No, I fully believe that any QB drafted after pick 36 is a long-odds crapshoot at best. That's what the numbers tell us when we look at them in the timeframe of the 7 round NFL draft, which is now about 22 years old. I'm also willing to concede that there is often a reason that a player falls out of that range and then is successful, sometimes wildly so at the NFL level. Russell Wilson had great college performance levels that were kind of masked by the fact that he moved around a lot at the college level, which is unusual for a starting QB. He was under-height by quite a bit and so he was disqualified as a QB, based on a widely used metric, on many team's draft boards. Even the team that took him, the Seahawks, passed on him twice before taking him. Then they had a truly open QB competition in camp, which is a very unusual event at the NFL level and he won it. All of those factors taken together explain why he was able to become a good NFL QB despite having the whole league pass on him twice and many teams three times. Tom Brady got to play QB for Michigan, between Brian Griese and Drew Henson, because Lloyd Carr really believed in honoring the promises he made to recruits when they got to their Junior year and because Drew Henson was a bit of an off-beat QB early in his Michigan career, violating a few team rules along the way and never quite getting into position to take the job from the less talented Brady when Brady was a Junior and he was a Freshman nor when Brady was a Senior and he was a Sophomore. Brady was a good QB but not a standout and he really only had a strong arm as his major selling point when he was done. His footwork was a bit slow and he didn't have any real escapability under pressure and he just didn't look like a franchise QB. The Brady who got the ball knocked out of his hands by the Raiders in the playoffs was very recognizable for a long-term Wolverine fan. That he got the strange favorable call that saved the day went a long way towards keeping him in the picture for the Pats. Everything since then has been the determination that was obvious to Michigan fans coupled with a very favorable system and his almost supernatural comprehension of that system. There really aren't very many great QB's between those two who have emerged after the 4th pick of the 2nd round in recent years. Some guys have had a few good years, but sustained excellence normally comes out of those 36 picks because everybody in the NFL is looking at QB's all the time and it's very unlikely for anybody who has a real chance to be a great QB to slip past the bad teams picking for the 2nd time in the draft. With Hackenberg if he succeeds the story is going to have to be all about Bill O'Brien's departure after his strong Freshman year and the arrival of a worse system and the recruitment of worse talent around him as the main factors in his decline at the college level. He'll be unusual because it's really unusual for a 5 star QB recruit to lose his head coach after his Freshman year and for the succeeding coach to completely change the system when he arrives. It's really unusual for a 5 star recruit at QB to see the talent on the offensive line just dive over the next few seasons. I'll admit that I'm a bit skeptical that the Jets can reclaim the Christian Hackenberg that showed up as a Freshman for Bill O'Brien, but he's a Jet now and I'll be rooting for him to make it. It would be a great story and it would be great for the Jets and the fans and it would put one data point in the 2nd round outside the first 4 picks as an unqualified success. It's also possible that Brock Osweiler will finally do that, however John Elway obviously didn't believe that was going to happen and I trust Elway on QB's.
I maintain that Hackenberg's problems are almost entirely mental. He is a pro specimen who has been looking at the pass rush rather than focusing on the secondary the last two years. Give him time to complete his throwing motion without fear of getting hammered 3 downs in a row in a pro style system, work with him to bring his comfortability back and you have a legit prospect. He has the football IQ, he can read defenses, he throws away the ball, he can step up in the pocket if it's not already collapsed, he's great on play action roll outs, he can change the play at the line, has GREAT arm strength, goes through his reads. My biggest criticism of pre-shellshocked Hackenberg is he puts too much juice on his throws sometimes, resulting in high deep balls and rockets to 5 yard check downs, sometimes he doesn't step into his throws with a pass rush coming at him.
Yeah, it's fine. I don't have strong feelings either way - I rarely do because the whole draft thing is such a crap shoot anyway. I'm just kind of confused when you appear to be so effusive in your defense of the pick and than say you don't like the guy. (And I appreciate the difference between that and hate, my bad for turning it.)
