and speaking of the linebackers , don't forget Taiwan jones from last years draft , coaching staff is high on him , real solid LB core for years
Well I can only hope that Hack is not doing this 11 years into his career. I hope Fitz is not back on this team. I don't want to see underthrown bombs to Devin Smith and then hear how Devin is a bust. We need to move on from a journeyman QB and let the young guys grow.
Agreed, good points. I like the fact that Shell is related to Hall of Famer Art Shell. Plus everything I read about him sounds great, I think he will become an excellent RT for us. I also think Jarvis Harrison has a lot of potential; he was a developmental pick last year, you'll recall, but I thought he was the biggest steal outside of L. Williams in that draft.
Johnson does not suck, we've been spoiled at center the last 15 years or so with mawae and mangold, that's why u say that , Wesley Johnson is a good player
The problem is that by this time next year on average Shell will have a half of year of experience under his belt and half a year injured/on somebody else's camp roster/on Jet's roster but already seen as not a likely player for them. That's what 5th round picks do: they disappear at a high rate of frequency. I'm being generous in crediting Shell with a half year on the roster as a projected future starter. The odds are much more tilted the other way but I just wanted to emphasize the coin-flip nature of later round draft picks. You have to make those picks when you have them and find useful pieces at a reasonable rate but trading future assets to make more of them is buying into a declining market. Rounds 5, 6 and 7 are the ultimate crapshoot. You need to find good players who help the roster on a regular basis, probably one every draft out of the 3 picks, however there's no chance you're smart enough to point at a player and say "that's the one, he's going to work out". That's because the NFL has passed on all of these guys 4 times collectively and if the guy had any certainty in the pick it's already washed out by that time. So trading up into any round is weaker because you give up lottery tickets each time you do it. Trading up into the late stages of the draft is weaker for the same reason and because you're acquiring a guy that everybody has passed on multiple times the lottery tickets aspect is even higher. You're trading 2 random shots for 1 with almost no predictability on the pick you will actually make. Trading a future higher pick for a current lower pick is the ultimate gamble. You better be right on that one.
It's not about being spoiled, an all pro is exactly what teams need at Center and nothing less. Johnson is not all-pro, you can get away with average to good guard play, that does not fly with the LT and Center positions.
Mangold isn't getting any younger, though I think Johnson will be a good replacement. Carpenter is doing fine. Clady has health issues and I don't trust anyone else currently on the roster to play LT. Breno is meh. Winters is meh. I want to do better. That's three positions that we need to upgrade (unless Clady can prove he can stay healthy).
C at best Lee was ok but would have preferred OL or trade down Hack is a huge reach who I believe would have been available later Jenkins is solid--will be most productive member of this draft class Burrris--how many CBs do we need? Shell good pick if for no other reason we need OL Clady counts as 5th rounder Punter blah that is what free agents are for Peake good free agent Marshall could be steal
Peake is probably the Jets highest value pick. He did stay completely healthy this year. His injury concerns are arguably smaller than Milliner's and we took him in the first. I actually gave the first two picks an F initially, because I could not believe we passed on Lynch, and I thought that Hackenberg was the reach of reaches. But then I did a lot of research on Hackenberg and I realized he has a very good shot at being a franchise guy. He is in many ways the opposite of most high round QB prospects these days. He has a super high football IQ, actually Manning like in that regard maybe more. He has a rocket for an arm, and prototypical size (outside of hand size-though he does not seem to have any issues there), he has a quick release despite a little windup that can get faster, he is super tough, and is 21 years old. Unlike most prospects he is a pro style offense QB, and ran the complete NE offense as a true freshman rookie. He also played in the worst possible situation the last 2 years with a LT that supposedly could not even bench 250. Also, everyone on the Jets signed off including Patullo and Gailey. If you look at the stats, he is horrid. If you look at the player, he just looks like an elite QB. He was captain. I really think he might be the guy. And watching the press conference I think the Jets think he will win the competition and start this year if no Fitz. So, because of that my opinion on the first pick switches. Outside of a true elite pass rusher, a fast side to side ILB is probably the biggest need for the Jets. 1st round is sometimes dicey for picking MLB from a value standpoint, but I think Darron could be special. I also, think the Jets had a sublime 7th round, with a legitimate possibility for a #1 WR, and a terrific punter pick (made even better by also getting the best punter as UDFA) Jordan Jenkins is a day 1 starter. Only slight concern is if his production was because of people accounting or Floyd and freeing up JJ, but I have since heard that it might have been the opposite. Burris is a perfect fit for Bowles corner needs, and could become a year one starter. Criticisms of him seemed really minor that decent coaching can overcome quickly. Shell seems to be a 1-2 year project. Overall on paper I think it is an A, but it all comes down to Hackenberg. If he is the guy, A+++++, if not we might still have a decent draft overall.
