Hey Jay. As always - i appreciate the help you give me man. What time do you think we will start seeing serious snowfall / rain?
Novice here checking in.....snow tonight around ballpark =midnight real stuff tomorrow around morning rush hour give or take an hour until evening,,,,,thoughts
Right now it looks to start in the very early morning hours but doesn't really kick in until rush hour or a bit after.
Speaking of FJF...I just post here and have a terrible habit of not reading much. Just read back...whats the story with FJF? He is moving and stuff? Hes ok?
here is the latest GFS...and I would toss it out. Amazing how the USA is soooo good at so much yet their model is so hit and miss. NOT buying such a west trend with both the precip and the type. The reason numbers are so much lower for the GFS is simple..and here is a good mind tool. The GFS is putting out these numbers because the GFS track is almost on the coast...not out over the Atlantic. Therefore, it has more rain for the coast and even inland. Its not that the GFS is saying less of a storm...its just warmer...so much more rain. Not buying it at all. REMEMBER....counterclockwise rotation around the L...the low pressure..closer to the coast means warmer air from the ocean and EAST WINDS. A bit further out over the ocean gives you Northeast winds....counterclockwise rotation. Where is the ocean water colder.....coming off the Jersey Coast (east winds)...or coming of the New England coast (northeast winds). GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018030606/072/snku_acc.us_ne.png TOSS IT OUT. Here is a hint for tonight and tomorrow..if your winds are from the east? Rain. If they are from the northeast/east? Rain and snow back and forth. If they are from the Northeast...more likely mostly if not all snow.
Great map showing a true miller B storm hand off..first storm comes through the Midwest and throws it energy to the main event off the coast of NC/Virginia MAP: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=351038
Replaced??? No no no my friend. I am just filling in the gaps. And I am all moved in, boxes everywhere but in. Thanks for asking
When is this supposed to stop? I'm here Bergen County NJ. I figure I am going out with the snow blower at least 2 or 3 times throughout the day. I don't want to go out there with a foot or more of the heavy wet stuff and do it all in one shot.
you do a great job bud...very very good. Latest GFS...heres the deal..if the GFS..which has no other model agreeing with it but if it does pan out, it spares all of Long Island, NYC and most of CT of any snow...all rain event. Areas of NW Jersey and South and central NY state still get pounded while NE Jersey is on that fine line. So, here are the definites as it stands right now. Southern and Central NY State will get pounded...as will lets say Western Morris County, all of Sussex and Warren county in N.J. and of course up north towards very very western CT and central and Western Mass. Throw the GFS out and most areas get big snows. So....is the GFS on to something? Huge question.
direct forecast from the NWS...I'm bolding one section that has me confused...and for snow lovers...perhaps concerned...for people that want rain? Possible bright side. Tonight A slight chance of rain between 8pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow. Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Snow. High near 34. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. East wind 8 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly before 11pm. Low around 30. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. North wind 10 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Hmmm...well...that would be a red flag for huge snows but I think at this point for them its a guess..one thing I'm pretty sure of, if the winds are from the east..at minimal, there will be mixing issues. Something to keep an eye on.
latest EURO says the GFS is on drugs. Very easy to see where the rain snow fight begins with the EURO...basically I95. EURO: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=351108 EURO and NAM against the GFS....going with the NAM/EURO.
jay, is this a storm that we should be preemptively being closing school on Long Island (Nassau/Queens) area? Not too much pressure....
Well, I just dragged out the Ariens and it started right up with the electric start no problems. Very glad I spent the extra cash on the Ariens. Quality machine. Laying out salt now. Bring on Quinn!
https://m.sears.com/Craftsman-31AH8...gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CM2Ugu3N2NkCFUUINwod6vQIKg I just bought this one a few months ago for my business parking lot. My parking lot sits in between my 3 story building and a 2 story house next to us so all of the drift settled in between. The other day i was joking with my father about how we have only used it once so far and now here we are prepping it for tomorrow.
