Football Outsiders: Jets 38% Chance for Making the Playoffs

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by MoWilkNYJ, Oct 23, 2013.

  1. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    You know things will turn around at some point. Soon enough, fumbles will bounce our way. A few guys will make more picks.

    Remaining schedule: @CIN, NO, @BUF, @BAL, MIA, OAK, @CAR, @CLE, @MIA

    Cinci is good this year, but still seems shaky to me. The Saints are the Saints. Buffalo is average. Baltimore is below average this year. Miami is average. Oakland, Carolina, and Cleveland are below average. We could easily win six more games at least. Just depends on how consistent our offense can be. Not that tough a schedule at this point.
     
  2. soxxx

    soxxx Trolls

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    Its going to take 9 wins to get the 6 seed. The Jets need to to go 5-4 over these last 9 games to get in. I believe we are capable of it
     
  3. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    SD has KC x2 and DEN x2 which works in our favor TEN has the tiebreaker on us and with Locker back they get JAX x2, OAK, St. Louis, Arizona, and Houston remaining plus Denver and INDx2. Their schedule is easy looking too.

    Ravens have to end the season @DET, vs NE, @ CIN. I like that tough ending for them, we really need the tiebreaker over them in our head to head.

    Luckily for us the Steelers and Ravens both ave games against NE left. So our WC chances go up if they lose, our division chances go up if they win. Losing to TEN hurts just because they have that tiebreaker
     
  4. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    I think Tennessee has rushed Locker back. He looked awful last week.
     
  5. BakerMaker

    BakerMaker Well-Known Member

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    This is all true but in order to receive the gifts that we got vs a TB or NE we have to put ourselves in a position to accept it.

    Usually those lucky breaks for wins turn up to be the difference. Teams play with much more urgency and confidence at 4-3 than say 2-5 so it is big we have this record early on but of course we cannot get complacent. We won a game we probably should not have at home vs NE so we need one more, which the Bengals, Saints or Ravens present.

    Jets still have a letdown game in them, which may mean a split vs Miami so it is vital we win vs either @ CIN, vs NO or @ BAL....3 games we may very well not be favored at.

    We go 1-2 vs them, we've got a shot. 2-1 would put us in a real driver's seat and 3-0.....seems impossible but man oh man.
     
  6. TutanKhaman

    TutanKhaman Member

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    The patriots are 3 field goals away from not having 3 super bowls.:rofl:
     
  7. Endlessly Counting

    Endlessly Counting Well-Known Member

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    This are by far the truest words ever spoken in sports, maybe in life.
     
  8. soxxx

    soxxx Trolls

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    You cant take away wins in the NFL. The Giants got handed a win in Arizona in 2011 when the referees ruled a call and blew a play dead in which Victor Cruz got back up and fumbled the game away to the Cardinals. The Giants got handed a win by the refs but went on and win the Super Bowl with a 9-7 record.

    All Super Bowl champs are lucky, just look at the past

    Saints- Favre throws a pick
    Packers- Need the Eagles to overcome a 28-7 lead the giants had, if the Giants won that game the Packers do not get in the playoffs
    Giants-Needed a referee to hand them a game in Arizona, if the Giants end up with 8 wins they dont make the playoffs
    Ravens- Needed a a complete secondary meltdown by denver to get in

    In all those cases the Super Bowl Champs were practically dead, as for the 2013 Jets, take the wins and roll with it. Every team in this league catches breaks or overcomes some miraculous odd.
     
  9. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    This all true, but when prediction future success for a team, you have to look at how they won. Closer wins, and two on penalties, has you hesitate if the team will keep that up and their a good team underperforming or a bad team overperforming. When predicting the odds, you can't just say they won and move on, you have to see how they won.

    That's why I think Bradwaysux also looked at TO differential. This and total points is usually a great indicator of future success for a team. Sometimes a team will go all season on a hot/lucky streak us, a lot of times teams will fall back to earth during the season.

