Not necessarily. As the draft has demonstrated countless times, no two GMs seem to rate players exactly the same.
I don't think you can say he compares favorably to Ben so you take him and don't look back. He's a completely different guy. Ben is a load. Mariota is a ballerina by comparison. Much skinnier, much more athletic and mobile, a lot less physical. _
Winston is much more comparable to Big Ben than Mariota. I can't even tell you how many times announcers said that Winston reminds them of Big Ben. Winston escapes sacks just like Ben, he is mobile enough to move around and pick up a first down and takes more than more defender to take him down.
Simply based on his production. He scored a minimum of 2 TDs in each game this year... It seemed that on any particular drive he could score. His football IQ, toughness and athletic ability was exceptional. I honestly can't remember a QB from the PAC 12 not named Luck or Rodgers that dominated the way he did this year.
This is what has to worry NFL teams about Mariota. He's not used to fitting balls in or throwing balls before they break off their routes. He's generally used to throwing to open receivers coupled with tons of screens and pick plays. That's not to say he doesn't have the skill set or the head on his shoulder because he does and he most likely can be successful. It's just not really a slam dunk pick like some quarterbacks of the past have seemingly been. That being said, if he's there this team has to take him assuming Winston's gone or they like him more than Winston. Hopefully the franchise does right by him and sits him for a year if they deem he's not ready in OTA's and training camp.
Could someone list the "slam dunk" QB picks in the past 10 years? I'm thinking Luck and hmmm…crickets. In the 10 years prior to that definitely Peyton Manning and ah…crickets. In the 10 years prior to that maybe Troy Aikman and dunno…more crickets? 10 years prior that, of course, John Elway and...you guessed it crickets. The "slam dunk" QB is a Halley's Comet of sorts. The comparison should really be reserved for those rare years, every 10 to 15 years or so, when a once in a generation QB prospect sits at the top of the draft. In the "normal" years like this one it shouldn't even be brought up as every QB will have something that worry NFL teams. Nothing against you but I'm really getting tired of the he is not a "slam dunk"/Luck type narrative. It's like criticizing a NBA draft prospect for not being LeBron. Note in 2006 we were in position to draft Jay Cutler, a prospect who could fit balls in to the tightest of windows. As a fan I was much more worried about the possibility of drafting him than I will ever be about drafting Mariota specifically because of "…[Mariota's]...skill set [and] the head on his shoulder".
I have to believe to stars will align for us and have MM fall into our laps at 6. I mean come on Lord, IT'S TIME!
This is hard to objectively classify because Oregon's offense is so prolific and has been for more than a decade now. Mariota may be just the best QB to run that offense, which is a powerhouse in terms of numbers produced. This is what people were selling during the season: Mariota has total command of the Duck's offense. To give some perspective you have to look at all the big numbers QB's have produced recently. This is the list of all QB's to average 10+ yards per pass attempt at the NCAA level since 1991: 1991 - Ty Detmer (BYU) 1992 - nobody 1993 - nobody 1994 - Kerry Collins (PSU) 1995 - Danny Wuerffel (Florida) 1996 - Danny Wuerffel (Florida), Steve Sarkisian (BYU) 1997 - Cade McNown (UCLA) 1998 - Akili Smith (Oregon) 1999 - Michael Vick (VT), Joe Hamilton (GT) 2000 - nobody 2001 - nobody 2002 - Michael Dinwiddie (Boise State) 2003 - nobody 2004 - Stefan Lefors (Louisville), Jason Campbell (Auburn) 2005 - Rudy Carpenter (ASU) 2006 - nobody 2007 - nobody 2008 - David Johnson (Tulsa) 2009 - nobody 2010 - Cam Newton (Auburn), Kellen Moore (Boise State) 2011 - Robert Griffin III (Baylor), Russell Wilson (Wisconsin) 2012 - Aaron Murray (Georgia) 2013 - Jameis Winston (FSU), Bryce Petty (Baylor), Zach Mettenberger (LSU) 2014 - Marcus Mariota (Oregon) The thing that is abundantly clear on that list is that most of the QB's there were not NFL caliber. They were products of the system. This is clear due to the fact that schools show up over and over again on the list. Akili Smith is on there from Oregon before Mariota. BYU, Florida, Boise State, Auburn, Baylor, etc. Lots of double hits indicating the team runs an offense that is explosive and tends to get their QB's good numbers. This doesn't mean that Mariota is not a great QB, just that we need to take his accomplishments and frame them correctly in order to figure out what they mean. He had the great season that he had statistically last year because he plays in the Oregon Ducks offense and he has mastered it. That's true also for virtually everybody on that list above. Wisconsin, btw, does not run a funky option spread offense. Russell Wilson being on that list is an eye-opener. Same for Jameis Winston. Somebody needs to take a closer look at Aaron Murray but I'd have him on my short list of under-appreciated prospects at this point.
