The loss has soaked in, and at this point we need to look towards the offseason. In looking at some of the top defenses and specifically the top 10 pass defenses and top 10 sacking teams in the NFL last season, there seems to be some strong similarities among how these defenses get things done, despite the fact that they are constructed very differently. Being excellent against the run is a great thing until you can't stop a team on 3rd down because there is absolutely no pocket push without a blitz. Top 10 NFL sacking teams: Denver (3-4) New England (multiple front, 3-4) Pittsburgh (3-4) Kansas City (3-4) Houston (unique 3-4, moving Watt around) Carolina (4-3) Green Bay (3-4, multiple front w/ Clay Matthews at ILB) Minnesota (4-3) Cincinnati (4-3) Detroit (4-3) Despite all of these varying fronts, what remains the same? How do these teams generate pressure? Denver - edge rushers Von Miller, Demarcus Ware & Shaq Barrett New England - edge rushers Rob Ninkovich, Jamie Collins & ILB Donta Hightower Pittsburgh - The only team that really bucks the trend. Sacks all over the place, including from 3-4 defensive ends Cam Heyward & Stephen Tuitt (7 & 6.5 respectively). This is the only true 'blitzing' defense in the top 10 in sacks Kansas City - edge rushers Tamba Hali & Justin Houston Houston - moves Watt around the entire formation & edge rusher Whitney Mercilus Carolina - rotate pass rushers with primarily 4 man rush (starts w/ 3-technique Kawann Short in true 4-3) Green Bay - move Clay Matthews to edge in passing situations and rush with him and Julius Peppers Minnesota - true 4-3 w/ edge rusher Everson Griffin and rotating pass rushers (solid 3t Sharrif Floyd) Cincinnati - true 4-3 w/ 3-technique Geno Atkins & edge rusher Carlos Dunlap Detroit - true 4-3 w/ edge rushers Ansah, Devin Taylor & Jason Jones The one constant is that most of these teams rely on one of three types of players to generate most of their pressure. They have attacking edge rushers from the 3-4, attacking edge rushers from the 4-3, or a dominant 3-technique that lines up in the same spot nearly every play. Houston is unique in that Watt is single handedly the most dominant front 4 player in the league, so they do unique things with him. Pittsburgh is the only true blitz heavy team on this list. Green Bay and Minnesota both blitz, yes, but they can also consistently line up 5 guys and still get pressure. So that brings us back to the construction of the Jets. Our pass rush was non-existant vs. Buffalo and has routinely disappeared since Rex first arrived in 2009 & 2010 and his blitz packages were new and innovative. NFL teams seemed to have figured out how to handle the blitz a lot easier since then in using a dummy count to get a team to show who is coming and checking down to receiver runningbacks or quick hitting out routes or shallow crosses. We have this front 4 built with 3 3-4 defensive ends playing in the base formation AND obvious pass rushing situations at over 300 pounds. Leonard Williams ran his 40 in 4.97 seconds. Wilkerson ran his in 4.96. Richardson in 4.86. I rarely use 40 times as a barometer but it's the only statistic I can use to gauge how slow our pass rush is. They also all use similar techniques that a 3-4 defense end would use in attacking two offensive lineman and trying to blow through the middle of them or straight up blow up their guy. You can routinely see Wilkerson start to slow down after he doesn't beat his man and look to bat the pass down or try to see where the quarterback is going to slide so he can attack that area. This is smart for a player that knows that he is not going to beat his man, but this is often at the latter side of the play where the quarterback has already gone through his progression. None of them use their hands very well because they don't have the speed to blow around them after getting the offensive lineman's hands down. A similar comparison could be when the Knicks had Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. They all generally operate at the same points of the floor so there was no spacing. It's the same thing with these pass rushers, as there is absolutely no spacing among them, and quarterbacks often break contain. For everyone that wants us to keep Sheldon, Snacks, and Wilkerson, to go along with our talented first round pick in Leonard Williams? It's a losing formula if we try to retain all four for the long hall because there is no speed. Maybe we break the NFL defensive rushing yards allowed record if we keep them. It means absolutely nothing if we can't stop a team on 3rd down because all 4 of our defensive lineman are getting stonewalled. I fully expect that either Wilkerson or Richardson could dominate that 3 technique, perhaps with Leonard Williams on the tightend side defensive end of the formation. But we absolutely need a speed rusher somewhere along this front. Throw out the stats. We tied for 12th in sacks. That's slightly above average in comparison to the rest of the league. But does it really feel like that? Go watch the games. Our pass rush was slow and below average for a lot of the year, and especially in big time situations. Hopefully someone in the front office will figure this out. Thoughts?
I didn' read the whole post but I'm assuming you're saying the Jets need an OLB or two who can get pressure on the QB? That would be where the Jets edge rush would have to come from. If so I agree with this. The Jets have been missing a pass rushing OLB since they first transitioned to the 3-4 when Mangini took over.
Yes. That or we need to switch to a 4-3 move Wilk or S. Rich inside and switch the emphasis to finding 4-3 linebackers. That's extremely unlikely though.
