Watching the game on Sunday, it seemed like every first-down play was a run by Forté. I thought I'd look into the numbers to see if it was as bad as it seemed... Incredibly, it was. The Jets ran 27 first-down plays. Nineteen were runs and sixteen of them went to Forté. In other words, 60% of our first down plays were Forté runs. The second impression I got while watching the game was that Forté was stuffed for a short gain almost every time. Again, this was an accurate impression. Considering anything less than a four-yard gain to be a poor outcome, Forté had ten such plays, including four plays where he got just a single yard and two negative-yardage plays. On first down, Forté had 16 carries for 51 yards, with a 3.2-yard average. On other downs he had 14 carries for 49 yards and a 3.5-yard average. He had just three really productive runs on first down (two eight-yarders and an 11-yarder) all game. Bilal Powell was no more effective on first down (two carries for just six yards), but he totaled four carries for 18 yards (a 4.5 average) over the whole game. I have no problem at all with pounding the ball on the ground if we're getting good results, and I don't care how old a running back is if he's getting the job done, but Forté is not getting the job done. Why are the Jets being so stubborn in feeding him the ball this much? And what does Powell have to do to get more touches - he looks far more explosive than Forté. Am I missing something here?
IMO this type of analysis is only good if you can compare to the rest of the league somehow. It doesn't sound good, but what does everyone else do? I also kind of disagree that running for 3 yards on 1st down is "poor". 2nd & 7 isn't a bad situation, neither is 3rd and 4 if you want to continue that into 2nd down for a 3 yard run. I would like to see more passes or play action on 1st down.
It was return to ground and pound because the quarterback (Geno) is not trusted. I think the coaches felt the Jets would win this game if they simply kept turnovers to a minimum. So it was an ultra conservative game plan. Boring and predictable, but the grind it out approach worked. Powell would have seen more carries but once Geno was injured he became the backup QB so they didn't want to risk losing him as well.
His name is Chan Gailey. He's our Offensive Coordinator who lately has become very offensive. He's extremely predictable. he'll either go run happy or pass happy. He'll pass on 3rd and 1, but run on 1st and 10. You may have noticed our RZ inefficiency lately. You may also have noticed most of the time we're running the ball into the pile over and over expecting a different result. Now with our return to FitzTragic, you'll see more of the Chan Gailey we've all come to our wits end over. No deep passes due to no arm strength. No deception, No imagination. Just stick to the plan and hope for the best. It should be enough to be Cleveland and LA, but it will bite us in the ass beyond the bottomfeeders.
Forte got it done against Baltimore. Should work out fine against some of these weaker opponents. When New England comes around he expecting the hard play action on first down.
we are predictable. trying to gain positive yards on 1st down and no faith in your QB leads to that. even 2-3 yards on 1st down is better then an incompletion or turnover
For the year we're about middle of the pack for run percentage on first down. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct We are almost last for avg yards per first down rush through. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-yards-per-first-down-attempt/2016/
Remember the old days when C-Mart would run it on 1st and 2nd down the entire game? Didn't work so well in the first quarter, but half way through the 3rd, those 3-yard runs would turn into 8 yard runs, and by the end of the game we had 150+ on the ground..... The Baltimore game wasn't quite like that--but it had that feel. Old football still works, it's just harder than new football.
I never heard of a running back who is pretty good being your back up QB Makes no sense...but oh wait these are the Jets
That's a really interesting, and disturbing, stat with the first down runs. It's like this guy comes up with an order of pass/run plays before the game and goes with it the entire game. The game in AZ it was pass, run, pass probably about 75 percent of the time. You could pretty much get up and grab a beer/take a piss before 2nd down because you knew all you were going to miss was a 2 yard run.
I think this gas more to do with our oline blocking poorly in the run game. For as good as they've been in pass pro, they've been equally as bad in run blocking.
