for the next three years, hes under control and at a bargain rate for that reason, idzik will probably wait until next offseason to extend him ... meanwhile, mo wilk will probably wait for jj watt to set the bar ps ... the unused cap space this year is not going anywhere, it will be rolled into next year ... giving wilk an extension just to use the space this year doesnt make sense
It's worth exploring an extension even though there is an option. Idzik might get him and his agent to agree to a discount for the other years of the deal because he is getting a raise over what he'd be earning for the option year.
Right, but that drastically lower price will be incorporated into the new contract. It's actually an additional 2 years, because we can invoke the option year to get a 5th year at a relatively low price as well. In order to avoid playing the next 2 years for such little money (relative to how good he is), he'd have to be willing to accept a lower per-year value over the total contract.
ah, heres a conversation I've been wanting to have. the 5th year option and our ABUNDANCE of cap space in 2014 throws an interesting variable into things. the deadline for exercising the option is May 3, we can assume it WILL be exercised if no longer deal is reached. Thats JI's leverage, you WILL be paid exactly X between 2014-15 unless you accept a deal where you get paid substantially more than X over those same two years as part of a longer deal in exchange for a lower average annual cap hit from 2016 onward. I say in exchange for a lower future cap hit because an extension now would be pointless without something like that. My thinking is that he can make well above the average for a DE over the next two years in exchange for making just above average (maybe around 8 million?) over the next 4 or 5 years. you don't give a guy like Wilkerson a low number on a consistent basis without SOME opportunity to make a good deal more. thats where the cap space comes in, you can front load the deal as incentive for Wilkerson making less over a longer period of time. So thats the sell, either his camp sees a good opportunity to make a great deal very quickly or better opportunity in waiting it out and letting him bolster his value for a better deal. Now, this is just an armchair GM's estimate (so its probably a bad deal) but I'm thinking something like this: 2014- 14 million 2015- 8 million 2016- 8 million 2017- 8 million 2018- 10 million 2019- 10 million 2020- 10 million 7 years (6 year extension) about 68 million, almost 10 million a year. the guarantees? dispersed over the first 4 years I'm sure, maybe about 25-30 million. I think him making 8 million over the next 3 years pays off in dividends for future cap hits, and i see 10 million becoming relative to those years of 8 million as the cap increases. i wouldn't be surprised if none of this happens and the option is ultimately used, but hey its a worth discussion.
Holy shit Tony, you should be an agent. I don't think the numbers get that high, but I haven't been following the pay scales.
Really though... Tony you need to go march your ass down to Florham Park.. Put in a good word for me when you get there... I would like to be Head Coach. Thanks.
well, I'm trying to take into account the going rate for an above average 3-4 DE over the next few years, in addition to taking into account what an increasing salary cap's effects would be on that. like I said, armchair GM , I'm sure I've fudged those numbers just a wee bit. It DOES feel like an agents opening salvo come to think of it, I'm just trying to build a deal that I now they wouldn't refuse, I'm sure JI is smarter than I am with that. Its hard to figure this one out given the salary difference between 3-4 and 4-3 DE's too.
Well, that's a gamble you're taking, either he will hurt his future earnings potential by not producing next year or he excels as he has been doing. If it's the former your gamble may pay off but if it's the latter then you will just have to pay him more because he will be worth that much more.
fair point, but leaving him to drive up his price might bite you in the ass too. Yeah sure you can use that 5th year option, and they will if nothing happens, but there could be potential cap savings over the next few years if you lock him up NOW compared to that of a deal done next year. delaying a good NFL player's payday will just make him want THAT much more when its time to put up $$$, I don't think Mo will get greedy but he'll want his all the same. this is a good opportunity to lock up a quality player for a long time at a decent rate, the teams abundant cap space and ability to extend him on a whim for a known price can help us negotiate more space down the line if JI plays his cards correctly. think of 2016, think of 2017, if the 5th year option is used these are the years he'll need to be making his due from in a longer term extension, that'll be double digits of millions more than likely. why let those years take the hit when it can happen THIS year, where we have literally nothing else worth spending on? we don't need to let Wilkerson prove he's worth an extension, he already has. He should be a corner stone for the franchise and we can benefit more from setting his future earnings today at modern prices rather than next year after ANOTHER season where he proves himself. with that let me re-think my oh so professional projections from last time: 2014- 10 million 2015- 6 million 2016- 6 million 2017- 8 million 2018- 10 million 2019- 8 million 6 years 48 million, just over 8 million a year with the same 25 to 30 million in guarantees over the first 4 years from last time. I think this is a bit more sane while still being a very reasonable amount. I realized the last deal I made had more YEARS than most DE contracts, so I cut one down (he'll be a 30 year old free agent) and significantly lowered the price on each year. I had based the last numbers on out doing the Ngata deal in Baltimore, not necessary, not really, not even when considering a higher overall cap.
