Love it-- "Stats are for losers". The guy who made that site drives an IROC-Z, or a Trans Am with the full screaming chicken on the hood.
I totally disagree with the bolded sentence. Stats reflect production. While one has to consider influencing factors like system, other talent around the player in that system, level of competition, etc. It is an important factor to consider. It's funny how you and some others are so quick to dismiss positive stats, but if those same players had put up poor stats, you would have been quick to dismiss that player as not being worthy. Production and stats are very important components or aspects of what should be considered; otherwise, you're looking at measurables like speed (Al Davis) and looking at workout warriors and Combine stars. Jace Amaro looked stiff on the playing field. Anyone with any eyes at all and knowledge of the game could see it. Something like 95% of his catches were within 5 yards of the LOS and he was always wide open and the catches uncontested. He was one of the worst picks in a long, sorry history of horrific picks by the Jets. For every example like Mayfield, at least 2 or 3 more could be given of players who were Combine stars, workout warriors, or who had prototypical measurables who failed miserably.
Darnold is on the verge of being my 4th as well. I can't tell you why Colorado has him ranked that low, but I can tell you why I do. There are several things that have me down on him. 1. He only has 1 1/2 years of starting experience. Not only is that the least of the top 4 prospects, it's probably the least of any QB prospect in this draft. More importantly, I read an article recently that indicated that no QB with so little starting experience had ever become a top QB in the NFL. Sanchez only had one year. 2. His TOs. Not only is his decision making bad, resulting in quite a few interceptions, but he has a hitch in his throwing motion which may not be able to be corrected, and if not, will most likely result in a lot of batted down and intercepted passes in the NFL. In addition, he holds the ball to low in the pocket and has had an inordinate number of fumbles/strip sacks in college. That will be only worse in the NFL if not corrected, and again, that is something that may not be able to be corrected. It probably can, but there are no guarantees. 3. More than any other QB in this draft, he is a product of hype. That hype is based almost solely on the 2016 season. That's when all the "Suck for Sam" talk began. 4. He regressed badly this past season. 5. Mayfield is criticized or dismissed because he played in the Big 12 in a spread offense, yet Darnold played in a version of the spread, in a conference where the D's and pass coverage are little better, if any, than the Big 12, threw a lot of interceptions, yet gets a pass. 6. Of the top 4 QBs, he's probably the worst fit for the Jets' offense. 7. I think he has the 2nd highest bust potential of the top 4 QBs. 8. I think he's the least ready to play in the NFL, and will need to sit the longest to have a good chance to succeed. If he starts immediately, he's gonna bust. 9. He probably has the weakest arm of the top 4 QBs. He isn't the most accurate, he isn't the most athletic, he isn't the best leader, he doesn't have the strongest arm, and he isn't the best at creating/extending plays. I'm truly perplexed why so many see him as the consensus #1 QB. I don't want him. If Rosen and Mayfield go 1-2 in the draft, then I'd be hard-pressed to take Darnold over Allen. Like Colorado, Darnold is slipping below Allen for me. I think the Jets are screwed if they have to take one of those two guys (Darnold - Allen) at #3.
Nonsense. Talent is important to be sure, but if one dismisses production/stats, then one becomes another Al Davis who fell in love with fast players. Then the major factors become prototypical measurables and the Combine, and we already know how stupid that is and how many of those types of players bust.
It's quantity vs. quality of things needed to work on. Mayfield may have more things to work on than Allen (I'm not sure that's true at all), but the things Allen has to work on are more difficult to fix, less likely to be fixed, and will probably take longer.
Exactly. There have been tons of very good football players who were overlooked, who dropped in the draft because they didn't meet some prototypical standard. Quite a few of those became All Pros and HOFers. Physical size and talent alone are no more important than heart, intelligence (Football IQ) and mental makeup (hard worker, burning desire to be the best, competitive fire).
