A lesson in rollover money, featuring your NY Jets

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by BroadwayAaron, Aug 28, 2014.

  1. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    Messages:
    15,615
    Likes Received:
    20,586
    This is getting ridiculous. Seriously.

    Every day it seems like the topic of Revis comes up and what gets posted is some of the most misinformed garbage you'll ever see on this site... and that's saying something. I'm not going to try and change your mind on the Revis topic, instead I'm going to explain to the people who clearly don't understand or downplay the advantage of rollover money.

    -------------------------------------

    What is rollover money?
    Rollover money is a concept that was introduced in the newest CBA, signed in 2011. It allows a team to do exactly what it says... roll money over into the next year. This number gets added to the team's salary cap number, therefore creating extra space to sign free agents. There is no limit to how much money can be rolled over into the following year.

    Is it really that cut and dry?
    You know it. Every cent you don't spend, you can spend the following year. If you don't spend it the following year, you can roll it on over to the next. It actually doesn't even affect the salary floor, which is a percentage of the unaffected salary cap that the team MUST be paying out in order to avoid penalty.

    Any examples of who has benefited from this?
    Two years ago, Tampa Bay rolled over $23.5 million and subsequently signed Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks -- two of the top players available at their position -- and still had over $13 mil to spend.

    Anyone remember the biggest signing of 2012? A little guy named Peyton Manning? That $19 mil contract was a whole lot more affordable after John Elway rolled over $27 million.

    How were the Jags able to snag two defensive starters from the champion Seahawks, Ziggy Hood, Zane Beadles, Toby Gerhart and sign all of their rookies this year? Carrying over $19.6 mil from the previous year will help.

    The Browns matched Alex Mack's crazy offer sheet from Jax, brought Nate Burleson and Ben Tate on board, gave Joe Haden a monster extension and brought in a pretty hefty front-loaded rookie class. Having an extra $24.5 mil to play with is a nice luxury, I guess.

    Are there any hidden pitfalls?
    Hidden? No. Smart GMs will understand that even if you can spend an extra $20 mil one year, you won't have that same ability the following year (unless you somehow roll over $20 mil more). Handing out big contracts all in one year will hurt your cap the next year. But if you manage correctly, this problem is easily avoidable.

    So how does this affect the Jets?
    There are a lot of variables, but let's look at what we know right now rather than trying to speculate. There is approximately $21 million that Idzik can rollover into next year. That would mean our salary cap number is the estimated $140 million plus the rolled over $21 million... $161 million. Assuming we make no cuts, no trades, no 2-year deals, no extensions before next season, that means we will have $92,833,456 on the books. The dead money is almost non existent... $285,413.

    So $161 million minus the $93,118,869 we will be spending leaves us with $67,881,131 to spend. Again this is approximate because there are variables we have no way of knowing about that will affect the salary cap number... but... wow.

    Brick and Mangold will be due a combined $21 million next year. Does that number look familiar? Carrying over this year's cap money completely wipes out the two biggest contracts on the books for next season. You don't have to worry about cutting your two best linemen, restructuring... any of that. You can now give Mo his money, you can go out and spend $30 mil and STILL have somewhere in the vicinity of $15-20 mil to roll over to the next year! Then you can pay Kerley, you can pay Sheldon, you can pay Harris... you can keep all of your best players all while having the flexibility to add impact players where needed.

    -------------------------------------

    Hopefully that helps if you're one of the few who still don't understand how important rollover money is and how with our current situation, it could be a HUGE boost. Signing Revis would have knocked out $12 million of that money and if he walks next year, you lost a huge chunk of change for a one year rental. Or you have to give him a huge contract to stay as a 31 year old CB and you eat into cap space.

    If you're a rebuilding franchise (check) with young studs you want to lock up (check) and veterans you want to keep (check) then rolling over the money makes WAY too much sense. Far more sense than signing Revis for one year or keeping him longterm. There's really no other way to look at it unless you only care about right here, right now.

    Luckily, our GM doesn't.
     
  2. Chrebet Fo' Ever

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2009
    Messages:
    128
    Likes Received:
    5
    Great, well-written post. Should be stickied for educational purposes.
     
    Royal Tee and LIJetsFan like this.
  3. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 2018 Funniest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    50,859
    Likes Received:
    22,071
    Really good write up, all I would suggest is references to the relevant CBA section.
     
