Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. wexy

    wexy Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2004
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    0
    I had only heard a couple of inches and then I saw that supermarket parking lot was full...
    put on the radio and the guy said "nightmare."
     
  2. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2011
    Messages:
    13,737
    Likes Received:
    595
    I checked the basic weather sites last night/this morning and read almost nothing for Boston. Check again today, 4-8 inches prediction for Tuesday night into Wednesday
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    the problem with the pros is they are afraid to say I could be wrong. Thats it in a nutshell..nothing wrong with saying this could happen but right now it shouldnt.

    Put it out there...your wrong? Let me tell you something kids...200 years from now, the weather will be a bit better predicted..but there will always be busts..always. Mother nature is going to do what she wants.

    What ticks me off is that we have talked about this chance now for a week..and you heard me say things like the models are saying south but the atmosphere isnt.

    Dont get me wrong...there will be storms that come out of nowhere with not backing whatsoever...this is not one of them.

    The pros today have a huge hard on with the EURO model and rightfully so..its been domininating for a long time...but it sucks this winter..totally sucks. It never had this storm until 1am this morning..and still had our area for 1 to 2 inches.`

    The American model has been showing this as a real chance for 4 days now.

    Only today did the EURO budge to over 4 inches..so its not even there yet.
     
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    A chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 18. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
    Tuesday Night Snow likely before 1am, then snow between 1am and 2am, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow after 2am. Low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -4. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
    Wednesday Snow likely with areas of blowing snow before noon, then areas of blowing snow and a slight chance of snow between noon and 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a north wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

    This is Boston M...I would say totals should be the same because these totals will go a bit higher..and be a bit lower west of the city..just a tad.
     
  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Just had a very good discussion with a buddy of mine who follows this stuff and the main piece of energy which was on the models now for about a week..hit USA soil about 24 hours ago..and its this northern piece of energy that will throw the gasoline into the storm and boom.

    Now this piece of energy was digested by the models last night..thats why you saw me come on just after midnight and say huh? when I looked at the model runs coming in. They digested this new information and I could go on for hours..but long story short this allows the storm not only to go boom..but helps pull the energy north...something the models the last few days didnt want to do.

    So in a nutshell...AND PLEASE DO NOT THINK IM TAKING ANY CREDIT..I DIDNT NOT CALL FOR A HUGE SNOWSTORM A FEW DAYS AGO...but in a nutshell what we did see as potential the past few days...just got doused with fresh gasoline..and there is your snowstorm.

    BUST POTENTIAL: And you guys know I like to talk about bust potentials..busts will happen at the very north of where the banding sets up..and right now POTENTIAL busts would have to include the Poconos...lower hudson valley...very interior Conn..and Mass.

    Jersey shore? Crushed...NYC..pretty crushed..and Long Island..blizzard. That blizzard word could spread west depending on the winds...very very possible.
     
  6. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Oh..everyones favorite...schools and work.

    This is for the NYC metro area:

    Schools should open tomorrow..early dismissal very possible. Work? Get out of there by 1 to 2pm the latest.

    Better chance at schools being closed on Wednesday..if this plays out the way I think it might.
     
  7. Drew

    Drew Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2004
    Messages:
    4,427
    Likes Received:
    20
    I work at a school until 5:15... hoping that this thing comes in and we get outta there around 3 if we're lucky.

    Snow day wednesday would be delightful.
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Model trends..you heard me talk about volatile trends upward..and Staff made reference to it...the models keep trending higher with totals..and this has the look of a major...major storm.

    12 plus for many.

    Now..the fly in the ointment could be the cutoff around i95 between 12 inches and people getting just over 6. I really do not believe that will be the case.

    The only question left to answer now is that with the storm still 18 hours away from really kicking into gear..do the trends go even higher..do we start talking about 12 to 18..have seen this before with last minute nutty trends.
     
  9. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    27,721
    Likes Received:
    31,387
    thanks for the info jay, i can live with being in the bust zone on this one. i don't like when they sneak up on us
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    515 is entering peak time Drew..hopefully they do the right thing and everyone is on way home by NO LATER than 3 bud.
     
