Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

I would think so drew...heres the thing...nyc and its boroughs are some crazy animals in the weather world. I would think all the boroughs other than Manhattan will have some bad icing. But you never know. I just think the warmer temps get there too late..but we can check that early in the a.m.

Im going to cheat and check the models for the next storm..be back in a few.

 

baby steps...the GFS just brought the storm back a bit..well more than a bit but much less where it started. 6-12 for North Jersey Lower Hudson Valley...10-15 north and east of there..through Conn/Mass/RI.

It doesnt get cranking until central jersey so less down south but this is the first step back to a huge storm..think that TREND will continue.

OH..THIS IS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM.

 

Ok, first thing I noticed looking at radar to the south is areas predicting to get a front end thump of snow are changing to sleet very fast. That is something to keep an eye out for up here.

So, right now, the warm air aloft is winning the battle. Not sure that has a say up here, but its a start.

Now if that happens, areas in north jersey that were in the 7-11 range could end up with 5 or 6...and then heavy sleet for along period of time. It would not change how safe it is out there..but just lower amounts. Lets see how that plays out in the next our.

 

By the way..I hate the word thump as much as some of you and will from here on refer to it as blast.

 

radar...you can see the wall of heavy precip heading through PA and perhaps 2 to 3 hours away from North Jersey..its moving quickly so perhaps 3 to 4 hours away from Lower Hudson Valley and NYC.

link: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/r...&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

EDIT: the yellow bands are listed as moderate..that would be true for a rain storm. If you are under a yellow band and its snow or sleet....its really coming down.

 

Just looking at the radar again, think Im wrong. The precip field is flying northeast. I would say North Jersey it starts by 130 the latest...perhaps 230 for the city and Lower Hudson Valley.

 

Lancaster PA already getting sleet. Im sure CMAN is over to sleet already. Temps in the mid 20s down there an no snow. This ice storm is going to be a problem for many.

 

Was going to sleep as im sure everyone else is here now...but the snow line is about half hour away...this came in way ahead of what I thought.

See you guys in the morning..and just say no..dont go to work!

 

Heavy snow falling here..half inch and it started about 20 minutes ago. Models were on with this comes in like a lion theory.

 

Ok...really last post of the night..latest short range models continue to show bizarre numbers of frozen...sleet or snow? Secondary storm off the coast of NJ is forming and deepening now and if that continues, could lock in cold air for North Jersey and perhaps even the city.

If that is the case, the high numbers for snow will be reached..and perhaps exceeded and something we might wake up to in the morning because the radar is exploding right now...very heavy snow is about to enter the entire area. If this secondary becomes strong enough to pull the cold air in...well...those in the 7 to 11 range will get it..if not a bit more.

 

cakes...let me tell you guys something. Fell asleep and had about an inch and a half..woke up and opened the side door to 5 inches of snow..and this is the hardest snow I have ever seen in my life. This burst is just a heavy snow mixing with sleet now..but for about a half hour...lol...that was crazy.

 

guys up north..and perhaps even cbg...You guys are in for a shock when you wake up...this storm will over perform I do believe.