I can't see any way that Mayfield will drop to 7. There are far too many teams in need of a Q/B and there will always be someone who will cash in all their chips to make that big move.
If you'd trade down, then you'd never get Mayfield, and you would soon realize what a colossal mistake that you had made, one that would in all likelihood, cost you your job. There is plenty wrong with taking an OG over a FQB prospect. No OG, no matter how good, is better or worth more than a FQB prospect, particularly when your team has a desperate need at QB. Second, and more importantly, I think that Baker Mayfield is not only a much better player than Nelson, I think that he is hands down the best QB in this class, and it's not even close. The more I read about him, the more video analysis I watch, the more I like him. I can't believe anyone watching him play, looking at his numbers, seeing how he blows away all the other QBs in almost every category, could doubt him. The numbers are broken down more than ever before into number of passes thrown at each distance, the accuracy at each of those distances, QBR at each distance, how they produce under pressure, etc. Mayfield beats them all. In a number of categories Darnold and Rosen aren't even in the top 3. Jackson or one of the 3rd/4th tier QBs were better.
Listing all the statistics Mayfield is awesome in is meaningless unless you can also show that those stats are correlated with NFL success.
No, it isn't. They reflect his ability to make good decisions, make all the throws, and with a high degree of accuracy. There have been a lot of spread offense QBs who haven't come close to Mayfield's level of success/achievement. Using your rationale, measurables are meaningless, as is the Combine, production and everything else. There are no guarantees and direct correlations, but you already knew that.
My interpretation of what HOTJ said was NOT that statistics are meaningless, but they need context, particularly in regards how they translate to the pros. Yes, Baker has phenomenal numbers, but when you watch his tape he's not that pinpoint accurate. Sure, he's accurate enough to allow his receivers - who are often pretty wide open - to snag the ball, but the numbers don't tell the whole story. Compare his throws to Rosens and see the difference. Rosen is often throwing more difficult passes, but the throws themselves are right out of a textbook. I won't speak for HOTJ, but I agree that Mayfield has a lot going for him, but the type of game his team played, and the teams he played against are far different than any pro team, and he will have significant adjustments to make. I do believe he will make them, but the team he goes to will also have to adjust for him if they want him to succeed, and when have the Jets ever done that well?
I'm not saying they're meaningless, only that they aren't as important as you're making them out to be. The problem is a lot of college stats don't carry over to the NFL (e.g. first round QBs with higher passer ratings in college don't have higher passer ratings in the NFL), so looking at them out of context is misleading. I still like Mayfield though, I'd take him over Allen. Though since he's a spread QB we'll have to run an offense that fits his strengths. See Jared Goff under Sean McVay vs Jeff Fisher.
Has Mayfield missed some throws? Yes, but all QBs do. I have compared his throws to Rosen's and Mayfield is more accurate imo and makes better decisions. You know that I like Rosen, and he is my 2nd choice, but imo Mayfield is more accurate than Rosen, and is a better QB.
The NFL is a higher level than college and DBs are better and coverages tighter, so no, passer ratings don't usually improve from college to the NFL, but they are important because they give an idea of the QB's abilities: his decision making, his accuracy, his poise (or lack thereof) and play under pressure, whether he can make all the throws, his efficiency, and much more. Anyone who dismisses them does so at his own peril and to his team's detriment.
After much talking with both my Dad and brother today, I am all in on Mayfield. I think he is exactly what this team needs. A fierce leader, chip on his shoulder, accurate, strong arm, ability to move in/out of the pocket. Give me Mayfield!
How is that obvious? Interviews he is a cocky shit stain, constantly putting out this aura of how much better he is than everyone else. He is the kind of kid that FEEDS and CARES a ton about what others think of him, he is used to everyone praising him, putting him up on that kings throne. What happens when he doesn't get that praise? What happens when the media starts shitting on him, things don't go right? I think he falls apart. He reminds me of some of my jock friends in school, always thinking they were better than everyone else, always belittling the "unpopular" kids because they were simply too cool for them. Above it all. He has that persona. When Ryan fucking Leaf is reminded of himself by looking at your character, like he does with Mayfield, that's scary AF to me. You clearly love Mayfield and are blinded by the narrative of him but If you look past that fluff, it's not hard to see how truly unimpressive he really looks.
I am still not sold on him as much I've argued for him here. I'm not sold on any of these QBs. People have sold this draft as a monster QB draft for years and I'm not seeing it. The best players that come out this year by far will not be throwing the ball. But the NFL has enabled the QB position so much with the rules and ref calls that you need to get a young one and try to develop him. Look at some of the turds that have floated to the surface in the past two seasons. So, a QB is what the Jets need to draft. And if they take a QB, I want the most successful, most footbally guy possible, the guy that only cares about football and hates everyone that knocks him. And Baker Mayfield is that fucking guy.
But numbers on their own don't tell a complete story. Put Mayfield on Wyoming and his numbers dive. Probably that combined with his height takes him out of most QB talk.
I think you've got him mixed up. Two-time walk on to Heisman winner is not someone who is "used to everyone praising him". This is a guy who has been told his entire life that he's a short little good for nothing. If this message board is a sample size, I'd hardly describe "everyone praising him" as what he's dealt with his entire life. This guy spits in the face of his haters where most would simply shrivel under the same scrutiny. Not quite the same.
See, these arguments are ridiculous because you actually make one valid point, then immediately follow it up by doing the exact same thing you are criticizing. You are saying: 1) success at college only has limited projection ability: TRUE. Then you say 2) if he goes to Wyoming, his numbers dive. How the hell do you make THAT projection?
Napoleon 5'7", Stalin 5'6", Hitler 5'9" with very small hands, FDR 6'2", Lincoln 6'4" with a rocket arm. The three short guys were very successful, had a chip on their shoulder and an amazing winning percentage. FDR and Lincoln were better in the big game. I'm all in on Allen.
Unfortunately there is no merit to this statement. There is no way to actually prove this. I could say putting Allen on Oklahoma and nothing changes. No proof. Sanchez on the Patriots and he wins 5 Super Bowls. No proof. This is not a good argument. It's only a guess.
I’m glad you posted this because that would have been my reply. Baker is not an entitled kid, it’s in fact quite the opposite. If he continues to use the slights as motivation than landing him third would only add to that because he believes he’s the best QB in the class. I love his fire. With him on offense and Adams on defense we would certainly have a better locker room from when Mo and Sheldon were around.
Agreed that's a tough projection. What you can project is if Josh Allen was the OK QB during the Mayfield period they win 10 to 12 games a year. The reason I say that is they did it before Mayfield got there with Blake Bell and Trevor Knight. FYI both Bell and Knight were drafted into the NFL in the 4th round. I think they're both gone.
“I think, probably, the comparison with me is more appropriate,” Leaf said last month on FOX Sports Radio. “The highly competitive, borderline arrogant, angry individual. . . . The biggest thing for me will be how he deals with failure. That’s where my downfall was, when things began to fall apart, how I was able to deal with that. When the media is on you, you play a bad game, your whole city is on you, that’s where we’ll see where Baker Mayfield is at. . . . Right now there’s no evidence to back up that when things get tough, he won’t break.” - Ryan Leaf In college, Baker was able to transfer colleges, what will happen in the NFL?