I agree we need more effective edge rushers but if I can nitpick a bit, I don't think we put much of an emphasis on pressuring Tyrod - it seemed pretty obvious they were more concerned with keeping him in the pocket.
yeah i thought they were trying to spy and contain on some plays. what really frustrated me is that it didn't work either. we had Sheldon on the edge, and it felt like Taylor could beat him around the corner whenever he wanted. to the OP's point, i agree that edge pressure would help a ton. we can generate interior pressure, and we have a secondary that can hold the QB an extra second. add in some edge pressure, and that would make a big difference. i like when coaches mix up the defensive looks, but no need to dramatically change scheme.
I don't think there is much wrong with a defense that ranks 4th in the league. Sure there could be improvements but you are not going to be able to patch every hole. The main problem as I see it for this team is the offense. Yes, there was considerable improvement from last year, however, this is an offense that too often could not sustain drives. It's an offense that can maybe score 20 pts a game but then have to rely on the defense to hold the opposition to under that. Winning football games means more than playing good defense. You have to score points to win. I would have no problem going into next year with the same defense, if the offense could improve considerably. With a more powerful offense, the defense is not under constant pressure to keep the opponent off the scoreboard. The Jets defense is most effective when playing with a lead and least effective when they fall behind. Improvements on offense that I'd like to see are at QB and RB. As good as Fitz was this year, I don't think he's the guy that can win a SB. He is more of a game manager than a weapon. I'd like to see the Jets continue to look for that franchise QB. Also Ivory was good in some games, but was completely shut down in others. I'd like to see the Jets look for a more consistent RB. Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry are two RB's I would love to see drafted by the Jets in the first round. You win by scoring more than your opponents and these two guys are great runners with a nose for the end zone. It's time to put some No. 1 draft choices on offense for a change.
Yeah, I think our 3-4 lineman are so good in their roles that it doesn't make much sense to move to the 4-3 base at this point. We've just been really bad at finding an outside pass rusher.
I disagree with you big time. Not that this team couldn't use a dynamic edge rusher (everyone could) but that this defense has a fundamental problem. your comment "Being excellent against the run is a great thing until you can't stop a team on 3rd down because there is absolutely no pocket push without a blitz." is simply not true about THIS Jets team. They were one of the very best defenses in 2015 in the entire NFL on 3rd down. #3 to be exact behind Houston and KC http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/3rd-down-efficiency-against/2015/ some of the teams in your list: Detroit, Pittsburgh, were in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of 3rd down percentage. So just because they raked up sack numbers doesn't mean they were any good on 3rd down. Total team sack numbers are not indicative of a team's defense anyway. teams that are ahead a lot can rack up sack numbers because teams behind them are having to throw more (NE, Carolina). Teams that score quickly and play track meet games can have inflated numbers as well (Pittsburgh). but even if I did believe sack numbers are a good indicator of a team's prowess, second half of the season the Jets defense was one of the league leaders in sacks. sunday's buffalo game was the anomaly, not the story of the Jets defense in 2015 or even a part of any sizable trend. They just performed poorly on that day
The running game has a LOT to do with an oline that is getting absolutely no push more often than not, and definitely not against the better teams (or even Buffalo). When the running game sucks, more often than not, there is nowhere to run and the oline is getting handled. Fix the oline - fix the run. Fitz is the best QB this team has had since Pennington, Favre aside. You can win a lot of football games with a smart, serviceable, QB and receivers like Marshall and Decker. Just add a third option, for example Amaro. Put a good enough cast around a guy like Fitz and he can win a SB....ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Dilford? Fitz has thrown it downfield on more than a few occasions this year, sometimes well sometimes not so much, but it doesn't matter because the receivers can't catch the fucking ball (and I am talking about Smith, Tompkins, and Enunwa primarily.) On defense the Jets just need some more speed. Speed kills on defense and we have more than a few older guys who are good, but slow.
I dont think there needs to be any kind of scheme change going into next season. Just need some pass rush coming off the edge. Hopefully Mauldin proves to be the real deal, because he can definitely get after the QB.
Stats are one thing but in watching the games do you think the 3rd down efficiency by this defense is more a product of good secondary play coupled with heavy blitzes? We haven't had a consistent pass rush with 4-5 men rushing all year and realistically in a long time. The more successful defenses in this league can rush 4 or 5 and get pressure. Look at the Oakland game, both Buffalo games, the Houston game, even to some extent in some of the wins on the 5 game win streak. I was pulling my hair out at clean pockets some of these passers had when we didn't blitz.
Another thing that has rarely been addressed is our inside linebackers. When we had Bart Scott, Harris was the guy who took the blocks so that Bart could make plays. Demario Davis was supposed to be that guy and he hasn't. I think our D would be that much better on running plays and short routes in the middle if we can get someone who can roam the field and be that playmaker like Scott was.
Dilfer also had a defense that had 4 regular season shutouts, held opponents under 10 points 9 times, and held every playoff opponent to 10 points or less... Keeping Fitzpatrick is definitely the correct move but he's going to struggle if he has to carry a team against a tougher schedule next year like he did at points this year.
