Free Agency Winners and Losers

This year we had to overpay for free agents.

After we get to the playoffs this year free agents will want to play here next year.

 

NFL FREE AGENT WINNERS AND LOSERS

Week 1 of the open market leads to wild overspending for many, improvement for some

March 13, 2015, 11:15 am
Corey Griffin, NBC Sports

Free agency is far from a sure thing and the general rule is winning in March doesn’t equate to wins in January. Last spring, most experts had the Buccaneers and Broncos sharing the Free Agent Lombardi. This year, the Bucs will pick first overall and just cut Michael Johnson, their prize 2014 addition, while the Broncos were washed out of their own building by a Colts team that lost by 38 points in the AFC Championship Game.

With that said, improvements in March and April can ultimately lead to success, if the players added fit the scheme and the cost isn’t too prohibitive against the salary cap. As an example, the Patriots wouldn’t have won the Super Bowl without cornerback Darrelle Revis, while the Seahawks wouldn’t have gotten back to the big game without re-signing Michael Bennett.

So, before we judge the winners and the losers from the first week of the open market, there are a few, very simple ground rules that must be set.

1. Did any additions overcome any potential losses?
2. Did said additions prove ultimately harmful to the salary cap either immediately or in the near future?
3. Are you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and/or Washington Redskins?

One of these winners will undoubtedly end up this year’s Bucs or Broncos, but for now, they can all score this offseason in the “W” column.

(All salary cap numbers courtesy of OvertheCap.com.)

WINNERS

Jets – The Jets’ starting secondary on Monday consisted of Darrin Walls, an injured Dee Milliner, Calvin Pryor and Antonio Allen. After Thursday night, Milliner is the fourth cornerback behind free agent signings Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine, and Pryor will play alongside Marcus Gilchrist. New general manager Mike Maccagnan paid handsomely (over $130 million combined for the foursome) to upgrade the team’s second-weakest unit, but new coach Todd Bowles needs man corners for his scheme to succeed. Maccagnan also traded a fifth-round pick for Brandon Marshall, immediately the franchise’s most talented wideout since Keyshawn Johnson.

Cardinals – Arizona general manager Steve Keim is a smart man. Faced with a quarterback in Carson Palmer who tore an ACL for the second time last season, Keim signed top free agent guard Mike Iupati to boost the run game. Keim also signed veterans linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and LaMarr Woodley to low-cost deals and defensive lineman Corey Peters to help replace released mainstay Darnell Dockett.

Seahawks – On the surface, one could argue the Seahawks failed both the first and the second rules of this list, but the addition of Jimmy Graham to an offense in desperate need of a physical red zone threat overcomes that. Yes, Seattle further complicated their salary cap going forward, but the Seahawks reportedly planned to target tight end Jordan Cameron, who will make roughly $2 million less than Graham each of the next two years.

Randall Cobb – Cobb reportedly was seeking between $9 and $12 million a year. He settled for $10 million per season to stay with the Packers and catch passes from Aaron Rodgers for the next four seasons. And by the end of that contract, Cobb will still only be 28, plenty young enough to get another megadeal after pumping his numbers in the NFL’s best offense.

Blake Bortles – The Jags did the best thing they could for a young quarterback. They invested in him by investing in the pieces around him. Jacksonville added tight end Julius Thomas, right tackle Jeremy Parnell and defensive tackle Jared Odrick, all quality players who will help make the Jaguars a competent and competitive team next season. The Jags overpaid all three players, but that’s the cost of doing business in Jacksonville, and they have the money to burn.

Agents – NFL teams spent over $1 billion collectively in in the first few days of free agency. Those commission checks are going to have a lot of zeroes.

LOSERS

Giants – The Giants gave out over $55 million to five players in the first few hours Tuesday and none of them are guaranteed to start. They gave Dwyane Harris, an average kick returner in a league openly trying to negate kick returns, $17.1 million ($7.1M guaranteed) over five years. For the second straight year, GM Jerry Reese overpaid average players en masse in hopes of filling holes cause by a half-decade of poor drafts.

