Let's break this down... DEFENSE Our D line is excellent. Among the best in the league. Our Secondary is poor to terrible. Among the worst in the league. OFFENSE Our run-game is good to great. Among the best in the league. Our pass game is poor to below average. Among the worst in the league. WHAT THIS MEANS Our defense will never be elite again until we can shore up the secondary. We need adequate play here to allow the line to thrive. This is not going to happen this year. The wide discrepancy between the front and back of our defense means we are very see-saw team. Some games we will dominate, others we will give up 30+ points. Our run game will suffer to produce what it's capable of because teams will dare us to throw. We won't be able to take much advantage of this because we are poor to average at best in passing the ball. WHY The answer to our secondary woes are obvious and have been discussed to death already; CB1 and Safeties are inexperienced and we have no CB2. This years worth of experience plus adding one or two CB2's should fix this problem. Our Linebacker corp is mediocre now but we have some solid young players and some promising prospects already that should step in and elevate our linebacking to solid as they grow into and mature in their roles On offense we are still very far away from a top of the league unit. Considering we were historically bad last year, being only below average this year would actually be a great improvement. Our O line is a huge area of concern going forward. That said, we have a fatal (and eternal) problem holding us back which is the QB. Geno is much better than last year but he is still a bad QB. Last year he was god-awful. This year he is only bad. Last year our receiving corp was god-awful. This year it's only bad. Many of us are optimistic based on the first two games. Weeks 1-4 we face flawed defenses. These are the weakest defenses we face all year. We are in for some rough seas ahead. From week 5 on we will play against a solid defense almost every week. WHAT TO LOOK FOR The main thing on D is Milliner staying healthy and Pryor developing into his role. We should see improvement in our young secondary as the season continues and be primed to field a complete top tier Defense next year. On offense everything hinges on Geno. Look for him to make improvements reading defenses and going through his progressions to find the open man. If he does not show improvement in these facets of the game then we must move on as a franchise. His inability to run the offense from under center is a huge hindrance. He has a strong arm but he's not particularly accurate, the fact that running the ball is his go-to move in the redzone is telling. A team cannot consistently win if it's QB cannot do these things.
I'd hesitate before letting team defense rankings decide that the running game is good to great. I think we have the backs to be good to great, but you still need the blocking, playcalling and sellability of the passing game to have an efficient running game. The run ability is crippled by the fact that an absurdly large number of runs are out of the shotgun or pistol, which gives the defense more time and better angles and vision to defend the run. Our rushing stats are padded a lot by Geno's scrambles, too. If the offense was a spread instead of a WCO (with a handful of college formations thrown in for trickery) there would be a foundation on which to build the running game. But whenever the defense sees Geno under center, they stack the box because they know without a doubt that it's a run.
If teams are stacking the box when Geno is under center as you say, MM may want to consider flipping that tendency on it's head and do a lot more play action from that look. The Eagles, for example, run mostly play action plays in the handful times a game they have Foles line up under center.
Question: Would it work if they had Geno start off under center, drop back into the shotgun, pause for 1 second (so it's not a false start,) and then call for the snap while the defense is adjusting? (And vice versa?) Geno could quickly drop back into the 'gun or rush under center in under 1 second, plus that 1 second pause... I feel like that's not always going to be enough time for the defense to react, get to and get set in their new spots, and make the mental adjustment ("Ok, I'm doing this, not that.") I feel like sometimes guys would be out of position on defense, or still moving / not focusing properly because their attention is diverted. I'm not sure if what I'm suggesting is smart and creative, or really stupid for some obvious reason that I don't understand.
I agree completely. But I have seen Geno take passing snaps from under center probably 40 times in his professional career. I can't be sure of it, but I think they were mostly unsuccessful. The preseason goal line touchdown (Giants?) was a successful PA pass to Amaro from under center, mainly because the defense had totally sold out on the run. Maybe they're saving it for the Patriots? Maybe his footwork sucks when he drops back? Maybe he's too concerned about his dropback steps to go through progressions? I'm not in position to answer why they aren't using him under center. But they aren't, yet. Hell, maybe they are just saving it for the Patriots.
They've had him begin the preplay from under center and then motion into the shotgun a number of times already in the past 2 games, but they don't snap the ball immediately, Geno calls the Mike and then communicates to the Oline before he snaps the ball.
I'm not saying it would be smart or realistic. Just trying to find a reason other than Geno is incapable of taking passing snaps from under center.
A while ago I took it to be unparalleled, but someone provided a link that proved that a lot of currently successful QBs in the NFL started out this exact way. It's why I am not going over the cliff about it now, but it still hinders the offense as a whole, including playcall flexibility. If I get a chance I'll hunt down that link.
Five years under Dana Holgrosen and Bill Stewart will do that to you. Geno's been playing from the gun for his whole football career, it's going to take years, in my opinion, for him to be a competent passer under the center. Some of these college QBS have never played under the center for all of their careers.
Actually, nevermind that "if I get a chance" stuff, I found the thread and link (image) that I was talking about. Waterboy provided this when I was shitting myself about under center snaps for a rookie: So, this is heartening in terms of why Geno hasn't been under center, but it doesn't make the offense any more effective in running the football because of it. Something to chew on, if nothing else.
Thanks, I'm doing some research as well to help out. The only QB I can really think of is Johnny Manziel - he took snaps under center during his Pro Day but that's about it. I agree with you in regards to Geno's inability to play under center, hell each time he hands the ball off to the RB under center the dude trips. He doesn't look comfortable at all. EDIT - You found it awesome dude. It makes sense now because I remember Marty saying it could take 5 years for Geno Smith to understand everything in regards to football.
The players below Geno Smith STILL pass the ball under center [Stafford, Manning, Flacco, Rivers, Foles]. RG3 really has issues passing under center, hence his ineffectiveness the last 1 1/3 seasons. Pryor did at Ohio State. If he hasn't done it yet this season, hell during the preseason - then it's going to take years, years we don't really have.
Keep in mind, as Abyzmal has alluded to, working out of the shotgun (predominately) negates a large chunk of the WCO playbook. Our receivers ain't scaring anyone.
The weird thing is that Geno did run a pro style offense his sophomore year where he had to run a decent amount of plays from center. His footwork was not great but serviceable. It's like the spread set his footwork back 5 years from where it was then.