Nagle beat me to it in commenting on your OP. Your OP did not acknowledge that the Jets defenders were #3 in the league on 3rd down. That is an awesome number. Still it does not mean that opponents did not, from time to time, as we all know, convert. And in some games more than others. But that's true of most everyone. I think rather than say the D has a fundamental problem in the way it's constructed, you could have merely said that the Jets could use better edge pass rushing. But that is not a fundamental flaw. Putting stats aside, and this goes back to previous years, it certainly does seem to this fan that in certain situations the Jets can be frustrating because they do not get off the field on 3rd down. Perhaps the stats then are slightly misleading, at least in this respect. The Jets were slightly better overall, season long, at rush D than pass D. 3rd in the league for the former, based on ypc, and 7th in ypa. So maybe that overall 3rd ranking in 3rd down D was more about stopping running plays, or not allowing short yardage attempts on 3rd because the opponent had not gained much on the ground on first and second down. I think there is something to that. Despite the overall number, the Jets D did not look like a top D defending pass attempts on 3rd down. Not because they sucked, but because compared to the run D it was worse. A related stat is total sacks. Again, at 12th place just about the one third mark. But not anywhere near #3. So, this was stat wise a #3 D, one that as such does not have a FUNDAMENTAL problem. But one that does play worse than that on 3rd down passing attempts, and does not put such great pressure on the opponent's Qb. I appreciate the work you put into your OP, but I think Nagle tends to have the overall better point here.
Buffalo game singular, the first game the defense was outstanding, but the Oakland, Houston and Buffalo II game are games where it appeared they struggled to disrupt the QB on the front or back end. -- - but that was only 3 of 16 games! They were a tremendous defense all year on 3rd downs and getting the ball back to the offense in general. It could be simply because of the play of the secondary and blitzing- but honestly who cares? they obviously aren't having an issue on that side of the ball in comparison to everyone else. They were great on 3rd down, historically great at stopping the run, very good at keeping points off the board etc. The 2015 Jets defense was excellent. Who cares how they did it also- they have a young edge rusher that got increasingly better down the stretch as well in Mauldin. If he can get better at the point of attack, improving in the running game, he will replace Pace full time and they might already have the solution in house to your proposed problem
First, very good post but I respectfully disagree with most of it. Any team that declares they are a run first team, as the Jets have done, is going to have to face defenses that are stacked to stop the run. I don't think the O-line was so bad in the run game (10th overall), however, the Jets lacked an RB breakaway threat. Any defense facing the Jets isn't going to concern itself with RB's like Ivory if he breaks a long run once in a while because he is not likely to score. What the Jets need is a RB with more consistent production and one with the potential to score from any point on the field. Saying Fitz is the best QB since Pennington is like saying Obama is the best President since George Bush. Very low bar. Trent Dilfer played on a team with a shut down defense. Jets defense is good, not shut down. Besides, that was a different era, since 2001 no team has won a SB without a top QB leading them. Tompkins and Enunwa are not top draft picks, so it's unrealistic to expect them to come up with big plays when it counts. Smith was definitely a disappointment, but many first year WR's struggle before figuring it out. Agree with you about Amaro. I think he can be a real weapon in the passing game. Also, agree the defense needs to get faster. Bowles said the same thing yesterday. However, between the defense and the offense, I think the offense needs a lot more work.
It's because the Jets been operating on that pressure that frustrates Brady...so he can't step up in the pocket. But this man's NFL you need edge rushers. Mauldin maybe one of them, we will see. They need to get at least 2 more for next year....ones that can use their speed and force up in the pocket to the guys like Wilkerson and Sheldon, etc. Otherwise you've been seeing the Jets trying to push the interior pocket back into the face of the QB...it's the way to combat the lack of edge rushing guys
Well my point is moving forward how they're going to continue to do it. Are we going to pour a ton of money into these 3-4 ends and pray that Bowles' blitzing scheme doesn't get stale and predictable in a couple years? I understand that I'm over thinking the 3rd down play though. I just think trying to keep the 3 hogs up front vs. Seeking an elite pass rusher will be a huge mistake if they choose to do that. We're in a shit position trade value wise though as Wilk broke his leg and Sheldon will have back to back seasons with 4 game suspensions and little pass rushing productivity this year.
Wilk and Sheldon were already acclimated in the 4-3 defense in college. Wilk played in both the 4-3 and the 3-4 in college. Sheldon the 4-3. The Jets on passing downs ran a 4 man front a lot already. If the Jets don't resign Snacks, they should deploy the 4-3 and let Wilk and Sheldon play on the inside as DTs, with Maudlin / Leonard Williams as a LE / RE. I think the Jets will be even better if they let Wilk and Sheldon play on the inside. More sacks potentially, and you are in a sense offsetting the loss of Snacks. Finding the linebackers will be tough, but our linebackers ALREADY suck anyway for the 3-4. 3-4 for the Jets IMO is becoming useless.
