NWS NOW has a winter storm watch in effect: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...EASTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN BERGEN COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE DAY...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AT NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
Yes jay,,,let us /me know what u think,,,,,ch 7 said dusting to an inch,,,,and no warnings for me,,,,,,,,yet ? Or not at all buddy ? Keep us posted,,,,ps hope all is well !
thanks cbg. If you go by the latest models..especially the short term..central jersey is the dividing line between big snows and good snows. North Jersey still gets easy 5 plus..easy. CMAN...THIS STORM IS FOR YOU BUDDY..SOME DOWN BY YOU..ESEPCAILLY A BIT EAST..MAYBE A FOOT.
AND because this storm is much bigger than thought..the Thursday storm is almost a dud now. Stolen energy. Latest short terms have a strip of 8 to 12 running from north of Baltimore..philly...i 95 special until NYC when the heavier precip heads a bit east...eastern LI gets clobbered..eastern CONN...same. North Jersey...6 to 10...lower hudson valley...3 to 6. Now the trend has been north and the big question is the trend done? We are 24 hours away from steadier snow. Snow starts out lighter Tuesday morning and by 2 to 4 pm..south to north..it comes down heavy until around 8 to 11 pm..south to north.
this is what I would call a volitile correction. Have seen these before. The models go back to their original setup but do it within 24 to 48 hours..so whatever they are spitting out right now is happening so fast that forecasters cant keep up. What this means is there is a very good setup here..and the chance that the models are not close to the end game of what could happen. News 12 has much of NJ in the 3 to 6 range. Thats what the models showed last night at 11 pm. Catch up...and right now my gut tells me that there will be a decent amount of folks who end up closer to a foot of snow on this one.
weather.com is saying 4-7 inches in South Jersey. My friend from Texas is coming back up again for work. She dodged the crappy weather last week but ain't missing it this time! Hopefully she gets in early tomorrow before it gets rough.
Those numbers are WAY too low GD. Like I mentioned before, forecasters cant handle the models increasing totals this fast. Again...many areas south of I80 will get close to a foot..and that trend north might not be done yet. D.C. gets near a foot..cman gets near a foot..now does that number climb north to the lower hudson valley? Close call but not yet.
Blizzard warnings might be issued for L.I. at least Eastern L.I. Huge question is this..and its huge..what do the models do tonight? Another 50 mile north and west swing brings everyone in the range of 8-14. Be back later but Im sure your local news will be singing about this one in the next couple hours.
I'm near Egg Harbor Township. Not sure if that makes a difference in the snowfall totals. Interesting. Accuweather says 6-10 inches.
Anyone following this thread knows I am not happy about this, but what I find more annoying/interesting is how bad the forecast models have been for it. It shows you how little we understand about meteorological events when overnight a forecast goes from an inch to a foot. You mentioned volatility, Jay, and that is the key nowadays with weather. People can debate the causes (although to me the evidence for substantial man-made causes is overwhelming), but they can't debate that climatic patterns worldwide over the past few years have been dramatically different from what they were in the 20th century, and dramatically more unstable, precisely what is predicted to happen from global warming models.
Accuweather got us at 5-7" by tomorrow evening. I'm laying out salt tonite and will have the Ariens at the ready tomorrow.
Every model refresh shows more snow, this is absurd. I'm looking at 10-12 inches in central NJ at this point.
winter weather watch was issued for all my neighboring counties to the sout and west of me and weather channel jus upped it to 4-6 for me. so much for sitting on the sidelines
This is no I told you so story but the NWS should be embarrassed by this. Listen, I posted their forecast all week with partly sunny skies when a major storm was just a couple hundred miles off the coast and all signals THIS WINTER have been for models to go back to what they had originally. Im no expert..by far...but nobody can say we havent discussed a real chance here..any person that follows models saw this at a very good chance for a plowable storm. Staff..you make some GREAT points which I will touch on later this evening. Bottom line is 6-12 for most..and the reason being is that this phases about 100 miles south.and east..and boom. I dont understand how the NWS didnt even discuss this chance just 48 hours ago.
Great job Jay,,,keep us posted as i will check your thoughts all evening and morning,,,,,,,,,i will play it by ear but most likely blow outta work early and with any luck we all get to bang in or out on wednesday,,,,,i expect early dismisals tuesday,,,,,but time will tell,,,keep em coming jay
