I'm ready to finalize my thoughts on this QB class. I didn't do this last year but I did in 2016: http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/my-take-on-2016-qbs.86113/ Notably Dak Prescott is completely missing from that list, but I made that thread in the very beginning of January before draft media had gotten going so I had never even heard his name. I'm pretty happy with how everything else looks in hindsight. For 2017, Mahomes was my favorite QB pretty much ever, I thought Trubisky could be a solid game manager but never a top end starter, and I admittedly wasn't a fan of Watson. We'll see how he fares in cold weather and if he can get that INT rate down before I eat crow on that one. Onto 2018, which I think is the best class out of the 4 I've followed closely (2015-pres). I'm only going to rank the top 4 since they're the only ones we figure to have any form of interest in. This post is waay too long, so I had to break it up into individual posts. Here they come...
1). Sam Darnold, USC To me, Darnold is the only of the top 4 QB's that doesn't have any significant question marks. He is an extremely proficient thrower both from the pocket and on the move. He has excellent touch and an impressive natural feel for the passing game over the middle of the field. He consistently completes touch passes over defenders as well as ripping the ball into tight windows when necessary. His arm strength is more than good enough to be a top end starter. His big, physical frame makes him tough to take down and when he breaks the pocket he's as good at improvising as anyone in the last couple classes. He is very precise at hitting receivers on the correct shoulder in order to allow for yards after the catch instead of merely settling for completions. Kicks his game into another gear in the red zone and in clutch moments. Has outstanding anticipation, demonstrating an amazing ability to release the ball before his receiver's breaks are completed and still hit them in stride. He's a more refined version of Mayfield without the size concerns, and the fact that he's only 20 years old gives him plenty of room to develop even further. There are several slight concerns, none of which are detrimental in my eyes. His release has a tendency to be loopy. However, I would be careful to confuse the length in ball path with a length in time. While he drops the ball lower than you'd like to see, he still gets the ball out relatively quickly. He also has a good habit of tightening up his release when defenders are around him to further alleviate this issue. I don't think his release needs significant improvement, and I think it'd be best to leave it alone to keep him comfortable. His feet, on the other hand, are not very well married to his eyes. He tends to jump around in the pocket and drift a little bit, and his slight accuracy issues arise when he doesn't get his feet fully set. He fumbles too much, which seems to be a function of his propensity to look for the big play. While he is relatively quick at processing his progressions, he spends too much time looking downfield trying to hit a homerun. Occasionally he'll get caught playing hero ball resulting in these turnovers (blindside strip sacks/forced interceptions). However, I think an elite quarterback needs to be aggressive. Again, he's very young and has plenty of time to discern the line between hero ball and proper aggressiveness. Comparison: Jameis Winston. I think this is a pretty clean one. Both were very young coming out of college, had a great feel for the game despite aggressiveness leading to turnovers and are big bodied with the ability to improvise and extend plays.
2). Josh Rosen, UCLA The best quarterback in the draft when kept clean. Has prototypical height and release/footwork that are borderline perfect. Every fundamental is what you'd design if you could build a QB from scratch. These perfect mechanics lead him to be the only QB in the top 4 that can consistently hit deep passes (Mayfield tends to underthrow, Allen overthrows, Darnold sprays). Precision passing into tight windows is best in class. Anticipation on out-breaking throws is outstanding. Enough arm strength to make any throw and willingly does so with ease. Like Darnold, is reluctant to settle for checkdowns, challenging the defense downfield whenever possible. Stands tall in the pocket in the face of pressure and does not shy away from contact (follows through even through a hit). The primary concern that keeps him below Darnold for me is his reaction to pressure. His mobility is very poor and his game deteriorates when forced off of his spot. Most alarming is his need to reset his feet outside of the pocket instead of throwing on the run. He suffered several big hits and fumbles over this in college and it won't fly in the NFL either. He needs to get better at throwing on the move instead of trying to reset. He has decent pocket awareness but his movements are often too subtle to make a difference. He'll feel a pass rusher coming and slide up in the pocket, but it's such a slight movement that he's sometimes still in reach of the defender. There are times where this subtlety is a good thing but others where ne needs to move more to avoid the rush. His willingness to stand tall and throw when a big hit is imminent leads to concerning shots to his less than full frame. Will occasionally neglect an underneath defender and throw into coverage. Comparison: Eli Manning. Another one I'm pretty comfortable with. The pocket mechanics, lack of mobility and relative aggressiveness make them very similar. Eli also resets his feet outside of the pocket instead of throwing on the move. People are comparing Rosen to Matt Ryan, but I think the latter is more mobile.
3). Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Very consistent accuracy over the middle of the field. Very quick, compact release allows him to get rid of the ball cleanly in the short passing game. There's something to be said about consistently getting the ball to the open receiver as frequently as he does. Touch throws are absolutely phenomenal. The most competitive QB in the class, teammates tend to feed off of his energy. Quick processor of information on the field and does not get blindsided by underneath defenders/rolling safeties as often as Darnold/Rosen (however, the Oklahoma offense spreading out the defense may contribute to this). Good enough arm strength to squeeze the ball into tight windows when throwing over the middle of the field. Ability to run or extend passing plays is similar to Darnold's. Height necessitates him to drift through the pocket to find passing lanes, which turns into a positive. Height will be an issue for some but I think his high, quick release and willingness to find passing lanes will prevent it from being crippling. Severely underthrows his deep ball on a regular basis. Despite good arm strength, his tape does not show a significant number of downfield throws outside of the numbers. The antithesis of Allen, he seems infatuated with touch throws and is reluctant to rip the ball. Bad habit for running into pressure before the pocket breaks down. When pressure does arrive, he will sometimes retreat instead of stepping up. His feet are very frenetic leading to an inconsistent base, especially when forced to hold the ball. His feet will get jumpy and widen/narrow multiple times before the throw (could be a reason for his underthrown deep balls). No experience under center and ran a spread offense. Low competition level but played very well vs Ohio St and held up relatively well vs Georgia. Comparison: 2017 Case Keenum. This isn't an insult as Keenum was one of the best QBs in the league this season. Less than ideal height, good enough arm strength and playmaking is largely a function of touch throwing or extending plays outside the pocket.
4). Josh Allen, Wyoming. Has the strongest arm I've ever seen. Strong, thick legs allow him to escape pressure even when in the grasp of a defender. Very athletic in both extending the play to seek a downfield throw or scramble for a first down. A nightmare to tackle in the open field. Intermediate throws outside the numbers arrive ridiculously quickly and usually on-point. Has plays where he steps through the pocket to deliver gorgeous downfield throws. Arm strength allows him to fit the ball into windows that other quarterbacks simply can't. It also affords him patience... since he can get the ball to receivers so quickly, he can hold the ball a few extra beats to allow them to get open. Accuracy issues are vastly overstated. Deep ball is nowhere near as good as it should be for a guy with his arm strength. Consistently overthrows it due to a lack of timing for the deep game. Slow processor of information, will get stuck on his first read for too long and immediately look to leave the pocket if it's covered. Badly lacks anticipation and will throw some out-breaking routes when the receiver is already on the sideline (impressive arm strength but a bad habit). The game moves more quickly at the next level and holding the ball so long will result in pressure. Throwing the ball so late will also allow defenders to key onto where he's throwing. Sometimes overstrides leading to sailing passes over the middle. Needs to learn when he can't throw his fastball so his passes stop getting deflected by underneath defenders. Lots of passes left on the field because he tried to gun it in instead of laying it over the defender. Comparison: Mobile Joe Flacco floor, Carson Wentz ceiling. There are very few available comparisons for a guy with his size and arm strength so I had to lean on two. Also, his NFL career is so dependent on the situation he goes into and whether or not he improves on his major flaws. If he does, he can be as good as any of the 3 I have above him. As it currently stands, he's QB4.
BOTTOM LINE: I think Darnold is the best option in this class because of his natural traits paired with the fact that he's 20 years old. Rosen can be an EXCELLENT player, but I worry that his playstyle (more than his frame) might lead to too many big hits for him to overcome. For this reason, I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed to see us take Mayfield, who I think is essentially an older, less gifted version of Darnold. They both share a natural ability to make plays that I think will lead them both to have successful NFL careers no matter what situation they go into. Allen's ceiling it through the roof, but I'm skeptical that he will ever reach it. I think his slow reaction time is much more of a concern than his "accuracy issues" and will ultimately lead to his NFL demise. For fun, here's where I felt about the last 3 classes coming out of college (as Daniel Jeremiah recently did): Mahomes Darnold Rosen Goff Wentz Mayfield Allen Trubisky Watson I can't believe how low I have Wentz here considering how much I loved him, but it was just tough to find a place for him since I think Goff and Rosen are very similar and I had Goff as QB1 in 2016.
nicely done. appreciate the effort. If you don't mind can you link me some vids showing mayfield throw intermeidate routes over the middle, because all the one's i seen he throws way high and misses. I also don't see him throw a true deep out or in or post or fade or seam route.
I’m going to try my best to learn how to make GIFs because that seems to be the easiest way to get an individual play into these threads. We’ll see how well I’m able to do that haha.
I just did screen grabs like here http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/baker-mayfield-vs-texas-every-throw-broken-down.90290/. gifs are a little tougher but you can use a youtube to gif converter. just google it. tons of free one's out there and you just add in the link and set the start and stop time then press convert
I agree with literally everything you said about this year's QBs, so I have nothing more to say here. Except I think Mahomes is getting too much credit on TGG. He's played one game in the NFL, and he wasn't anything special in that game. Andy Reid is sold enough on him to get rid of Alex Smith, but that doesn't mean he's right.
The rankings I did of the last 3 classes are of what I thought of the players as prospects, not of what they’ve done in the league. I liked Mahomes more than any of the other guys coming out, not factoring in what he did in that one NFL start at all.
