I do not believe this off-season is the right off-season to tackle David Harris's future with the Jets. I think something like this needs to be discussed next off-season, the Jets have a lot of things to tackle this off-season alone. Harris is still a talented ILB and had a decent year last season. He's got at least 1 more as a Jet.
If this of season goes well jets will be in the drivers seat next year,to atleast compete for.division
You cannot cover an ILB/MLB's deficiencies. They sit right in the middle of the defense and if they are a step slow things tend to break down. If Harris continues to play at the level he is playing at now then he's good for a couple of years. If he takes a step down the Jets are going to have to replace him, just like they had to replace Mo Lewis, Marvin Jones, Bart Scott, etc. Probably the most important thing to remember about the NFL is that it really is Not For Long. There are a few players that beat the odds and get out into their mid to late 30's but those players were so good in their prime that they're still better than replacement level after they lose the 20% that almost everybody loses between 29 and 32. The reason the Jet's run D broke down in 2012 was that Scott and Harris were both slower than what you need in the middle of the field. This year things got much better because the Jets replaced Scott and brought in some real talent up front. Next year to maintain that edge they're going to need everybody functioning at similar levels to this year. If Harris slows down a step then there's going to be an issue and by mid-season he will be in the position that Scott was in 2012, watching from the sidelines on key plays and trying to get in the game somehow.
We will never be Seattle East until we get phenomenal drafting/talent evaluation. They got two All-Pros in the secondary in the 5th round. Got another Pro-Bowler in Browner as a UDFA. They got their starting QB, regarded as the best young QB in the game, in the third. They got one of the best RBs in the game for a 4th round pick. These late round picks are important. Our past GM traded them all way. He gave them to our head coach like candy. Lets hope Idzik rights the ship.
Yes, they did. However if he steps down again they won't be able to cover for him as well next year. Figure that from 30 on you have about a 50/50 chance each season that a player maintains the ability to fight off replacement level players for his job. So from the perspective of 30 you have a 50% chance to keep your job at 31. From that same perspective by 32 your overall chance is 25%. By 33 your overall chance is 12.5%. By 34 you're are 6.25%. Your career begins verging towards the vanishing point when you cross 29 and by 35 about 97% of all players are retired. Now for star-caliber players the math is a bit different because their overall ability is much higher than the average player. At age 30 Ray Lewis was still twice as good as the average starting NFL ILB/MLB. That meant that he was going to be able to fight off replacement level players for a long time. He could step down each year and still maintain his overall value at a level above a random second or third round pick trying to replace him. So Ray Lewis steps down at 31 and loses 10% of his ability but now he's still 180% of the replacement level player. Then at 32 he steps down again and he's 162% of the value of the replacement level player. If he keeps stepping down 10% a year it takes him until late 30's to reach the point at which he has to retire. The only thing that is going to retire Ray Lewis before that is Ray Lewis, either by deciding that it is time to go or by being unwilling to play for what the Ravens were willing to give him under the cap. David Harris has been a very good player but he is not much above replacement level right now. A good second round LB is probably worth more to that defense next year than Harris. By 2015 it is going to be hard for Harris to maintain his position on the field because many replacement LB's will be better than him. I really like Harris as a player. He's a Wolverine and I'm a big Michigan fan. I also see him for what he is, which is a very good player on the downside of his career. I'd take any of the good second round LBers of the last few years over him. The Jets would be a better defense if they had those guys.
How often does getting value like their secondary that late in the draft actually happen? I give Seattle all of the credit in the world but to hit home runs on late picks like that is rare. I think we got great value out of this past draft so far, with the exception of Aboushi and Campbell who did not see the field almost all of them started. This next draft is really going to be Idzik's to make an impact as he has the picks combined with a full year in the drivers seat. I am really excited for draft day because I am confident we are going to get some great value this year with the play makers that are available. Should be fun to watch as the season progresses. I think we are still at least 2 years away from being compared to Seattle.
Harris had a better 2013 than he did in 2012. So he stepped up. I actually thought he'd be done by 31. But his 2013 play makes me optimistic that he can give us 3-4 more years of good play.
He didn't have a better year in 2013. His year looked better because almost all of the players around him were better. In fact he had fewer tackles, fewer sacks, fewer passes defensed. His numbers were less than they were in 2012. If you look at 2011 though it becomes clear that the step down process has been going on for a couple of years now. In 2011 Harris had 5 sacks, 4 int's and 9 passes defensed. He was a really good two-way LBer at this point in his career. By 2013 Harris was a one-dimensional run stuffer which is why the Jets used him that way. When you hear the term "liability in coverage" used that's code for "lost a step". All the RB's and TE's don't suddenly get better year over year, the guy covering them gets worse.
Harris has always been a liability in coverage and I don't care what the #s say he was better this year than he has been in a few years.
Four years? Really? Despite his somewhat improved play in 13, realistically I do not expect to see Harris continuing to start much past this coming year and maybe an even chance in 15. It is just too likely he will slow down, and he is no speedster right now. The Jets need to upgrade overall speed at linebacker. Pace is already a senior, although he set the edge quite well this past year. Coples while young is too big to be fast, and Davis disappointed me last year. While there are many needs on O, on the defensive side I would rank LB right after the safeties as an area in need of new talent.
How can you make this post, yet say in post #103 that he should be good for a couple of more years? They are mutually exclusive. You are spot on in saying that you can't hide someone who is too slow in the middle of the D, and that describes Harris to a T. He's a good tackler, recognizes plays and a great teammate and citizen, but is just too slow. He's a liability in the middle rather than a positive much of the time. IMO at what he's being paid, he needs to go, and the sooner the better.
If he doesn't step down he's going to be ok for 2014 and maybe 2015. His cap numbers are not bad either year and there is not substantial cap relief to be gained by cutting him. If the Jets could find a stud middle/inside linebacker in the 2nd or 3rd round next year then he's probably at replacement level at this point. By 2015 he certainly will be, barring an unusual resurgence of the ability he has lost over the last two years. If he steps down he's going to be replacement level fairly quickly. Note that I said in post #103: "If he continues to play at the level he is at now..." The Jets waited a year too long to replace Bart Scott. That's why the run defense was weaker than it should have been. They were also a year too late on Pouha but that's another story.
He looked quicker and was better overall. That's maybe me just basing this on the eye test. Like 101 said this is not the year to deal with Harris.
I disagree in that I think any year can be a year to replace a player if one goes by the BPA philosophy. Somewhere in the 3rd-5th round, there could be an ILB who the Jets have as the highest-rated player on their board (Borland or Bullough, perhaps). Unless there is a player at a position of need who is rated practically even with that ILB, imo the Jets should take the ILB and if they think he can replace Harris in 2014, then they ought to release Harris and gain the extra half million in cap space. That could be the difference in their being able or not to sign a player during the season to replace someone who goes down with a season-ending injury.
I'm okay with drafting an ILB we need as much talent as possible at every position. Outside of maybe the d-line.
The fact that our GM admitted on Hard Knocks that he gave one draft pick a year to our HC despite having no scouting/management experience? They weren't 7th rounders either- John Conner was a 5th rounder. The same round Sherman/Chancellor were picked in (the same year too coincidentally).
If you think late round picks aren't worth much then you give them away like candy. Whether you're giving them to other teams or your head coach doesn't matter much at that point right?
