It's starting to look like the Brady show is nearing the end of its run. Since the injury early in 2008 Tom Brady has gone from being a dangerous QB in the playoffs to being a guy who can and does get beat fairly regularly. It's true that the Patriots defense has been on the decline also over much of that period and so you'd expect the Patriots to lose some games they weren't losing in the early dynasty years. However Brady's performance has been bad enough in a couple of games to prevent the Patriots from having any real chance to win. In 2009 Brady had a real stinker against the Ravens and lost even though Joe Flacco threw just 10 passes on the day for 34 yards. That was the Patriots first one-and-done performance in the playoffs in the Brady/Belichik era. In 2010 Brady had a better game but the Patriots were one-and-done again as Mark Sanchez put together a quietly efficient effort and Brady's late heroics fell short. In 2011 Brady had a matchup he couldn't lose against Tim Tebow and with no pressure on him he had his best playoff game of the post-injury period. A game without which his playoff numbers look below average over the period. Then he matched up against Flacco again and had another stinker but this time the Pats won despite Flacco outplaying Brady. The Super Bowl game against the Giants was decent but Eli Manning had the better day and came away with the win. In 2012 Brady matched up against Matt Schaub in the opener and for just the second time since the injury clearly outplayed his opponent leading the Pats to a win. Then Flacco came to town again and wiped the mat with him, taking the rubber game in their series and giving Brady three bad performances against the Ravens in the playoffs, two of which the Pats lost at home. I'm looking at the last few years and I think Bill Belichik is going to have a shocker in the works for us. Not this year, but in 2014 when Brady is easily cuttable in the last year of his contract. I think Brady's playing for his job in the playoffs this year and if he plays the way he's been playing since the injury Belichik is going to let him go, just like he has with every other star who suddenly looked mortal and had a real price tag attached.
I really hope you are right. Keep in mind that Gronk was out for the Giants (SB) and Ravens (2013 playoffs) losses. If he had played in either game the outcome could have been different.
You think he would cut Brady? I mean I always thought once Brady retired, he would stay, Bill, to show everyone he can win without Brady (although 11-5 with Cassell was impressive). Cutting him would be a major power move and set up a bidding war. Although it does seem recently, Super Bowls are for the young QBs, not the old ones.
If you remove the win against the Broncos and Tebow, a win in which Brady was under no pressure at all with a 14-0 first quarter lead that ballooned to 35-0 at half time, Brady's playoff numbers since 2008 look very average. Overall he's got a 62.5 completion pct for 6.83 YPA, 16 TD's and 10 Int's since 2008. But if you remove that Broncos game, which was a picnic for Brady with no sacks and no pressure put on by the opposing offense, he's at a 60.1 comp pct for 6.33 YPA, 10 TD's and 9 Int's. The Pats are just 2-4 in the other 6 games despite being favored in all of them and at home for all but one. If you remove that game from the pile Brady has been substantially outplayed by the opposing QB's in the matchups. This despite those QB's not being anything special at all and downright weak in some cases. You can make a pretty good argument that the reason the Pats haven't won another Super Bowl over the last 4 years is because Tom Brady isn't good enough to win one for them.
He definitely has morphed into a better regular season QB than playoff QB as of late. We will see what happens the next couple of years. Not sure I buy that Bill would ever cut him
I'm pretty sure Belichik will cut him at the first safe opportunity to do so. By safe I mean he thinks he has the replacement in house and he thinks the Pats (and him) won't get crucified by the Boston media/fans for doing so. If Brady goes on a run in the playoffs next year and the Pats win a Super Bowl then the conversation is moot of course. In that scenario Brady and Belichik retire together along about 2017. The point of reference here is that when you have a QB taking up a 6th of your cap, as Brady does, he damn well better be worth that. Recently he hasn't been worth anything close to that once the regular season ends and most of the opponents are really good. BTW, if Brady suffered a season-ending injury next season I would not expect him to ever play another game for the Patriots.