Ravens – A tight salary cap situation forced the Ravens to trade defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who will still counts $7.5 million against their cap, to the Lions for a pair of mid-round picks. It also kept the Ravens from retaining wideout Torrey Smith and linebacker Pernell McPhee, with no suitable replacements for either currently on the roster. The Ravens should have 10 picks in April’s draft after compensatory picks are awarded and Ozzie Newsome is one of the game’s best GMs, but Newsome has some work to do.

49ers – Franchise cornerstone Patrick Willis suddenly retired this week and eternally underrated defensive end Justin Smith is expected to follow in his footsteps. The 49ers are also primed to lose their best defensive back, Chris Culliver, and GM Trent Baalke woefully overpaid aforementioned former Ravens wideout Torrey Smith. The Niners have young players capable of replacing Willis, Smith and Frank Gore, but that’s a lot of talent and production out the door in a one-week span.

Saints – New Orleans went all-in last year knowing a salary cap bloodletting was likely around the corner. This year, the cap-strapped Saints stunningly traded Graham for Max Unger and a first-round pick, were forced to cut Pierre Thomas and Curtis Lofton and shipped out guard Ben Grubbs, in addition to multiple restructurings that will eventually come home to roost down the road. The only winner in this deal is Mark Ingram, who figures to see the majority of the offense run through his capable hands next season.

Terrance Knighton – Knighton was supposed to get the free agent payday of his dreams, with the Raiders and new coach Jack Del Rio reportedly primed to unload some of their hefty cap space on Knighton. But Oakland “low-balled” Knighton according to the former Denver Bronco and he had to settle for a one-year, $4 million deal with Washington amid a report that the man nicknamed “Pot Roast” came into the free agency period out of shape.

AND THEN THERE’S CHIP KELLY

On Tuesday afternoon, Kelly and the Eagles were on plenty of “winners” lists. By Wednesday morning, many flipped them to losers after the full compensation of the Sam Bradford-Nick Foles trade came to light.

While this offseason will ultimately be judged by the outcome of that deal, there’s plenty of reasons to like what the Eagles did in the last week. They essentially flipped LeSean McCoy for DeMarco Murray and linebacker Kiko Alonso, and saved an additional $1 million in salary cap space. Murray has health concerns, but they paid a premium to insure him with talented, but also fragile Ryan Mathews. Combined with Darren Sproles, that’s a uniquely talented trio that can threaten defenses in a number of ways. Also, the addition of Alonso and re-signing of Brandon Graham gives Philly one of the fastest and most athletic linebacking corps in football, increasingly important in an era of hurry-up offenses and underneath passing.

On the flip side, the Eagles overpaid like crazy for cornerback Byron Maxwell, who was the fifth cornerback in Seattle 18 months ago. It’s extremely unlikely Maxwell ever lives up to his six-year, $63 million contract, but as a physical, man-press corner he fits what the Eagles want from their corners – as does budget signing Walter Thurmond, another former Seattle cornerback.

Ultimately, this offseason will be judged by the outcome of the Bradford deal. If Bradford stays healthy, he doesn’t have to do all that much to improve on the quarterback play the Eagles got last season (while winning 10 games). Mark Sanchez and Foles were graded 27th and 25th, respectively, by ProFootballFocus and both finished with double-digit interceptions despite each starting only eight games. No, Bradford won’t have Jeremy Maclin at his disposal, but Kansas City paid him No. 1 wideout money despite 2014 being Maclin’s only 1,000-yard receiving season. The offense as it’s set up currently is built to Bradford’s strengths – a series of underneath options who operate best over the middle and in the red zone.

If Kelly pulls this off, he’ll have earned his genius title. If he doesn’t, he’ll get paid even more money by some power-5 college program with the same amount of control. No matter what happens, he wins.

Corey Griffin is an editor for NBCSports.com. Follow him on Twitte

 

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