After first 5 rounds I don't think Idzik was picking pure BPA, more like "BPA among team needs." You can't deny that every position of need was addressed and that some of these guys can become real studs. Pryor is a fucking beast. I believe RR is altering Jets defensive approach. Over the years we were beat through the middle... Well no more. Between pass rush and safeties there will be little time for QBs to wait for deep pass and all short routes should be covered. Pryor has potential of another DROY written all over. Amaro addresses the red zone need and the safety valve for Geno/Vick. I love this pick. My only concern is that he might be injury prone. McDoughle I like his style. Especially quickness and most importantly watching for the ball. I do think he could be had in later rounds. Sounders is ST pick. He should be great on returns. You want em small and quick. No more letting the ball bounce with no one in the backfield. Event is a tall WR. Wasn't have of the board bitching about not having a complement to Decker? Well, now we got one. Dozier is a nice backup and I know nothing about George. Now, I suspect some and maybe many of them could've been had later than they were drafted. We can also argue that there were better prospects on the board for each position. Regardless, JI was actually filling the needs through the draft. Got now I'm inclined to give FO benefit of the doubt re specific selections, but most of the holes were filled.
I already forgot what the name of the original poster is but Abyzmal reposted an explanation of what BPA means. Need positions are factored into that, and when you get into the 4th and later you have such large groupings of players than needs tend to come out more.
And in regards to McDougle being available in later rounds, the Jets don't grade or draft based on rounds, they grade based on grade and draft the player with their best grade. in the middle of the third, McDougle had the best grade for them.
Yes, I posted about applying correction factors that reflect team needs to "absolute" BPA to get adjusted.
If they thought that McDougle was the BPA in the 3rd round then maybe their grading system is flawed as well as their scouting dept. who is grading these players. That's a waste of a pick in Round 3 with so many more talented players available in that spot. He could've easily been had today in round 5 or later. And if the Jets thought he was worthy of that pick then their talent evaluators aren't very good. The Jets FO isn't that much smarter than the other 31 teams. I'm sure no other team had McDougle going in the top 4 rounds.
how do you know he would be available in round 5? for all we know, other teams had a 3rd round grade on him as well. Just because the "experts" at ESPN/CBS/NFL Network may say one thing, doesn't make it fact. There's a reason these guys are in TV and not in front offices.
Hey, PM me your name and phone number so I can put you in contact with the Jets human resources staff. My job with the organization is to scour internet message boards for personnel experts, as we seem to have been having some problems with our current staff.
Noone knows any other team's picks, that's the beauty of the draft. However if you want to look at it realistically instead of just saying "how do you know", law of averages and probability dictates that McDougle was no better than a 5th round pick. Just look at any of the scouting reports leading up to the draft and he was slated anywhere between round 5 and 6. He was picked too early when we could've gone BPA in ROund 3 who definitely was not McDougle on any expert's board. Also a lot of the guys on TV are former execs like Bill Polian and he was one of the best so he kind of knows what he's talking about among others.
And I heard that Bradway was interested in Russell Wilson. That's the beauty of hearsay, that's all it is and nothing more.
First, you don't know what they had on their board, so please don't speak in absolutes. Even if you're right, your argument is deeply flawed. It doesn't matter how high you rate a player. It's all about perception. When you pick a guy is determined by when other teams start getting him on their radar. It's very similar to stock market in this regard -- absolute merits of a company are secondary to how other investors perceive it. Brady is a good example. Let's say that you knew, in advance, the caliber of player he will be. He is undoubtedly a 1st round talent. However, even knowing that, picking him in the 1st would be a huge reach. All you had to do was pick him in 5th, or even 6th before Pats selection. This is 5 rounds worth of value! Again, it's not about strength of the player, it's about perception of him among other NFL GMs.
I can find their info. without you. If that's truly your job and you are truly with the Jets "organization" browsing internet message boards then this franchise has much bigger problems.
Hey, PM me with your name and phone number so I can put you in contact with Harvard University's human resources department. My job with the university is to scour internet message boards for experts in the Laws of Probabilities and Averages, as we have been having some issues with our current professors.
Well, this post right here basically shows you know nothing about prospect evaluation, or the NFL draft. If you knew the kind of player Tom Brady was before the draft, you pick him #1 overall. The fact that you think otherwise is embarrassing.
In all seriousness, can you give a quick summary of how exactly "the laws of averages and probability" has anything to do with where a prospect should be taken? EDIT Or that McDougle was no better than a 5 th round pick
A bunch of people have said that Idzik does not draft based on need. so it's really just a matter of not understanding what BPA is. The teams make their draft boards based on need. From there they try to take the best player available on their list. It never meant anything close to taking the best overall talent available at the time of the draft pick. And its never just THAT simple, there are other factors involved that most of us probably have no clue about.
If you knew Brady was destined to be drafted in 6th and you picked him any earlier than 5th, you'd be fired on the spot. And I wasn't talking about prospects evaluation, don't change the subject. Evaluations are indeed done on the factual merits of a company. However decisions WHEN to buy (or sell) are made based on when perception of the merit is likely to change. In other words, factual a evaluation tells whether or not to buy. Evaluation of public perception tell you when to buy.
The problem is that other teams aren't helpful enough to show you their draft boards and if you know Tom Brady is a first round talent (and, if I recall he was a backup in college) and you can get him in the second round you do because if you wait until the 6th round he may not be there. In that situation you can lose a hall of fame franchise QB to someone else who decided to spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on him. I guarantee you if the Patriots knew that brady would become BRADY they would have drafted him way higher to avoid the risk that someone else gets him. There is one situation where I think you do factor in perception and that is where you have 2 picks fairly close to each other and you think you may end up losing one of your favored players if you take them in one order or the other. The jets did exactly that last year when they took Millner before Richardson because if they drafted Richardson first they didn't think Millner would still be there when they would have next picked.
