Ok...first disturbance...wait..let me set the stage of what we are looking for. Originally, we had 3 potentials for the week...first one we discussed as a light potential. Sunday night Monday..nothing but a reinforcing cold front..so no big deal...strike one.
Ha...GQ..thanks..but NO! When we get together for the game you guys can buy me a drink...putting the 50 back..lol.
Ok...second disturbance for Tuesday night/ Wednesday. At one time it had a decent potential. Not seeing it tonight..in fact last night the GFS all but lost it..but brought it back to a 2 to 4 inch event for almost everyone..so strike 2 for a major snow storm. Still..needs to be watched..was much closer to the coast than last night.
lol...too funny GQ..but hey..maybe? On the other hand, think about how what I do has shrunk the economy..many of you would have stayed longer at work or gone to work when I rightfully advised you to stay home...but cost the economy your brilliance....? Know for sure CMAN has canceled some appointments..hell...I owe CMAN money.
Ok...and then the third potential for the week..now its early..and many things can happen..but lets put out a bulletin for this puppy today. By Saturday, the EURO could lose it...but its been very consistent with many factors in place for a major storm. It has a very cold high pressure to the north providing blocking so that the storm will not be a quick mover..it taps the Gulf of Mexico....its even more organized than our last big storm in which it does not come in 2 pieces..and it dumps heavy snow from NC/VA/MD/PA/DE/NJ/NY/NYC/L.I/CONN/MASS/R.I/ME. 6 TO 12" for NC and southern VA. over 12 for MD/DE/Central PA. 14 TO 20 FOR Eastern PA/N.J./NYC/L.I./Central and southern NY/CONN/Central and eastern MASS/R.I. eastern ME....GOING BY THE EURO MODEL. The EURO has also had a few runs that shows a 1 to 2 foot storm for everyone too...more than 2 feet in many places. So..what does that all mean? Not much until the models still show this storm next Monday. If the models still show the storm on Monday..heres how I usually do things in my head..lets say for a next Saturday storm. Sill on the models Friday night 30% Saturday night 30% Sunday night 40% Monday night 50% Tuesday night 50% Wednesday night 70% Thursday 80% Friday 90% So you get the drift on why this far out...Im sure within the next 24 hours some moron on social media will be declaring the end of the world....but this is the storm to track right now.
14-20" jay? holy shit! the only saving grace is we are losing some of the 2+ feet on the ground now. what an unbelievable winter.
My problem is I am flying home from Arizona to pick up my kids and then we will all fly out on the 3rd to Disney
Jon...just so I have this right..you are flying out on the 2nd from Arizona to here..and then flying out on the 3rd to go to Disney right? Your flight right now to Arizona on the 27th looks fine. Your to Disney on the 3rd looks fine..its the flight from Arizona to here on the 2nd we have to watch. That, as it stands now, is the end of the storm or 12 hours or so after the storm so thats what we have to watch. Do I have that right?
Again, its early FJF but thats what its showing bud. Now lets remember...a week ago the Sunday night/Monday disturbance for this week look like a possible decent hit and the Tuesday/ Wednesday storm looked like a very good hit. When they both got around 6 or 7 days out, the models said no..no big hit. Now as of now, they are showing..well..the Euro is showing a huge hit and the GFS made a few moves to show a bigger hit. Like I mentioned, lets see where we are at t minus 6 or 7 days and see if its still there..right now we are t minus 9. Im checking the 1030 GFS to see if it did anything to any of these storms right now.
Yikes, I gotta keep an eye on this Friday 28th storm. Looking to travel from Boston to NY that day, may just leave Thursday night instead of waiting it out Friday and potentially getting stuck in Boston on the weekend. Thanks for updates Jay!
lol...ok jonnny bud..will try...so we are tracking the 2nd..and right now we are ok with the 27th. Lets see where we are at the end of the weekend jon...will keep an eye on that part.
NP DP...Right now...IF THE MODELS STAY THE COURSE..the 28th should be ok. 24 hour change in a storm is a lot..12 hours is not. So, like I told Jonny..lets see where we are at the end of the weekend. If it does happen, leaving the morning of the 28th still looks good. Sunday night we can take a good look at both travels.
Jay, the Weather Underground forecast for my area next weekend went from 2 days of snow all the way to partly cloudy just this morning. So is it going to miss me or are they just guessing? Zip is 29720.
Just when I thought it was safe to straighten up my tackle box, we got one last blast inbound perhaps in a week. I just got the ice dam melted on the roof too. Man, with all this runoff, the spring fishing season this year is gonna be a few weeks later than usual due to really cold water both fresh and salt.
Right now..no...a new trend...every storm. At around the 7 8 day mark they lose the storms. Dont get me wrong..there could be 3 different 2 to4 events..but right now, no. Here is what I think might happen..whether its the Wednesday storm...the next Saturday storm..or EVEN the monday storm. Think the models are struggling with all the action....add on top of that a huge return of the POLAR VORTEX...and I think the models are having a problem deciphering all the action. I will post it tonight promise..but at one point early next week you will see 5 seperate systems on the maps..and if the models have 1 system in the wrong spot..too quick..too slow etc..then something is going to bust. Long story short, I do think one of them goes boom. Really do. Its the same pattern that killed us several weeks back...and one of the storms went boom.