  4. Don

    Don 2008 TGG Rich Kotite "Least Knowledgeable" Award W

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2007
    Messages:
    23,098
    Likes Received:
    1,588
    Hmm..we rolled over money last year into this year and now we are rolling over more into next year..you left out the part about what it means if you never spend it. In the meantime we will be playing with the equivelent of a high school defensive backfield.
     
    NYJetsO12, Royal Tee and FlaJet like this.
  5. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    Excellent explanation of the variables involved.
     
  6. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    Messages:
    15,615
    Likes Received:
    20,586
    Good call. I'll update it a little later on. I have to actually do my real life work now considering I spent the first two hours here researching and writing ;)
     
    abyzmul likes this.
  7. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    Messages:
    15,615
    Likes Received:
    20,586
    Nothing happens. You keep rolling it over until you are over the cap. Smart GMs will be able to roll over money every year. Last year we only rolled over something like $1.7 mil, but every little bit helps when you're rebuilding.
     
    Br4d likes this.
  8. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    We rolled over very little money from last year to this year. This was because the cap was so tight last year. The Jets rolled over between 1 and 2 million from 2013 to 2014. That was essentially emergency money not used during 2013.

    Nonetheless that 1 to 2 million is cumulative in the 21 million the Jets will roll over into 2015. They'd be rolling over 19 to 20 million without it.
     
  9. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    In addition to which the benefit of the cap space to 2015 is larger because the Jets will have more data to fit into the equation. The cap space can't get injured or suspended or suffer a sudden decline in play level in 2014. It's going to be full value to 2015.
     
    BroadwayAaron likes this.
  10. kevmvp

    kevmvp Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2006
    Messages:
    3,864
    Likes Received:
    643
    Great post man
     
  11. Footballgod214

    Footballgod214 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2005
    Messages:
    15,175
    Likes Received:
    6,048
    Teams can spend less than 89% of the cap in any given year and roll the xs money forward as long as they spend 89% on a rolling 4 year average.
     
    Br4d likes this.
  12. CJLang

    CJLang Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2007
    Messages:
    5,496
    Likes Received:
    548
    Football214 answered about what I was going to post....
     
  13. Endlessly Counting

    Endlessly Counting Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    4,641
    Likes Received:
    1,338
    Great post

    the mangold & brick aspect has not been previously explored. We need them and I'd hate to see our linr w/out them
     
    BroadwayAaron likes this.
  14. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    What Footballgod214 said. You have to spend 89% of the cap over a 4 year period.

    With the Muhammad Wilkerson extension coming up I don't think the Jets will have any problems on that front. It's more realistic to project them rolling over about 7-8 million a year moving forward. That's the current 21 million minus what is likely to be a combined 16 million a year hit from Wilkerson and a couple of other players who currently have low cap hits but will have higher hits next year and moving forward. Decker is in this category with a 4 million hit this year that rises. So is Dee Milliner (2.8M rising to 4M by 2016 when he will be up for an extension). Coples is up for an extension next year. Giacomini goes from 2.6 million to 5.1 million. The cap will rise again next year, probably by 5-10%, but the Jets young players salaries will more than keep pace with the rise. The cushion we have right now is going to be very important to maintaining the roster next season and moving forward.

    Snacks is up for an extension next year. If his level of performance continues he will be 10x more expensive on the cap next year than this.
     
  15. jetlife21

    jetlife21 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2008
    Messages:
    1,068
    Likes Received:
    278
    Guess this means we can nab Revis next offseason when we realize we truly needed him this year.
     
  16. abyzmul

    abyzmul R.J. MacReady, 2018 Funniest Member Award Winner

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2003
    Messages:
    50,859
    Likes Received:
    22,071
    I think if Revis ever wears a Jets uniform again, he'll probably be in his mid thirties and playing free safety.
     
    Br4d likes this.
  17. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2004
    Messages:
    36,670
    Likes Received:
    14,472
    I think he'll be looking for a ring and coming back to the Jets to get it. It'll take some real concessions on his part to make that happen, all in the cap realm.
     
  18. KWJetsFan

    KWJetsFan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2010
    Messages:
    13,777
    Likes Received:
    4,279
    Very interesting read. Thanks Mo.
     
    BroadwayAaron likes this.
  19. fozzi58

    fozzi58 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2006
    Messages:
    4,030
    Likes Received:
    69
    Nice work.
     
    BroadwayAaron likes this.
  20. All Gas No Shake

    All Gas No Shake Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2009
    Messages:
    2,328
    Likes Received:
    995
    its actually 89% of the cap, in cash ...

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/sportsm...are-nfl-owners-forced-to-spend-under-new-cba/
     

Share This Page