In my opinion, Brady and the Patriots ownership of the AFC EAST maybe coming to a close, but I believe the Pats may win one more superbowl before it's all said and done. I mean despite the circumstances of key injured players and a few dropped passes in the last superbowl lost the Giants, and missing the superbowl again this year by one game,I don't think the sun is going to set on the Brady Bellicheat empire just yet.
I'd have agreed with you right up to the point that Gronkowski became fragile. Now I think the odds are that the Pats have played in their last Super Bowl of the Brady era. Brady, Welker and Lloyd are all over 30. Gronkowski and Hernandez both have injury histories at this point. That's a lot of downside on that side of the ball for them and they're living and dying on offense at this point.
I know it never happens, but wouldn't Belichik rather try to trade Brady than simply cut him? Also, I just can't see the Pats being that dominant without Brady or a QB of a similar caliber (2008 aside).
You can microanalyze it like that, but fact of the matter is its difficult to sustain success in this league. Rodgers, Brees and Roethlisberger have also had bad losses in the playoffs recently. NE is one defensive stand away from winning that SB in '11 and this thread being void.
Brady's not quite at the end yet. The reason why your argument is compelling is because of the standard that the Patriots have built for themselves. Anything short of Super Bowl rings every year is a failure in New England and that organization needs to be commended for that level of excellence that they've created for more than a decade. If it was any other team and QB then we would be praising their sustained ability to have great regular seasons and being a perennial SB contender. Yet because we've been so spoiled by what Brady and Belichick have done, we actually think that they're slipping. As long as they keep that O Line intact and keep giving Brady some weapons to work with, then he still has another 2 seasons of elite level football left. I think after the 2014 season if they haven't won another SB then this argument will carry more weight. Yet not now, he's still ripping the league up in comparison to almost every other QB. It's just we expect much more out of him. I hate that team and I think he's got a fruitcake personality but I can't deny his greatness. He's had a dominating career.
I hope that is indeed the case. I can see them winning one more but I don't want them to. I think most of the NFL is united in their hatred for the PATS LOL!
Billy Boy's going to be 61 before next season, how long is he even going to want to coach after Brady's gone anyway? And no I don't think even he's a**hole enough to cut Brady. He did it with Bernie Kosar, but that was different, Bernie didn't get him into the HOF.
There may be a lot of downside but the pats were #1 in PPG and YPG last year, and it was by a pretty good margin in both categories. I hope they're dying but it seems unlikely that they're suddenly going to fall off a cliff. 427.9 ypg #2 was 410.9 34.8 ppg #2 was 30.1
The fact that the opposing QBs have been nothing special is irrelevant. Brady matches up against the defense, and the ones he has played poorly against have all been elite. Based on everything that you have highlighted, I think the most obvious conclusion is that the Giants' and Ravens' defenses have Brady's number. It's hard to look at the rest of the data and say that Brady's performance has declined. Sure, he also lost one game against the Jets, but he has also had some very good games in the playoffs, and more importantly, overall he has been a top 3 QB every single season. His struggles against the Giants and Ravens have been the only consistent factor spanning across both the regular season and playoffs, so I don't think it's fair to assume anything else.
Thank you, this thread has compiled a very thorough data set and concurring discussion. I have examined all the parameters in detail. In conclusion; Brady is a faggot, hope belicheat sticks around long enough to retire with the taste of humiliation in his mouth (no doubt from a big jets dick), and fuck the patriots. amen.
you know i was wondering what got him the stick.. i think i found it. its a shame that so many jets fans cling to afc championship games and 11-5 seasons like they never happen and in patsy land they are considered poor years and signs of impending gloom AND something that a backup qb led them to.
Look at the teams that the Patriots have played. Baltimore (x2), Jets (when their defense was tops in the league), Denver and the Giants. I think it's more a fact that he has been playing tough defenses than him deteriorating. The argument that Joe Flacco outplays Brady is silly. Brady was playing against the Ravens defense while Flacco was playing against the Patriots defense. Having said that, Brady needs to start stepping up his game in the playoffs if he wants to solidify his spot as the GOAT.
