't be surprised if Mahomes has a similar type of season, 2nd year starting in the same system. He played 1 game his rookie year.
I agree most sophomore "slumps" are regressions to the mean, but I think sophomore improvements are in large part due to learning the game. Because I'm fairly certain QB stats typically go up from Year 1 to Year 2. Maybe there are other factors as well (QB was highly drafted because team was awful the year before, and the team is still bad in Year 1), but I think learning matters.
I don't recall any 1st year starters in recent memory that started at an elite NFL level and fell off the cliff in their second year starting who weren't injured. I'd love a few examples. I do agree with your basic point of why people think there's a sophomore slump. If anything the recent past seems to say the opposite.
Ah, just seen he had played/started 13 times the second season, I see he was injured and missed pre-season warm-ups etc after injuring himself in the wild card game previous season, didn't actually know that tbh Always the talk of him was being such a second season let down for what he cost the Skins in the draft. Seems injuries have affected him a lot tbh.
its because you are designing your study to give you the results you want. A) There are very few players in general that had a rookie year you could describe as "elite" to begin with. Forget recent memory- - 3 or 4, or 5 guys total in the history of the game?? Were talking about rookie seasons here B) then "fell off a cliff" is obviously not a scientific metric for those small handful of guys as well. [if Mahomes has 25 TDs in 2019, is that "falling off a cliff"? 25 TDs aint really bad. But a 50% decrease in output is certainly falling off a cliff!!?!, so what are we doing here??? we can't even determine what this means let alone apply it to the severely limited first grouping of guys! C) Plussss they can't be injured for some reason? Why??? isn't injury something that a player can avoid with their play? Especially a QB. Someone going through a slump is going to hold onto the ball longer or take off and run with it instead, which in turn makes them more injury prone. No wonder you can't think of anyone!
I can't think of one should have been construed as a question. KOB certainly did. Interesting take. The reason I was interested is because the Jets have a second year starter who wasn't all that good last year. I certainly have higher expectations for Sam next year. That's the reason I looked to begin with. The idea that Sam would have a sophomore slump based on recent history seemed like compete BS. Why should it be any different for Mahomes? I didn't design any study. You made a comment as if it was a fact. My basic recollection of recent past like Goff and Wentz suggested that what you said smelled like BS. I just looked at a handful of good and not so good QB's from 1 year to another. Totally random guys that popped in my head. It wasn't a study nor did I make a claim of statistical proof. I just looked at a little data to see if what you said made any sense since recent history and my memory suggests it's the exact opposite. Mahomes will be compared to other NFL QB's every year. I'm not suggesting if he isn't the NFL MVP next year it's because of a Sophomore slump I thought that's your point? My contention is Mahomes is an elite NFL talent which was obvious before he was drafted and even more obvious in the rear view mirror. I suspect his stats won't be as good next year but he will still be in the top 10 in many major categories if he doesn't get hurt. You seem to suggest that Mac was right to pass on him because he is likely a 1 year wonder. I think you're out of your mind. .
You can put the 50 TDs in pencil but the fact that he will be one of the top QBs in permanent marker.
Where very clear on Mahomes. It's my opinion that Mac passed on an elite talent when the Jets needed a QB. I know that Arians loved him and Dorsey traded up to get him. Mac gave up draft capital to draft Sam. It looks like a good move. If Sam turns into as good a QB as Mahomes in year 2, Mac gets a huge pass because the Jets will be a playoff team.
He's already one of the top QB's. If he stays with Reid, I expect that will continue despite losing some key weapons. However, if the Jets drafted him he'd be on his 3rd OC already, and would never have had those offensive weapons. I don't believe the results would have been as good here as what he's seen with KC. I also don't fault Mac for not banking his career on him with the 6th pick a couple years ago, and I'm happy with who we have instead.
I suspect Patrick Mahomes in Todd Bowles' system doesn't put up 50 TDs I also don't think Sam Darnold will throw for 50 touchdowns in year 2, so your second sentence is likely not going to come to fruition as well
That’s just a set up so that if his numbers drop from All World to just All Pro, they can feel better about themselves.
The NFL is a copy cat league. That's why Mahomes wasn't considered the No. 1 pick. Sadly Mac had an opportunity to lead the paradigm shift instead of follow it. Banking on a these innovators is what separates great organizations from the pack. The league is about evolution and tape. Offenses evolve to take on defenses, defenses evolve to take away the new things O's do. Most of the pack is following the evolution. Formations have changed to attack defenses, defenses change to take it away. Guys like Walsh came up with an innovative way to attack NFL D's and D's adjusted. SD in 79 went to a 1 back O to put 4 WR on the field to attack D's designed to stop the run. Philadelphia used RPO's to beat the Pats. BB has changed up almost every year to attack in different ways. Michael Jordan didn't go No. 1 in the NBA draft because the NBA was still running both their Offense and defense through the center. They didn't see it coming. The Jets under Mac are following. Sam is a very young QB with lots of talent. I'm hopeful Gase is going to be on the cutting edge instead of a follower. I hope the Jets get a GM who can see the future instead of getting pulled into it. Passing on Mahomes will only look smart if Sam is used to his full potential.
Just to clarify they traded their Pro-bowl 12 win passing efficiency leading MVP candidate starting QB to clear the way for Mahomes. It’s not like he was taking over for Fitzpatrick or McCown. Lol
