Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

lol..sorry for my heavy favoritism SJ....I will see what we cn do that period but its a pretty crazy time from a few days before until a few days after.

In fact...anyone that can say they know what will happen the next few weeks is a liar. For instance, the first REAL storm on Sunday night /Monday starts off as snow and ice for many and changes over to rain overnight..but when? Right now it looks like many will have snow on the ground Sunday night but many will have it washed away Monday morning.

Going backwards, small disturbance overnight Friday/Saturday morning starts off as rain and ends as snow showers.

Then the storm we discussed Sunday Night..then SJ the storm on the 12th..still a real close call snow/rain or out to sea. Then next weekend another storm.

Taking one at a time...the storm coming Sunday is a true rain track..but there will be so much cold air in place at the start it begins as snow. How fast does the cold air get pushed out? This will be the difference of some getting mostly snow well north...some getting an ice storm in north pa/ny state/ and some gettting a quick burst of snow then sleet..then rain..south of the nj/ny state border.

Tough call...but will try bud!

 

CBG..crazy week for me but a FULL write up tonight is promised!!..I put it in my calender..lol.

Edge..thanks..we have a good time with this. I think this might be a good year for snow starting in about a week and a half and lasting for about 45 days..we shall see.

 

LOL..NAH Brook..we were not thinking that at all..why would we? We will be knee deep in snow while you are away!!

Hopefully, we can hold a few storms back for you but I really do believe you will miss at least one.

Too many storms on the horizon and the big questions are...enough cold air? AND will the setup change to force storms to the coast instead of the great lakes. Great lakes storms...like the storm on Sunday/Monday bring warm air but sometimes 2 things can happen.

1. They transfer energy to another storm that forms of the midatlantic coast.
2. Cold air in place allows the precip to fall as snow/ice before a changeover...that is what we might be looking at with this storm.

Storms that reform off the Atlantic coast are called MILLER B storms..a great miller b storm was the blizzard of 78. On my top 5 of storms.

Miller A storms form in the gulf and ride up the coast..much higher percantage of dropping major snows...see Blizzard of 96.

Ok..the lessson for the day..miller a...miller b.

 

I like to visit accuweather forums to see what storms they are following. About a week ago I mentioned that a train of storms was coming...here is a quote from one of their mods:

We will go ahead and look at all the threads tomorrow. Also, as long as your discussion about the future has a direct reflection on the thread it can be allowed. Don't let it get out of hand though.

What he is saying here is that there is so much confusion looking at the future models at all the storms that they are overlapping. Is it the same storm or is it a new strom right on the heels of the old storm.

The reason I bring this up is because although some of the storms are small...the pattern is as active as I can remember in the past 5 years.

Does it bring a snow storm out of all this? Perhaps...if the track is all the same we could be sitting here on JAN 1 and saying hmmmm..what happened? A lot of action but not much snow.

I personally think winter will take care of itself..as the storms start to come through...the track will move more south just as it should for winter. Storms early on will be snow to rain..then mostly snow and mix...then snow.

When will that transfer over? Will have a better idea around the 10th of December.

 

Here is a snap shot of precip totals...liquid precip totals from Saturday night to Tuesday night that involves 2 systems. These are some nice numbers..the problem is that most of this is early snow/ice washed away by rain. As it stands now. Can more cold air be pulled in? Depending on the track. But this map explains the problems with the forecast much better than I can.

Again...this is liquid...take your area and mutiple the number by 10 if it were all snow. You are in the 1.5 range? 15 inches of snow....BUT AGAIN...this will be 2/3 rds rain.

LINK:http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=210922

Be on later to explain it much better with time frames and future stuff.

 

First off, Jet game...precip does not get here until after the game right now..high should be around freezing for the game.

Ahead that storm and the Jet game, temps the next few days will be great...even getting near 60 on Friday...enjoy it..because that might be it for a long long time.

Warm front moves through with showers Friday night..followed by a cold front Saturday morning..and as the temps drop from 50's overnight to 30's Saturday, you could see rain change back to snow and give us an inch or two on Saturday. Cold Saturday night...Jet game might start out nice and sunny..clouds for the next storm start moving in during the game.

The first trick part which I discussed above starts out Sunday night with snow/sleet and Freezing rain starting Sunday night and making a pretty big mess for many by Monday morning. Monday rush hour could be ok..or a disaster.

The timing of the switch over is the key whether it happens overnight Sunday...or after 9am Monday. Right now the models are saying areas close and east of NYC will be fine..but areas west of I95 might have a real trick morning. Areas west of 287 will not be good until mid morning.

How much snow and ice? Depending on if its mostly freezing rain/sleet or snow..but a good guess is that for areas west of I95...at least 3" will be on the ground come morning.

Then...its the waiting game. The models continue to show a train of storms shooting across the southern USA from a very active SUB TROPICAL JET. They also show a very active Arctic Jet driving cold air in starting in about 10-12 days.

Why is that so important? Sub tropical Jets run along the southern USA and tap into the Gulf of Mexico...and Arctic Jet..well..they bring the goods baby. Need the cold air and the phasing of Jet Streams of give you the big ones.

Last year, I cant remember a single storm involving an active Sub Tropical Jet. In around 10 days, storms should be racing along the southern part of the country.