We also know how many guys with great college "Stats" are complete busts in the NFL. What we don't know is how many college players with great production who have no pro measurable would have done in the NFL because they aren't in the NFL. They're lucky if they sign on as an UDFA and usually wash out as training camp fodder. The other side of your coin is if we just look at college stats as a basis to draft it would be a really stupid idea. College production is not the same thing as stats that are comparable and have any scientific basis of comparison. I think we actually have a statistician on this board. It would be nice if he chimed in on this one. FYI Al Davis is in the NFL HOF. You may not remember but before he turned into an old out of date owner, who was somewhat demented, he was one of the most innovative and successful men in Football history. His teams won 13 divisional titles, 1 AFL title and 3 SB'S. He was also the first owner to hire both a Hispanic Head coach and African American head coach. He scouted and drafted players from all black colleges when most NFL owners shunned them. He put together some of the great teams in NFL history. He drafted and traded for several HOF players. I know it's fun to think of him as an old man who could barely put two sentences together but the guy was one of the best in the business when he was in his prime. The NY Jets have never had an owner or a GM that could remotely compare to Al Davis. Al Davis loved measurable physical traits that were absolutely comparable from one athlete to another. When he was in his prime and sane, he put together great teams. FYI the Jets super bowl team was built around guys who had tremendous size, speed, strength and eye hand coordination.
Despite the fact that im leaning more towards mayfield being the pick even over Rosen, I stand by what i said. For one,shying Away from elite physical attributes bc weve sucked at developing QBs in the past is incredibly self defeating. Secondly while i think there are legit reasons to like Mayfield over Allen i dont agree that development is a strong argument...In the Bates scheme?Maybe.But from a wider lense absolutely not. Additionally why prioritize timeframe for development when the QB sitting behind 2 strong veteran presence for a year anyway?This logic drives me crazy.It flawed & self defeating.
Awesome article! Thanks for posting! There's a wealth of interesting information in that article. The first thing that jumped out at me is when looking at the polls/lists put together by Bob McGinn, writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, is just how awful many of the QB draft classes have been since 2005. It's little wonder that there is such a dearth of quality QBs in the NFL. Between them and the lack of quality pass-blocking OL, it makes me wonder why the NFL is still trying to make it a passing league. During that time there have been a lot of very good RBs, perhaps the league would be better served going back to 3 yards and a cloud of dust. That's a discussion for another time and another thread, however. It was interesting to see that the scouts and personnel executives in those polls thought Geno Smith was the best QB in that draft class which is contrary to what some posters here have claimed. It was also interesting to see that those executives and scouts had Bryce Petty as the 3rd best QB prospect in the 2015 draft and that stands in contrast to what we've read/heard recently. It was also interesting that they had Mariota rated over Winston (I did too). It was also very interesting to learn that the Cowboys tried to trade up for Paxton Lynch and failed, then planned to take Connor Cook, but the Raiders took him and they "settled" for Dak Prescott, who BTW was rated below Hack by those scouts and executives. That part of the article just goes to show how mistaken/biased/blind the professional scouts and personnel executives can be. Here's another really interesting tidbit: IMO this is the biggest news of this article, and could be a reason why so many QBs are failing: There is so much more in this article. I learned a lot. I think it's definitely one of, if not THE best football article I've ever read regarding the draft, and the mistakes teams make. Everyone here should read this article. It would make the level of discussion higher.
You're making a strawman argument here. I didn't even mention our sucking at developing QBs. It doesn't matter what past CSs and regimes have done. Bates is our OC now, we have two veteran QBs who can help with developing the rookie. It will be a very different situation than we've seen before with the Jets. You're the one who brought up timeframe and what Mayfield and Allen had to work on., so it's your logic that you're driving yourself crazy with, my friend. Also, you don't know that there will be 2 strong veteran presences for a year. Teddy could prove to not be close to being healthy and the Jets may cut bait with him following TC or preseason. One of McCown or Bridgewater could go down with injury. The rookie the Jets draft could come in an play so well that he forces Bowles and the Jets to start him in spite of the issues he has and in spite of their plans to let him sit for a year. I also wouldn't call McCown a strong QB. He's experienced and can help with teaching the offense and some of issues with playing QB in the NFL, but from a talent perspective, from a production perspective, and from a mental and leadership perspective, the rookie could already be ahead of McCown.
