Great post. And the success rate of these types are likely on par w. any other grouping of QB's in any given talent pool. I'm just gonna rattle off some guys who fit the bill off the top of my head JP Losman- Fail Joe Flacco(Considered 2-3 going in) Hit Phillip Rivers(Considered late 1st/2nd before senior bowl) Hit EJ Manuel- Fail Ryan Tannehill- Mixed bag Brandon Weeden-Fail Christian Ponder-Fail Tim Tebow- Fail leaning towards mixed bag...he had some success in Denver when the system suited his skillset Jason Campbell- Mixed bag Kyle Boller- Fail Patrick Ramsey- Fail Drew Brees- Hit(Technically 2nd rounder..but I'm including him b.c he was the first selection of round 2...and the circumstances surrounding his pre draft evaluation) That's about a 15 year sample size. Math works out to a 25% success rate, 16% mixed bag not including Tebow, 50% failure rate including Tebow... I would venture to say this is pretty consistent w. the success rate of QB's of any caliber selected at any juncture...Someone alittle more skilled w. mathematics & analytics might be able to provide more insight which I'd be eager to see...
Pro style offense limits us to maybe 15-20 schools in any given year before you even GET to your other criteria...
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Now I don't think they should take him just to take a QB but if they do like him the way it's been reported then I'm fine with them taking him at any spot. In reality it's only desperation if they take him just to take somebody like you say. If they take him because they recognize the need and truly feel he can fill it it's called smart. It would be called irresponsible if they didn't. I really don't care about the system he played in. I'd much rather select someone who mastered the system he played in then someone like Hack who played in a more pro friendly system but looked lost doing it.
Anyone see Gruden's episode with Mahomes? He raved about his ability to diagnose defenses pre-snap, make adjustments and then execute. He said he has way more control at the line than most spread QBs. After meeting with every top prospect for a day, testing their football IQ and working out with all of them, Gruden called Mahomes QB1.
I was just going to post that, thanks Big Cat. How many QBs has Gruden evaluated over the years? He might know something the popular pundits don't. Even the pundits that showed no early love to Mahomes are jumping on board, likely to cover their asses. Browning maybe Gruden sees or knows something you don't. I trust him because he is one of the few that spoke and worked with the kid outside of pro workouts which are kept close to the vest.
Wentz knows the pro style offense and a lot of other things, doesn't have the bad mechanics like Mahomes. This is true, high risers happen, but I don't necessarily trust them. Like Blake Bortles
Gruden also had a humongous boner for Johnny 8-ball, among other crappy QBs he's over-hyped for ESPN, this was the worst of the worst. Gruden started the draft suggesting every team should select Manziel from pick number 1 until 22 when the Browns finally took him. It was an embarrassment. When the Raiders took Khalil Mack @5, the now reigning defensive player of the year, Gruden ripped into the Raiders for not taking Manziel saying "they must know something I don't" yes, they did.
But why is Mahomes a late riser? Let's look at that portion of things... Nobody is really talking about his pro day, his combine or any postseason all star game...those are usually the first indicators...and are also the one's to stay cautious of... Is it the result of an otherwise weak class pushing up his value? Maybe. There certainly is no far & away can't miss top 5 guy....but there are 3-4 guys w. decent floors & high ceilings who nobody is gonna blink at for going top 20. Additionally...QB stock for any prospect who has any ceiling resembling anything close to an eventual franchise player is going to have inflated stock. Additionally...there have been folks on here & elsewhere within the media..who have never wavered on Mahomes being legit from the very beginning of this whole process So is he really a late riser....or just an acquired taste?
Yeah...I respect Gruden for what he's accomplished & all his knowledge...but I take most of what he says about any QB prospect on his show w. a grain of salt. I do think he's genuine though. i don't think it's a ratings or hype end means...he genuinely appreciates the qualities of most top end QB prospects..and that goes back to his time w. Tampa when it seemed like every week he was signing or trading for another QB to bring into the fold. Maybe it'd help if he had a true franchise guy..but the fact remains the guy is enamored w. QB talent.. I'll say this however...I'm not sure I've ever heard him stick his neck out this much for a QB..especially one that many pundits are down on..to say he's the best QB in the draft means more to me than just "Mahomes is a guy I really like & could go in Round 1" which is his usual M.O.
I think there's truth to him being an acquired taste, mostly due to two perceptions about him, one true and one not. The false assumption about him is that because of his college offense he doesn't read the defense. Gruden, among others, have illustrated ad nauseum that's simply not true. The guy can and does read the field as well as do things like hold a safety with his eyes; something that is difficult for a lot of young QBs. The second perspective, which is true, is that his mechanics are not textbook, not even close. The question then becomes: as a team, can you live with that? Are you willing to let him be himself or are you going to try to "fix" him? I think there's a huge variety of answers to that question subsequently resulting in different people placing different valuations on him. Some, I'm sure, want nothing to do with him. Others see a potential franchise QB. At the end of the day, when opinions are so varied on an individual, it's not unreasonable for a GM to take the cautious conservative approach and treat the prospect with oven mitts. Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
This forum is gonna be such a mess if we take this kid. Half elation, half horror. People were dead on when they said he'd be the most polarizing player in the draft.
ill tell you why he's a late riser. The QB class isn't great it's average to below average, every year there's a high riser and scouts get hyped up. Like I said he's got a great arm, by some chance the Jets freaking draft this kid, I'll root for him of course he seems like a very intelligent / good kid.
The best will be when the Jets take him, redshirt him like they did Hackenberg last year, and carry 4 QBs on the roster again. We're talking, face tearing hysteria and people jumping out of windows and off the side of cliffs type anxiety. Sent from my KIW-L24 using Tapatalk
It won't be that much of a mess. He's a Jet at that point and most people will switch from not wanting him to not wanting him to fail. That's human nature. You may not get "rah rah" out of the crowd but you won't get a lot of instant fail either. Now if he fails, that's when the knives will really come out and that's appropriate in my opinion.
I wouldn't even try and redshirt him. Let him start and develop from day 1. Whoever plays QB for the Jets next year better be able to throw on the run, throw outside the pocket, throw from different angles because on most pass plays there will be little protection. The Jet OL is a big work in progress. Mahomes gives them this ability where Hack, Petty, and Mc don't. His last year at Tech he had almost no time to make a pass from the pocket. Injuries and graduation decimated their OL.
