So if next year there were a prospect who compared to Tom Brady, and was considered a 1st round prospect, would that be insane simply because Brady was a 6th round pick? Once again, if the NFL knew what Cruz would be in the NFL, he would have been a 1st round pick. Same with Brady. It doesnt matter where they came from... Cant believe I have to argue this, of all things.
in I'm not ignoring production. You can't ignore production entirely. But there are much better indicators for NFL success than college stats. I just have always liked the way Beckham has played. He never felt like a small receiver because he is long and plays aggressively when the ball is in the air and in his hands. And he's not undersized. Cooks is. 10 pounds and an inch and a half isn't a huge deal, but it has to be considered. Especially when Cooks isn't as physical. Cooks had much more of an opportunity to make plays in the passing game because Oregon State threw the ball more in a conference that was more wide open defensively. If Beckham had Cooks' targets, I think he'd be a lock top-15 pick. I get the Cooks-Austin comparison, too. I preferred Austin because he was much better with the ball in his hands than Cooks is. However, I'd rather have a guy I trust more as an outside receiver and that's Beckham. And he offers many of the same things Cooks does in terms of getting yards after the catch, and he's a better returner.
The thing that worries me is that when the good teams wanted to shut down OBJ, they did. When OBJ faced the most NFL-like defenses, he became a non-factor. It's very troubling and you shouldn't ignore it or just blame it on Mettenberger. Everyone and their grandma knew that Cooks was the focus of the offense and they couldn't shut him down, he still produced against everyone.
The thing that really worries me is that OBJ could not find the end zone against SEC defenses. I just don't see how that changes at the NFL level.
Depends how you define produced. The numbers at the end were there, but how did he get them? Oregon State threw the ball 299 more times than LSU did. Cooks had more passes thrown to him than any BCS-conference receiver last season. That's how Oregon State plays, they will put up numbers. Cooks played 2 defenses ranked in the top 30 in the country, Stanford and USC. He combined for 31 yards after catch in those two games. The good teams let Cooks have his catches and tackled him right away. He averaged 56 YAC per game against every other team. It's a fair point you bring up, but Beckham faced 5 top-30 defenses, so he faced a consistently higher level of competition than Cooks did. There were games in which he didn't produce like he should have, but as I mentioned above, he had less opportunity to produce.
LSU threw the ball 34 times in the red zone last year, 19 times in conference games (Oregon State threw the ball 111 times in the red zone by comparison). LSU ran the ball on 74% of their red zone plays last season. That's 16th-most in the nation. LSU wants to be a smash-mouth running team, and that certainly played out in the red zone. Again, Beckham didn't have many opportunities here. Watching him play, I see no reason why he can't play well in this area at the next level.
Yes, but Beckham is supposedly a big play maker. Where were the big plays that went the distance to the end zone? How can a guy go for his entire career as a big play maker and barely break any big plays to the end zone? The root of my discontent with Beckham is that the Jets are clearly looking for a big play maker out of the WR they select this year. Somebody to complement Eric Decker's dual role as a possession receiver and play maker. How can anybody project Beckham to be a big play maker when he just didn't make those plays in college except when he was facing the likes of UAB and Furman and Towson? He's not going to get gimmes like that at the NFL level. He's not going to face tier 2 and 3 NCAA defenses. Everybody is much better than that, even the bad NFL defenses. How can anybody want him as a big play maker based on how he looked on tape when if you remove the games against weak sisters he was never a big play maker and barely a play maker at all at LSU?
Guy had 1,100 yards on 19.5 yards per catch. Only other receiver in the nation with 1,000 yards and 19+ yards per catch was Mike Evans. Admittedly, 2 of his best games were against Furman and UAB. Cooks also had his worst games against the best defenses he faced. TCU and Mississippi State were top-25 defenses last season statistically. Beckham torched both defenses. You can project Beckham to be a big play maker because you watch him play, and you see that he plays physical, that he's fast, he can cut, he can run routes, and he can run after the catch. 81.4% of his catches went for either first downs or touchdowns. Cooks is at 60.2%.
Jetfanmack, you bring up a good area of contention. Of course you'd expect amped up numbers for Cooks with a team that threw as much as they did but my problem with that argument is that I'm not looking at total stats per se, I'm looking at per game production and how that production differs against the different levels of competition that player faced. Cooks still produced no matter the opponent. You bring up Stanford and USC; Cooks still had 80 or more yards in both games; Stanford they lost 12-20, USC they lost 14-31 - obviously Oregon State's offense got shut down those days but Cooks still scored TD's in both games. When OBJ faced a better defense, he turned into just a mediocre player: 4.2 receptions, 63.2 rec. yards, and 0.00 TD's per game average. Then you blame that on LSU being a running team, that's exactly what the Jets are! Asking me to take a leap of faith that he will all of a sudden start producing against even better defenses in the NFL is not something I'm going to bet a first round pick on.