That's an interesting list only from the standpoint that it points out YPA is a statistic that doesn't translate to the NFL very well. Your analysis, at least in terms of this list, is an unfair slight on Mariota though. Oregon certainly does not run anything close to the offense they ran in 1998 with Akili Smith, lumping Mariota with him as a "system" slight is really unfair. I know you are only partially saying it but it's like partially saying Colin Kaepernick is overrated because he plays in the same system/organization that Jerry Rice & Montana played in. That would be a really unfair statement that no one would make but its close to your Mariota/Akili Smith one here. It's a good list though in that it makes you realize YPA, which is a great stat to evaluate QBs in the NFL, doesn't translate from level to level. As most of those guys with tremendous YPA in college suck in the NFL. It also makes you think about the defense (or lack thereof) that exists in the college game now as that's a significant surge of QBs reaching that level of YPA in recent years compared to most.
Perhaps I should've worded in differently than slam dunk prospect so as to not offend you but there have been quarterback prospects with less question marks in terms of being labeled as a system passer or all the worries about being successful in the pocket, having NFL accuracy and playing from under center. Those factors give him the boom or bust rating by many people which is what makes him less desirable. As I stated we have to take a quarterback in this draft. If he's there we take him because you're never going to find one without trying to find out.
Please define "boom or bust" in the context you are using it. I ask because many people, myself included, see Mariota's floor as Alex Smith; would that be a bust? If Mariota does not develop any further, the team that drafts him still got a high character, hard working, super athletic QB that will make smart decisions on and off the field. If Winston doesn't mature, the team that drafts him may find themselves SOL w/o a QB. I totally understand and agree with the philosophy of taking the more pro ready QB first but let's not kid ourselves the true boom or bust QB in this draft is Winston. I wouldn't be surprised if he became the next John Elway or JaMarcus Russell; it really could go either way. If NY, I'd lean more towards the latter.
It's interesting that many people, including yourself are using his floor as Alex Smith. My question to you is which Alex Smith is that exactly, and in what fashion? Do you consider him to have Alex Smith like seasons or do you consider him to have similar traits? Because if his floor is Alex Smith then he turns into the type of guy that needs to be in the perfect situation to succeed. Like in San Francisco where he had a top flight running game and defense, or in Kansas City (not a perfect situation) with a top notch offensive head coach who encourages him to throw screens to a playmaker like Jamaal Charles all day. I suppose that wouldn't be a bust, but it's basically like saying his floor is a quarterback that can't win you games but won't lose them either. You take your pick on whether that's considered to be an overly successful draft pick. My boom or bust is Mariota having RGIII year 2 type seasons for a lot of his career or he can play like Kaepernick did the majority of his first 16 games starting. I don't think he'll ever be a great, elite pocket passer but I think he can learn to read a defense a lot better than Kaepernick can and have that type of effect (the good Kaep) on the game.
One thing that I think should not be overlooked is that he is pretty much universally described as smart which is an invaluable trait to have as a qb. Obviously you need much more than smarts to be successful (didn't Fitzpatrick go to Harvard) but you can't teach smarts, nor can you teach athleticism for that matter. He has the foundation to be a very successful qb - whether he becomes that guy is another matter. I hope he does and I hope he does so as a Jet.
That list is for 1 stat? Granted a good stat but not the tale of the tape by any means! Mariota is going to be great in particular offenses(Spread), good in others(Run/PA) and even decent in others(WC). In Chan's offence he has a chance to be great as long as we get a quick RB (Spiller) to stretch the field. I don't see how the Jets as a franchise don't pick him or even move up for him (Unless Tampa has their hearts set on him and we are fckd)
I don't think that Philly will mortgage their future to jump ahead of the Jets to draft Mariotta. More and more I think that Marcus will be our 6th pick. I think the only way we get screwed is if Snyder decides to grab him at 5 or trade with someone like the Rams who take him. I can't see Tennessee or Jacksonville taking a QB in the top 10 two years in a row, and the Raiders are happy with their QB. The Redskins are the wildcard here.