  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    another MAJOR player for our storm is occurring right now over North Jersey..has probably happened already to the west..and is heading to the major cities as we speak..and thats a huge cold front. Laying the groundwork. Temps in the mid to upper 40s today will be in the mid teens come early morning.

    This allows snow to fall AGAIN with temps in the teens and then single digits..giving us higher amounts because of the snow ratios. What would normally be a 7 inch storm turns to a foot with these conditions.

    Light flurries that seem to mean nothing right now falling..but its a major cold front crossing us all in the next 2 hours.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Now when we talk about models we have the standard ones EURO...GFS...CMC blah blah..but when you closer to the storm you have other models for use...RAP etc..these models go out 12 hours..some 24..some 48.

    Reason I mention that is because some them are showing a start time much earlier for the heavier snows...perhaps 10am...something that we need to track.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Now..this is one model...but it shows the trend:

    [​IMG]
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Now that model tends to overdue it..it also has been spot on a few times..I would take 2 inches off your location. Then again...trend.
     
  15. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    7,220
    Likes Received:
    2,279
    Sweet, the ticket market for the Islanders game at MSG is going to get slammed. Guess I'll be picking up some tickets by the glass for 20 bucks :)

    How much snow are we looking at in midtown & Queens?
     
  16. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    Jay, how we looking out here in SoCen PA?
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Staff,

    I think an argument could be made that models in general are having a real tough time getting snow storms down..very tough time. Now I hear your argument and little could be said that could downplay how mans involvement has lead to some of the most catastrophic weather patterns..changes...in recorded history. I would be bullshitting you if I told you I completely agree with all of it being man made because over the centuries..before mans involvement..we have had major swings in weather...major.

    I, for one, wouldnt even attempt to make a counter argument to that. I had a discussion a few months ago with CMAN concerning things I have noticed with the weather..and while they may seem subtle to some, I think it plays a huge roll in some of the off the wall weather we have seen.

    There is no doubt in my mind that the ability of our atmosphere to HOLD temps to the surface and allow the sun to penetrate easily...or easier through is a fact. CMAN and I were discussing how when snow falls, even decades ago, the ground had an easier time after storms in holding what is there. To try to make sense of this, after a snow falls, you see temps in the lower 20s but melting still occurs. The suns ability to do its thing unless temps are let say in the single digits has been made easier to whatever ozone..hole in the ozone..etc..you get my point.

    I..being a snow loser..have noticed that for the last 10 years being a huge difference after snow storms.

    Now, while on the surface it might not mean like much and truly not knowing how that totally controls other phenomenons, it is a huge factor because the argument back against global warming..or man made global warming is overall temps. This has nothing...nothing..to do with overall temps. This has to do with the ability of the sun to do things that the temps say should not be done.

    Hope that makes sense.

    Now..from a weather guy standpoint, I would say while some of things you mentioned are correct...a much simpler IN THIS CASE argument is that the models have always struggled with the polar vortex and its ability to produce a spinning storm off the southern edge that winds up close to the Atlantic...and boom..a huge storm. Models hate the polar vortex..and regard it as a cold front. Period. Models have always struggled with it.

    Now the reason for models being so poor at times is twofold.

    1. I have no problem with the models when they say its going to give us 4 inches and it gives us 10 inches. Broken down to liquid precip, thats about a half inch. In the summer, when the weather guys says its going to really rain out there and you get a half inch of rain instead of an inch..you just think maybe it rained a little less. Where if it was snow, you got 10 instead of 4 or 5. Those will always be tough calls.

    2. Yes...the models do suck with a storm like this and while 100 theories could be given by weather pros..and half of them right..it just shows we are decades away from just being good at predicting..and will never be great.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Queens is really on the border for near a foot..or at least a foot GG.

    CMAN...I think you getting 6 to 9 is an easy call right now..lets see if they trend higher tonight bud.
     
  19. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    27,721
    Likes Received:
    31,387
    ftr. accuweather is saying just a bit of snow for tomorrrow afternoon and TWC calling for

    1-3" afternoon/evening

    they underselling this thing jay?
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2004
    Messages:
    7,991
    Likes Received:
    1,505
    Well, if you are putting in Hudson Valley area...they have that being on the bubble for heavier snows FJF? I mean, 1 to 3? I would do a drug test on them..you are getting well over 3 bud.
     

Share This Page