Really don't see why that stat is relevant. That could easily change at the NFL level. Beckham did pretty bad against legitimate defenses. There's a good chance that won't change at the NFL level. Cooks is my guy in the 1st round if we're going WR. I'd even prefer Lee over OBJ at this point as well.
The thing is, I'm not using just measurable when deciding on the player I hop the Jets draft. Just because Lee isn't the fastest, strongest player doesn't mean he should slide to the 2nd round? Even so, the guy generates YAC just as good as any receiver in this draft. I think something should be said about players and how they perform in big spots. That counts for something in my book. Beckham isn't even a physical receiver, he might get jammed by a more physical CB and will never gain separation. There are questions of him going across the middle and I mentioned Marty likes crossing routes.
Look, I like Lee. He's an NFL-worthy player. But he has the same issue that OBJ has; he had two TD's total against the 7 bowl teams he faced. He got shut down by better teams. His 2013 exposed that 2012 was not the truth. He's good but not godly. Bottom line for me is he had a mediocre season and a mediocre combine. With guys that that A) produce, produce, produce and B) are physical freaks (like Cooks and Matthews) to be had, I cannot justify giving Lee a first round grade.
For his career: Odell Beckham vs SEC teams - 26 games, 95 catches, 3.65 catches per game, 1,326 yards, 14.0 YPC, 51 yards per game, 3 TD's, .12 TD per game. Odell Beckham vs non-SEC teams - 12 games, 46 catches, 3.83 catches per game, 979 yards, 21.0 YPC, 81.5 yards per game, 9 TD's, .75 TD per game. Ok, so now we get to the NFL. What do Odell Beckham's numbers look like against NFL defenses?
I agree with you on this. Beckham only had 7 reps on bench too which is pretty bad. Cooks goes over the middle and has the strength to fight for the ball. He's a more well rounder player. Cooks is basically everything we wanted Tavon Austin to be.
Let me add to this. For all of 2012 he had TWO receiving TD's and Zero against D1 competition. In his entire career, he has ONE TD against a 9+ win team Are you seeing a pattern here?
I still believe that 2012 season was the true Lee (healthy, decent QB). The issues at USC, the QB position (awful), Lee having some injures. Those had to of played a role. People forget that in 2012, Sammy Watkins was injured too and he performed worse then Lee did in 2013. Those two were mentioned on the same level at one point in time. Watkins was able to really make moves in 2013 and stay healthy, for that his stock is at his highest point. I agree, the combine wasn't so hot, the season was tough on Lee, I still loved the way he played against Stanford in 2013. I truly believe NONE of the receivers in this class are Godly (like a Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones), but we got some Steve Smiths (CAR), the D-Jaxs, Victor Cruzs and Reggie Waynes out there this draft. I can't get hyped on this Beckham kid like everyone else is. I like Cooks, I really like that kid as well. He's got great confidence, and he's tough as nails. I would be happy with either Cooks or Lee, if it came down to those 2. Different type of players, but those players get hyped up to play on that field.
If it makes you feel any better, I have Cooks higher than Watkins as well. Watkins ran a 4.4. That's standard for WR's these days. His agility is good but not even top 10 for receivers. His vertical was not good. He's on the smaller side as far as wideouts go. Watkins is not going to dominate like everyone in the country is assuming. I'm not saying he won't be very good, he will be, but do you think DeAndre Hopkins is worth a top 5 pick? Because Watkins and Hopkins are just about the same physically and had almost the same stats in their last year with the same team, same QB. I like your comparisons to current players, that's exactly how I feel. So with no Julio Jones' and with such depth of Reggie Wayne types, this is why I'm really not a fan of drafting a WR in the first unless Evans falls.
In 2011 his freshman season Lee caught TD's against Cal (Holiday Bowl), Stanford (Fiesta Bowl), Washington (Alamo Bowl), Oregon (Rose Bowl) and UCLA 2 (Kraft Bowl). In 2012 his sophomore season Lee caught TD's against Syracuse 3 (Pinstripe Bowl), Arizona 2 (New Mexico Bowl), Oregon 2 (Fiesta Bowl), Arizona State (Kraft Bowl), UCLA (Holiday Bowl). Last year he caught just 4 TD's but they were all against bowl bound opponents or in a bowl game. Boston College (Indecipherable Bowl), Oregon State (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl) and of course the two he caught against Fresno State in the (RPLV Bowl). What stats were you looking at in the 2 for 7 category?
You know in a perfect world, it would be awesome if we gripped up Shazier in the 1st with a trade down and grab Jordan Matthews in the 2nd. But I know Matthews won't be there OTC when the Jets pick in rd 2. There has to be some trade-down at some point for the Jets. Maybe there's a scenario where we trade with the Texans, they grab Bridgewater with our 18th and we grip the 2nd round pick they have (which is the 1st pick in the 2nd round) use that pick to select Matthews. Draft day is tough for these GMs lol!