Great job BigCat! I disagree with some things, but on balance I think you were fair and balanced in your assessments. I think Rosen moves better than you described, although your point about him needing to set his feet when he scrambles is interesting - I hadn't noticed that. I think the hits he does take are more from hanging onto the ball as you noted and trying to make that big play rather than getting rid of it to fight for another down. Darnold does have a lot of potential and has accomplished a lot, but he's young, and his "regression" this year indicates to me that he should've stayed another year to really refine his game. Trying to do that OJT against much better competition may actually stunt his growth. Based on these two things I place Rosen ahead of Darnold. I also place Mayfield ahead of Darnold because his mechanics are much better and he's proven that he can read the field and he prefers to pass than run. If Darnold had stayed in college I think he would in fact become that bigger, stronger version of Mayfield. And I pretty much agree with your assessment of Allen, although I saw him bailing out of the pocket more, especially when his first receiver isn't there. My current order: 1. Rosen 2. Mayfield 3. Darnolf 4. Allen
Very good job Big Cat. I mostly agree with your assessment. I am retired recently and when it became obvious the Jets were going to have to get a QB I decided I would do my best to form my own opinion. So I DVR'd all the games of the big 4 and watched them all. If I couldn't get a game I would go to youtube after the fact. Having watched them all year. I was very interested in watching the bad games as well as the good ones. I just wanted to add a few things based on my opinion from what I saw. Darnold-I just found it troubling with all his turnovers. Rosen-I felt that many times he would trust his arm to much and get into trouble. Mayfield-I felt he took to many sacks. Allen-I felt he would give up to quickly on plays sometime and start running. This I what felt in addition to all your comments.
I commend your work and commitment to the process. I greatly respect your opinion, but disagree with this evaluation. For starters, Darnold only has 1 1/2 years starting experience, and I don't think a single college QB has succeeded in the NFL with so little starting experience in college. Secondly, he regressed this year. He gets some understanding here due to the injuries and talent issues around him, but still, he did not play nearly as well in 2017 as he did in 2016. Third, I think he needs significant work. He holds the ball too low while in the pocket which led to a lot of fumbles, and will also in the NFL. This can be fixed, but will it? He also threw a lot of interceptions. I don't claim to have seen every one of them, but still he threw a lot, and at least some of them had to have been bad decisions and/or bad throws. I think the hitch or loop in his delivery will lead to more interceptions and knocked down passes in the NFL. If he sits for a year or two and gets in the right system with the right coaching, I think he can possibly develop into a quality NFL starter, if not a very good one. If he is forced to start immediately, doesn't get in the right system or right coaching then I think the chances of his being a bust are almost as high as his chances of being a very good starting QB. Even you compare him with Jameis Winston. How good has he been in the NFL? I don't like Winston and never have. I don't want a Winston-level QB on the Jets. While it's better than anything we've had in a while, I think there are better in this QB class.
I like this analysis. The things that scare me about Rosen are the bolded above when considered in light of his injury history. Those things you cited could have him on IR and out of the NFL in short order if he doesn't quickly learn to make changes/adjustments. Still, he's my 2nd favorite QB in this class.
I haven't seen him severely underthrow his deep ball on a regular basis, but you may have seen more video of him than I have, and I'll take your word for it. Still, I don't think that's a big issue as far as the Jets are concerned with their WCO. In addition, once he straightens out his footwork and gets his hips more fully into his throws, his velocity will get even better. I have seen him hit his receivers in stride on quite a few long passes. I trust that he will be able to fix that deficiency. As smart and football savvy as Mayfield is, I think he will have no problems adjusting to taking snaps under center and with his drops. Those will probably even help his footwork. He is a rhythm passer so I think our offense is perfect for him. I've seen few posters here talk about the fact that Mayfield is the only one of the top 4 QBs with 4 years starting experience and is the only one who has shown consistent progress from year to year. I think that is a BIG point which is being ignored or underrated by many. The other thing that bugs me is that I see a number of posters disparaging Mayfield's play based on playing in a spread offense against weaker competition, but I see few mentioning that Rosen and Darnold played against weaker competition as well, and that level of competition may be below the big 12.
I think your concerns for all 4 QBs are extremely fair. It’s all a matter of which flaws teams think are least important/most easily fixed.
I think a certain level of turnovers is forgivable when a QB is consistently making aggressive decisions down the field, and Darnold falls on the right side of that line for me. Especially considering bid youth, I think he has plenty of time to mature and find the difference between aggressive play and hero ball. Many people will shy away from a Winston-type player over a fear of turning the ball over, but I would much rather have this type of guy than a game manager. I guess it’s a matter of personal preference but I’m willing to tolerate a little uptick in turnovers if it’s offset by enough playmaking. As I mentioned, his delivery is a slight concern for me but I think it’s much quicker than it is short (if that makes sense). He gets the ball out remarkably fast for someone who drops the ball that low and I think it’ll be enough to prevent it from being a consistent problem like Bortles or Tebow. He’s not a flawless prospect but hardly anyone ever is. I think his red flags are much more superficial than any of the other players in this class which is why I have him at the top spot.