Fly in the ointment..or for guys like STAFF and Jonnny etc...saving grace? When you have an active southern jet and arctic jet...the word of the winter could be SUPPRESSION. Suppression keeps storms south of us and gives areas in Virginia, NC Southern MD etc...record winters. For reasons that would take me pages to explain, I do not think that will be the case because the Atlantic setup should pull storms up the coast...SHOULD.

So...future storms?:

After the December 9th storm

December 12 storm which might be pushed back 24-48 hours.

December 15 storm

December 19 storm...and the train continues.

The trend is there...but for snow lovers, do we break the trend of storms going west of us COUNTER CLOCK WISE ROTATION..look back a few pages to find out why thats important or ask CBG. Do the storms break that trend and allow storms to come up the coast...like I said earlier today, winter should take care of that...but you never know.

Will be on tomorrow night to update the Sunday/Monday storm. There are a few things that could allow that storm to be a real ice storm for many in NY State and possible parts of PA and NJ. Will check later tonight and tomorrow to see if there is a chance.

ENJOY!!!

 

Thanks Brook and CBG.

One thing we...no no...I have to keep in mind because Im as desperate as they come for shut down snow..is todays date. A friend of mine who likes to follow this stuff reminded me about this tonight. He is not as crazy as me but asks me questions all the time.

I responded back to him how damn close we are to having a real crazy winter but just missing. He responded back...Jay..whats todays date?

I think what has really made us a bit selfish? is the early storms the past few years...snow on Halloween etc.

Lets not forget we get storms before and after the following dates..but the true bombs of winter storms come in the range of 1-5 until 2-15. Thats when the patterns are the best...but..and this is a huge BUT...the pattern we are about to see starting in a early next week..and really kicking in in a little less than 2 weeks from now begs for winter to start earlier than usual..and hopefully will not be wasted by what the calender says!

Ok guys...Im having a real study night here. Just saw that the small disturbance on Saturday might drop a few more inches than we thought. Some might get 3 to 5 back end snows (rain to start...snow to end) out of this.

Cramming tonight guys!

 

Thanks Brook...while I agree for selfish reasons about enjoying this thread..I still love the NY Knicks/Rangers threads the most.

This thread reminds of like doing movie reviews. You review a bunch of movies..some are good..some suck...some are really good..and then every so often..a great movie comes out..and thats what we are looking for here.

Love to see the nice little storms of 2 to 4 come through...and then the great 6-10 inches come through...but when that real bomb of a storm looks like it might happen...and we track that happening...thats when this thread becomes the best..and thats what some of us are hoping for one or two times this winter...and I really believe this is the winter we get at least one huge huge storm.

 

Right now...checking around 6 models for the Sunday/Monday event...have to say this. Someone..somewhere west of I95..in some cases as much as 100 miles west of i95, there is a very good chance for an all out ice storm.

If you take all the models right, still 6 days away so this line could change, northern PA..west of I84 in NY State up to around Windham NY...has a very good chance at a dangerous ice storm.

Now that line could move more east...I doubt west. While I love the snow...the ice storms are no joke..but its a real possibility for strip about 50-75 miles wide..and about 150 miles long. Of course now would be a huge guess but the above area mentioned is where that sets up now.

 

thats weird cbg because the Saturday chance is less than the Monday morning chance.

The Saturday chance is whether or not the cold air gets in fast enough before that little storm ends. Some models have it coming in a few hours after midnight Friday/Saturday morning...some models have it cold enough around 8 or 9 am...right around the end so basically nothing.

Now Sunday night/Monday is your classic CAD. New lesson. Cold air damning. Although the storm track is not perfect, there will be a good amount of cold air locked in when the storm starts.

Cold air is heavier than warm air right? Warm air rises to the top..cold air settles lower towards the floor. The warmer storm comes in and rides over the cold air...precip falls as snow to start....sleet..and then freezing rain before the warm push is strong enough to push the cold air out down towards the surface.

Cold air damning is the reason for almost every freezing rain situation. Now the latest model on the Euro wants to form another storm off the coast of Maryland/Jersey. If that happens...remember counter clockwise..that means we would have a newer storm now to our east..more cold air and something to watch on the models as we get closer.

This thing reeks of snow..sleet...freezing rain...rain. How much snow/ice is so up to where you are. Certain areas before the changeover could get 6 inches..some a dusting...some might just start out with all sleet.

Will have to keep an eye out for this. The Saturday setup? Im not totally buying into it but it could happen.

 

lol..nah shade..just too much time on my hands sometimes...but thanks very much.

Latest model for Sunday/Monday was a bit colder on every single model so at this point..pretty safe to say someone East of I95 will have a decent period of icing. Looks like everyone starts out as snow in those locations...could even by NYC..but too far off to narrow that down.

Monday morning looks like it might be a mess for many. This is not a huge storm..but enough cold air and about .50 to 1.0 inches of precip would have been a decent snow storm..5 -10". On the other side..switch those numbers to mostly ice and its a nightmare.

There will be locations that stay frozen for most of this storm....not a good thing at all...will probably not even be able to nail down those spots until Saturday night..and that will still be a 25 mile guess.