I still haven't heard a plausible explanation for how the Pats are so far off the chart on that graph. Must be some secret Belichikennugget brilliant hypnotism technique that his players forget once they go to other teams.
"What happens in new England, stays in New England. It'd be a shame if something were to happen to your family."
So it could just be a coincidence/getting players who don't have problems with ball security. While I would LOVE to pile onto the Patriots, I don't think I can make the jump from deflated footballs to this. It is funny how the law firm had 0 fumbles in NE and then he goes to CIN and fumbles what 5 times in the same amount of carries? I just cannot make the logical leap of they deflated balls for 1-2 games, to doing it for years, to it leading to less fumbles. The problem for the Pats is many people are making this leap. EDIT: Also, what's the phrase, it's very probable something improbable will happen?
Yeah one would have thought that Law Firm would remember the trick that he learned those 4 years in NE and brought it to him in Cincinnati.
Definitely evidence that the deflating has been going on for a long time and that there is a direct advantage. Is the entire difference based on deflating? I doubt it, I'm sure coaching, the players carrying the ball and play selection has something to do with it as well but that doesn't explain away that giant gulf between them and the next closest team. Interestingly it seems that the drop in fumbles seems to co-relate to around the time they were caught for Spy Gate. So, basically, one form of cheating was taken away from them and they knew they were going to be watched for that carefully so they had to find a new way to gain an edge. This combined with Brady being the figurehead for petitioning the league for teams to bring their own balls...I mean, it all adds up pretty nicely.
Whatever happened to statjeff? He's probably the smartest poster we've ever had on here, and he'd explain this in a way even morons who root for the Patriots would understand. It takes a team like the Jets four seasons to win as many games as the Patriots usually do in one. The stats all across the board are going to look very funny/damning under those circumstances.
For somebody that stayed in the other thread that he wasn't giving his resumé, you sure are giving your resumé. Some random guy on a message board saying he played and coached doesn't trump professional football player opinion anywhere.
Softer footballs are easier to grip, control, and secure so they would surely be less likely to fumble less in anyone's hands Try running cat and mouse drills holding coffee can vs a pillow 100 times Which has a better chance of being slapped away from RB grip?
But there's THIS ... "Additionally, according to Stats, LLC, the six players who have played extensively for the Patriots and other teams in this span all fumbled far less frequently wearing the New England uniform. Including recovered fumbles, Danny Amendola, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker, Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount have lost the ball eight times in 1,482 touches for the Patriots since 2010, or once every 185.3 times. For their other teams, they fumbled 22 times in 1,701 touches (once every 77.3)" Very strange, indeed. But I'm sure it's just some crazy coincidence. I completely trust the Patriots. They would never cheat.
"Including recovered fumbles" lol as if that has ANYTHING to do with the ball or the team, unless you're implying that a ball underinflated by 1 PSI is more likely to bounce to the color of the uniform of the player who fumbled it. What a crock of shit. The only thing strange is that you're buying it for your purposes. It's a weird day when the Dolphins fans on this forum have become the biggest voices of reason.
I don't have any "purposes". I'm looking at the numbers. You don't find it odd that those players fumbled at far less than half their rate? Ok. I find it very odd. And the Pats just happen to be the team that's being accused of using a ball that's easier to grip ... actually, not accused -- caught. Quite a coincidence ... But maybe they just got hit harder when they played for other teams. Anything is possible.
Disagree...it's one of the reasons Rozelle banned "Stick-um" in the 1980's after Lester Hayes popularized it. A hard football is tougher to catch AND grip. How many of us in a game of flag football would ever lose a NERF football as opposed to a regular one ??
Actually accused, not caught. Or did the NFL finish their investigation? Must have missed it. BJGE didn't fumble in college either. With the Pats he ran 3 yards down the middle and was mostly a fake for playaction passing. Pats have had one player with fumble issues in the recent years and he's on the injured list. Ridley actually fumbles quite often, but always gets yanked when he does so. Lets see which one is more likely: NE becoming a passing team with Moss in 2007, something they have been ever since, or a 1 psi difference on the ball. Tough call, I know. And of course coaching has nothing to do with it. Or the 72% winning percentage since spygate. Good teams always fumble a ton....
You guys really need to do your research before spouting off, Benjarvus Green Ellis fumbled 10 times in college, then never fumbled with the Pats and then fumbled 5 times in 2 years with the Bengals.
Where do I start? First --- sorry, but not accused ... CAUGHT ... Or did they NOT use those footballs in the game and get caught? Yes, you did miss something. Read what I wrote. Next --- BJGE did fumble in college. See post above. And he also fumbled with Cincy. But not with the Pats. Sure --- nothing there to raise an eyebrow. Lastly ---- stop concentrating on one player. The study I cited, named a collection of players who played for the Pats and other teams. They fumbled only once every 185 touches with NE, but once every 77 touches with their other teams ... Way more than twice as often. And this was tested over 1,700 touches. Hardly a small sample. Again --- nothing strange at all, right? I'll wait for somebody to give me similar examples of this happening with other teams. Until then, I'll continue to find it very unusual. Everything points to the Patriots deliberately taking the air out of those footballs to gain an advantage. Why do you suppose someone told the officials to check on them? A wild guess? Obviously people around the league smelled a rat or they never would have been caught. The footballs were tested to a certain specification, given to the Pats, and then somehow slipped below specification. Want to explain to me how that happened?
This assessment is spot on. It will also be verified next year when the Patriots will be using the same ball as everyone else once the NFL Competition committee changes the procedures. We will be able to see exactly the impact that a fully inflated ball has for the Patriots for an entire season. And of course the Patriots fumbles will increase. Remember the key statistic here is not fumbles lost as a recovery is a byproduct of luck and that has been studied multiple times by others (PFF.com has done some articles on the luck factor for fumble recoveries). For me this study seals it. Of course, now imagine how many saved fumbles the Patriots have had over the years and the impact on close games... Jets lost by 1 and 2 points this year. Anyone think that a Pats fumble would have made a difference?
Green Ellis, 4 seasons with the Patriots 0 fumbles in 510 carries. Goes to the Bengals 5 fumbles in 498 carries. He's not the only one with similar stats.
I'm sure the NFL could afford to conduct some scientific studies into the effect of -2 psi on fumbling rates. But in general it is easier to grip the same object when its volume and surface area go down. It is easier to palm one of those mini basketballs than it is an NBA Wilson. I don't think that's debatable. If you want to argue that 2 psi is negligible, if the football started at 12.5 and went down by 2 psi that is like a 16% difference. The same players who fumbled once every 185 times playing for NE after 2006, when they played for other teams fumbled once every 77 times. So it can't really be argued that those players just happen to be more skilled at ball security.
Belichick has ways of dealing with players that fumble and at practices he has very embarrassing ways of correcting or discouraging this malady. If your worth keeping, you'll be dealt with, if not...your gone!
