Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

lol jon....now that should have been filmed.


edge..cbg...this storm tonight..well actually it starts early morning will bring around3-5 inches of snow. Edge..really depends on the track because you are either in prime real estate or rain issues. Will know better this evening when we can use hi def short term models that go out 12 to 24 hours.

This is a quick hitter..but heavy snow will fall when it starts. The huge question is what time. Some models have it starting at around 4am...some 8.
Then there will also be a direct cut off line..areas north of the nj/ny border will probably get less than areas along i95 but after watching that storm yesterday and what it did to the south...2 important things.

1. will not get a good idea where that cutoff is until tonight

2. bands of heavier snow will setup SOMEWHERE like it did yesterday..and where that band sets up will get winter storm warning type snow...over 6 inches. I really believe some might get 7 or 8...it would even be higher but again..this is a real quick mover..lasts a total of maybe 7 or 8 hours.

Will be on later today and this evening to nail it down.

 

Timing: Just checked real quick the USA short term model which did really well with yesterdays storm and start time is around 5 am for southern PA which would make the start time for central jersey around 7am..and around 8am for us up here.

Will get a better idea tonight but that model shows a heavy burst of 1 to 2 inches per hour in a 2 to 4 hour period. It will be flying.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Baltimore area already.

 

That is a great idea brook because the models are starting to lock in..and edge will be getting a decent amount of snow.

Here is the thing, the whole state of NJ gets in on this...and I would say basically a 3-6 snow fall but..and this is a huge but...somewhere a band will set up in the state that runs the whole entire state west to east..and about a broad 30-50 mile north to south that will do even better than that.

Those bands are incredibly hard to nail down. I would say central NJ to I195 west to just south of NYC if that make sense. again.thats not 195 but I195 near philly to NYC west to east and about 40 miles wide north to south.

Now, big guess there but people in the band could get more than 6.

Would not surprise me if areas in south jersey to central jersey and even further north are not under a winter weather advisory but a winter storm warning by tonight because of what happened yesterday.

Paranoid is the word of the day for paid forecasters after yesterday. So good move Brook especially for that guy from south jersey...he will be happy you postponed.

CMAN you should get almost the same as yesterday but for all...this will be a much drier snow for the most part...so ratios are higher.

Those north of the NJ/NY border..the numbers SHOULD go down a bit until you are about 50 miles north of the border where it turns into a light snow event or nothing.

 

lol...I read this real fast cman did not see the 7.5. I would guess you for 3-5 so lets go with 4.5.

Now CMAN, not to get your hopes up..there are a few short term models that have you for about 6 to 8...so lets see if other models follow course tonite sir.

 

Is it me or is this the same exact band I just described. While my first instinct is to say I swear to God..blah blah blah..I truly do not care lol. But this is pretty bizarre.

At the same time, I would never make a map like this even if I thought it..because the chances that the actual band will setup where I described it or where this map shows it are slim and none.

Read the areas above where I thought the band might set up and look at this graph..pretty exact.

With that said, this thinking is a combined GFS/NAM model run...my example is probably a bit wider north to south. This guys is about a highway wide.

LINK: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=211852

 

One last thing before tonight..I will be on after 8. This is a quick hitter..if you are not in the zone..or if this storm doesnt hit you when the timing range is...there is not time for recovery. Its projected as a 10 hour storm and I have seen these a million times..your time that it will snow will be around 8 hours tops.

So those that get 8"..and a few will...thats a very decent rate...strong storm...very quick storm. See you guys later.

 

Seems like I will never get off this thing today..this is REALLY IT until tonight:

From the NWS..a few things to point out..

1. They are only calling for 1 to 3 up here...so I get to root against them.

2. Hmmm..see that weekend forecast? Thats the POSSIBLE big storm we have been talking about. They even have chance of snow 50 % which is very high this far out. I will say this..this storm can easily go out to sea...but it really has a chance to be the first big noreaster of the year.

Here is the week forecast from NWS:

A chance of drizzle. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 42. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Tonight A slight chance of snow and sleet after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday Snow likely, mainly between 7am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Light northwest wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19. West wind 8 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. West wind 9 to 14 mph.

Wednesday Night A chance of flurries before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.

Thursday A chance of flurries before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.

Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Your boss might have a guy GQM..but is he a loser? I mean a jet fan? See, thats where I differentiate myself from the rest buddy boy.

Lol...quite honestly his prediction is very good..and very model based. Its exactly what the short term models are pointing to.

But what I like to give you..besides being the loser Jet fan...are the what ifs.

Like, what if the nothern stream flying down from Canada right now in the link provided here: http://i1250.photobucket.com/albums/hh540/Weathernut27B/wv-animated.gif

I mean..check that powerhouse out. The what if is this...what if that northern stream keeps that head of steam up and meets with all the moisture now coming out of the Gulf of Mexico?

My point is simple one. You can go ahead and predict an inch to 6 inches all the way from MD to all of NJ and most of L.I. except extreme eastern L.I. and be right...but the thing that is sticking with me is that other than the very fast speed of the storm, some areas will get clocked by decent amount more snow.

Rates of 1 to 2" per hour will set up somewhere in N.J. and while the NWS claims it will be in south jersey, I think the setup will be more north.

At some point tomorrow around 930 AM, the banding I have seen is a few models will setup in its "spot" and right away it will be clear who will get some very impressive snows for about 4 hours. I mean, its going to snow hard.

Its also going to major bust for either the most northern in the prediction zone..or the most southern in the prediction zone. Someone who is getting called for 2-4 or 3-6 or as that guy says 2-5...someone is going to get shutout with just light snow.

Its a fast moving storm. They are calling for 8 hours and I would be shocked if it lasted more than 6. Still at and inch or and inch or two an hour, that band will drop around 9.

 

Joe, I have to be honest with you...that guy could knock on my door during halloween and get shut out. Not ashamed to say there would be a little fear as i pee myself and run.