The cap keeps going up, you have to pay some superstars somewhere on your roster! Idzik is not stupid. You won't see $20+ mil of cap space going into every season. If he does let him go, it will be because he is asking for a ridiculous contract. And then he'll find a way to replace him. ------------------------- Idzik has a vision. And he is using discipline and temperament to see his vision through. Just remember, in the nfl, losing one good player is not nearly as bad as overpaying mediocre players to huge guaranteed contracts.
Doesn't Revis show us that if you make that contract he can always back out at some point and say "I'm worth more than what i'm getting"?
Revis is a greedy bastard though. Mo is a lot more humble, plus he's from here. I think he'll be happy with a big pay day period and wont be an issue down the line
Great thread... I think (and would like to believe) that this is Idzik's modus operandi. Spend frugally in FA, draft well and RETAIN your drafted talent that stands out. I'm not a huge fan of in season contracts so I am thinking that once the 2014 draft is complete and before training camp I could see something getting done. Not 100% likely but I can see it. I have no idea about Mo's motivations so not sure if he's greedy or humble but it really is irrelevant. He is an elite talent and should be paid in the ball park...regardless of who gets what first. Personally, I can't see Houston doing much with J.J. because they are cap tight. We shall see.
Mo already squashed the media driven narrative that he will hold out. That right there is a huge difference between him and Revi$.
I don't think $8M a year is going to get it done. As it stands if they exercise the 2015 option he will make at least $8.323M which is the current average of the top 25 DE's. Taking the option year and this year he averages out to $4.8M per. I am thinking it takes around $10M per year to get it done, if they do the extension now, since he has to know if he waits it out he will get $11M-$12M in free agency. I am figuring he is going to get paid like a top 5 DE which at this time is actually over $12M.
Where did you find those numbers? The numbers I found for this year are a lot lower, lower still next year and the year after. http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/defensive-end/limit-25/
There is a lot of nuance to the Revis deal, people don't realize what was actually going on when he held out. It's a calculated risk, you can't just hold out any time. Revis happened to be the best defensive player in the league, it and he knew what his leverage against the organization was. He had just come off that incredible 2009 season, where he had established himself as the leagues best defender and best CB by far. Rex Ryan went on the record saying Revis was probably the best CB in history. This gave pretty much all of the leverage to Revis. Do people realize how much Revis was scheduled to make in 2010? $1 million dollars. That's it. When it comes down to it, for a player of his caliber that's not even worth the risk of getting hurt out on the field. Revis played it smart. Imagine you were widely recognized as the best in the world at what you do for a living, both by your boss and your contemporaries. Now imagine you are scheduled to make a $200 a week yet still put in the effort that makes you the best. You'd be banging on your bosses door for a raise, I promise, because you'd have the leverage. We actually signed him to a very reasonable contract at $8million a year, albeit a bit backloaded, so I commend Tanny for that. That was sort of the end of his smart signings though. The idea that Revis is so greedy is totally overblown. As I said above, When your boss, contemporaries, and those who "analyze" what you do for a living all publicly intimate that you are the current best, if not the best in history, you don't put your body on the line for $ 1 million. That would have been less than half of what Kyle Wilson's salary was that season. Of course Revis was going to hold out, and he actually signed a reasonable contract for us. No doubt $8 million a year is hometown discount for the greatest CB of all time. As Revis proved he was worth so much more over the next 2.25 years up until his injury, he was due a much bigger contract extension. There is no telling what would have happened, it's possible Idzik would gladly extended Revis at $16 million per year with no guaranteed money like the Bucs, with options to restructure should the situation dictate it. We will never know, however, because Tannenbaums numerous, backloaded, short sighted contracts destroyed our cap situation making it literally impossible for Revis to be extended. Revis already took 1 hometown discount, it can't be expected that he'd take less than half of his value entering his prime years as a top player. We have no idea whether Revis wanted to be traded or not, but Idzik new if he didn't trade him, he was going to walk to a team that could pay when his contract was up. Idzik did the right thing, he traded him for two picks, one of which we haven't used and the other immediately became an impact defensive player.
It should actually be $7.78M, I calculated the top 25 not the 3rd through 25th which it should have been. I also used the average yearly contract values not the current yearly salary which I figured would be how they calculated since signing and other bonuses can make the yearly come down significantly. Not sure if this is how the CBA outlines it be done so that could make it change quite a bit. As an example Mario Williams has an average of $16M a year but drops down to 39th highest at $1.9M for 2014 since he has $11.5M in roster, workout and other bonuses.
The reason to sign Wilkerson this year would be if the Jets saw a way to make a win-win deal with him that gave them a lowered cap rate on the second contract and gave him a lot of upfront money to safeguard him against a catastrophic injury or an injury-related decline in his play next season. Other than that I don't see a substantial incentive for the Jets to make a deal at this point. If they're signing him to the same deal he will get after next season or even the season after they might as well wait until those points to do the deal. It's safer for them to wait unless they're getting something out of the bargain.