    The idea is not to take away wins from the Jets, but see if their previous play is a good indicator going forward to predicting wins. Right now the Jets have 0 convincing wins, that's the way it is. That doesn't mean they have 0 wins, they have 4 wins. The idea is not to throw away wins, but when you try to predict future success of teams, winning 3 games on FGs and two of them set up from opponents penalties doesn't show a very strong team. Maybe we take this and play better, maybe the good luck stays and we ride it like 2010, maybe the luck flips on us. Don't throw away the wins, but realize they aren't the most convincing wins ever.

    That means going forward, predicting for the Jets, I also think 38% and the highest team for the last WC spot seems a tad high for me. I think SDs schedule drops them some, but TEN I think is being a little underrated. GRanted they are a professional website and this is just my opinion, but it's why I think 38% is a little high for right now.

    EDIT: And all Super Bowls require a little luck, but people only remember the luck/good bounces if you take advantage and win the game. You think anyone complains about the tuck rule game if Vinateri goes and misses the FG? What about Pitt making their SBs under Big Ben and not playing NE and Tom Brady each time? What about GB getting the 3rd string CHI QB in the championship game. What happens if Nick Folk misses in 2010 against IND? Imagine if we on the SB in 2009, we got in because IND let us and we beatdown CIN (yes the game was close by we took the lead right when Painter made a critical mistake), Nate Kadeing missed 3 FGs, Shayne Graham missed 2 FGs, kickers were 0-5 against us in the first two rounds. Etc etc. That's why teams like Ravens and Giants were put in an awkward spot. They won a SB with their QB, but their QB was rarely a top 5 QB in the league and definitely not a consistent one, but they won a SB or two with that QB, how do you explain letting that QB walk or not paying that QB?
     
    #29 displacedfan, Oct 23, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2013
  10. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    If we don't beat the Bengals this Sunday, the Jets will need 10 wins no ifs ands or buts. Tie breakers and conference record is EVERYTHING going forward. Maybe you lose one more.
     
  11. displacedfan

    displacedfan Well-Known Member

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    Wins against TB and ATL and losses to TEN and Pitt. I'll take the 4 wins but if we are getting picky, not the best wins to have overall if I could choose 4 wins in the first 7 games :grin:
     
  12. Bob Robbins

    Bob Robbins New Member

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    Early for playoff talk with such an inconsistent team so far. We have a shot though. We can lose the next 2 and still make it IMO. The thing is we will likely lose a game or 2 we shouldn't, so we need to try to win some we don't expect to.

    The Bengals will be a good test. I am hoping for a good showing even if we don't win. We've been bad in our losses and we turn the ball over too much. Turnovers can kill a season. My top 2 hopes for this game are a win and no turnovers by Geno.

    I'm keeping playoffs as a distant hope right now. This team has potential, but they may not reach it in time this year. It will be a fun season regardless!
     
  13. Will-I-Am-Not

    Will-I-Am-Not Well-Known Member

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  14. All Gas No Shake

    All Gas No Shake Well-Known Member

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    good point ... people are writing off the titans too soon
     
  15. JStokes

    JStokes Well-Known Member

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    This is it in a nutshell.

    We have a shot at the last WC spot and we're up against Miami, Titans, Baltimore and SD. Those 2 games against Miami are huge.

    And Pittsburgh plays Oakland this week so I'm not counting them out.

    Totally doable, but not easy.

    _
     
  16. Mayhem

    Mayhem Active Member

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    I know we are all annointing the Pats as division winners, but they look like doody compared to usual. I'm not writing off the division quite yet - lets see where everyone is in two weeks.
     
  17. Mitch_Dumstein

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    the Pats have lost two of their last three games. If they continue to play like doody, division championship possibilities are still in play for the Jets IMO

    The Jets are one game behind the Pats and ahead of both Miami and Buffalo. Of course, if the Pats get back on a winning roll we have NO shot, but there is some evidence that such rolls are becoming less of a possibility than they were when Brady had receivers and not hiting the late 30's wall
     
  18. Green4ever

    Green4ever New Member

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    I'll take 38%. We have to take one of the next two (bengals and saints). Bengals are heavy favorites this week but they are kind of like the bills for us....we always seem to beat them. Think we win by 3 and the defense closes out.
     

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