UPDATE the NY Post and NY DN grade B USA Today C- SB Nation B- Bleacher Report C+ one of them called drafting Hackenburg "bizarre" have not checked NYTimes or PFF yet
Most QB's drafted in the 2nd round are long term backups. This is because teams have too much invested in them to move on and they showed enough in college to keep teams giving them a shot. Hackenberg is unique in that after his Freshman year he didn't show a lot of production in college. I suspect he will get at least one more shot as an NFL backup if he doesn't make it with the Jets, however they have enough invested in him that he's going to be with the team for most of his first contract even if he doesn't work out. That will limit his chances moving forward with other teams. Through the 2015 draft there are 15 QB's drafted in the 2nd round after pick 36 in the NFL draft since Peyton Manning was picked. 1 of them is a starter next year, that being Brock Osweiler. He's not starting for the team that drafted him. 2 other guys could still reasonably be seen as prospects to start in the NFL, those being Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo, emphasis on the prospect aspect at this point. 5 guys are long-term backups at this point some after starting a season or more, those being Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne and Jimmy Clausen. That's probably where Geno and Garoppolo are headed. 1 guy was a serviceable backup QB during his tenure but is now retired: Charlie Batch. 6 guys vanished based on talent issues, typically with a cup of coffee with somebody after their first team had finally cut the cord: Shaun King, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo (got many chances with a terrible Raiders team in decline), John Beck, Brian Brohm and Pat White. The area that Hackenberg was picked in is a total wasteland for starting QB's with staying power in the NFL. The last guy to get picked in that area who went on to have a long, illustrious career was Randall Cunningham in 1985. That's 29 years ago.
Are you suggesting that there is something significant about being drafted in the 2nd round that causes QB's to not become long term starters? It just seems like there is nothing significant or special about the second round to me. It's slightly interesting that the numbers don't look promising for 2nd round QB's, but aside from being slightly interesting it seems pretty worthless. I doubt there's anything to it.
NY Times says we will be judged on Hack pick in 2nd and those players we could not aquire by trade PFF we get a C- Media Pundit Average Rating of C lol
Russel Wilson, 12th pick 3rd round. Doing quite well. RG III, 2nd pick 1st round not so well. Not sure trends by round are all that meaningful.
There are too many hits in pics 32 to 36 and a wasteland afterwards too completely discount the theory. Picks 32 to 36 in the 2nd round since 1998: Drew Brees (pick 32 so the fact that the NFL only had 31 teams and the range should have been 32 to 35 is not a factor) Kevin Kolb Andy Dalton Colin Kaepernick Derek Carr That's ALL the QB's taken in the first 4 picks of the 2nd round since 1998. That's pretty convincing evidence that there's some real mojo still in those picks. Even if you take Brees out of the equation completely half the guys drafted in those 4 picks are starting and looking good and the jury is still out on Colin Kaepernick. Now look at the wasteland that happens after that in the second round. Nobody has started a full season and looked good. The only guy currently starting is Osweiler and Elway judged him not to be worth a mid-level franchise contract. It's ironic that I have felt like I could support all 3 of the Jets draft picks in this wasteland, those being Kellen Clemens, Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg, because I'm a numbers guy and the numbers say it's not worth the attempt. But here I am again in full support of the Hackenberg pick, trying to find anything that justifies it and discounting the things that say it was a bad pick. That's what being a Jet's fan (or fan of any team) is all about.
1 3rd round pick, of a guy who had natural disqualifiers but rose over them, does not make the theory invalid, it just makes him a talented outlier. How many Tom Brady's are going to get found in the 6th round? If I told you a 6th round QB had a 5% chance of turning into a franchise QB and so nobody should draft a 6th rounder expecting to get a franchise QB would you argue my assessment? Drafting a QB in the 3rd round and having him become a franchise QB is a 23-1 event. We know this because 23 QB's have been drafted in the 3rd round since Peyton Manning was drafted and 1 of them, Russell Wilson, has become a franchise QB.
In a sense, yes. Obviously you just take all the information available and try to project how you think a prospect will develop. That's a given. But there's a weird sort of faux finality in grading a draft the day after its completion for one thing. For another I don't think most analysts, much less message board posters, have enough information to make the grades given much more than pointless. Not trying to take anything away from posters who do a lot of research but we just dont have anywhere near the resources that teams making the picks do to be able to judge them so soon. Even then, there's a ton of variables that affect how a prospect will end up working out for a team. If it's done in good fun, I have nothing against it. But if one does it thinking their grades are actually "right", that's just foolishness.
Such a good point. I read some of the really angry stuff people write and I wonder why they're doing this to themselves. If you don't like the picks express your opinion and move on. Getting into long angry arguments about them is kind of useless. Even if you're right a few years down the road, well then you suffered the anger the whole way and the team sucked. Better to get behind the picks and hope it all works out. At least you didn't have to deal with the boil along the way. It's a game, enjoy it.