So I just watched the whole Gruden thing and I came away impressed. ESPECIALLY with his ability to read defenses. They just do not teach college QB's this...hell, it's Geno's biggest fatal flaw. I love it when he says at the beginning "we basically ran the Patriots offense." That charged me up....and him doing it at 18. I'm willing to give the kid a shot...I mean...look at his competition. He has the potential to step in and step OVER the QB dregs we have. Not only that but I respect the hell out of Gruden...and the fact that he thinks the kid should have gone in the 1st is good enough for me. Maybe he'll be our Myles Jack. ()
PFF just murders Hackenberg. https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...ve-a-draftable-grade-on-christian-hackenberg/
PFF is waaaayyyy to focused on minute numbers. THAT is a fact...trust me, I know. There's no "intelligence" in their writings...I hate that.
20 (51). New York Jets: Christian Hackenberg | Grade: D- The Jets have been looking for a quarterback and they’re taking the chance on Hackenberg. The tape has been horrible, and that includes his freshman year that everyone touts as his saving grace. He’s been one of the most inaccurate quarterbacks in college football for three straight years and his -12.1 overall grade ranked 41st in this draft class alone in 2015. The Jets are hoping that he can be a reclamation project, but he has to take monumental strides to become a viable NFL quarterback.
Please, stop making so much sense. The rabid fans that can't see past their noses and ignoring the massive BS that went on at Pen won't hear of it. They see what they want to see. Hack upper band is off the charts, a risk well worth taking. Also the comparison some are making to Sanchez is right down idiotic. I could have won behind that monster NFL ready OL and superb running game at USC. He didn't have to do shit put sand there and wait for someone to get open.
There are a lot of variables involved. He was drafted on potential and skill set. After Bill O Brien left, it's obvious the new coaching regime messed him up, especially after you watch the Gruden camp, you really start to understand why this kid struggled. You can't ask a top recruit, with great form, to change his fundamentals to what they prefer and expect the same results. They really messed with his head and it shows that this kid is willing to do whatever the coaching staff wants him to do, right or wrong because he wants to do what's best for his team. I'm skeptical, however, I'm very hopeful as well. I think having Chan as our OC only improves his success rate for the future. Drafting a QB until you find your guy, is smart business. I'm perfectly fine with the pick, especially if the reports of the Jets wanting this kid for months is in fact true and I believe that to be the case. He was BPA for them in round 2 and they got their guy. I can get behind that.
Gonna give the kid the benefit of the doubt as I do with all our rookies, as he has not thrown an Interception or Incompletion as a Jet. Lets hope the kid can learn behind Fitz and Gailey can help him turn into something.
Had Bill O'Brien stayed there through Hackenberg's college career, I definitely think the perception of him would be way different (and would probably have been a top 5-10 pick). You see the talent he showed in his freshman year. You don't just lose that overnight. The more I think about it, the more I think the Jets struck gold with him, and that he'll even start at some point this season.
YAY LETS FIRE OUR GM AFTER 1 SEASON!!! YAHHHHH LETS GO PROTEST AND GET HIM FIRED!!!! Get a grip people. Seriously half this fan base needs to see a doctor.
This pick surprised me. Hackenberg has a lot of tools that scouts love and has major potential. He has good size, a great arm, and understands the game well enough to call audibles and the pass protection sets as a freshman. His accuracy was below average, but it should improve as his footwork becomes more consistent, and he cleans up his throwing motion. Hopefully he hasn't been David Carr'd while at Penn St.
It was not for no apparent reason. He is one of the most cerebral QBs to come out in a while, has elite tools, prototypical size and literally ran the NE offense, checks and audibles and all at 18. And he is just 21. His performance sagged because of a crappy head coach and playing FBS football with Div II talent and the worst OL in football. As long as all the hits have not broken him, he could be a Top 5 QB in the NFL. He could also be terrible, but seems to be worth the risk
