This is the actual discussion from the National Weather Service: SEEMS LIKE AT THIS POINT MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 6+ INCHES IF A BAND SETS UP AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS. IF THE MODELS BECOME CLOSER TO 12Z ECMWF...THESE VALUES COULD BE LOWER. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY WATCHES TO BE ISSUED. THERE IS NO, REPEAT, NO MODEL AGREEMENT. So as you can see..this is tricky..very tricky.
I am sticking with the inlaws,,,,,they are batting like 750 or better,,,,,,Jay I await the late nite update,,,,,ps did u just say that one of the models (American model ) lost the storm again ? Pss hope u are feeling better :beer:
lol..yes thats what I said. Want to read something from a very very good source? Here it is...lol...sounds like he has this storm down pat: Therefore, to sum this up, I truly do not know what will happen on Saturday and every possible solution is on the table, from absolutely nothing happening and the storm remaining far out to sea, to a very significant Nor’easter affecting our entire area with blizzard conditions. Well, at least it is interesting. I wish I could do better than that, but at least I am being honest and you are getting an idea of the possibilities. This is a very volatile situation where truly anything is possible. People that do this for a living are really sweating this one..want to know why? They really just want to say "yes the setup is great..yes there should be a storm..and a big one..but no there shouldnt be one because the models havent agreed on anything at all" Problem is if they go that way and you all of a sudden get model agreement less than 24 hours before a big storm, you look like an idiot and do not do your job of warning the public in time. I have no such problems like that..I can just come on here and say oops..I f'ed up. But I havent so far because I havent given a prediction...a true wimp no? lol. Ok...my gut tells me that by now we should have had some agreement and the NYC area will probably not get pounded..but areas north of Conn..into the Gulf of Maine could and should get hammered because eventually this storm will get its act together, I just feel too late for our area. Again, the models will tell the tale starting in about one hour.
Still waiting on the models starting at 1030..and there will be storm but the question is how much. Ok..lets mark the calenders because for the third time this year Im throwing the positive green flag out. We always say lets see what the models say but I have thrown this flag out twice this year. First time was Sandy....one for one. Second time the storm dumped a whopping 2.2 inches...one for two. So now we go over 50% on a very long range prediction. Feb 22-24 there will be a huge snow storm for our area..tell your friends...tell your relatives..and hide the damn children. It will be huge. Ok..today is the 14th so thats around 8 days of warning. Back to this storm..will post one more update at around 11...fingers crossed.
American model just came in and I cant stay up for the Euro so will have new information tomorrow morning but right now...below is a link of the snow potential if the GFS is correct. You can see how close it is to bringing NNJ/NYC snow. With that said, Eastern L.I. is in the game big time...Coastal Conn is in the game big time...Coastal R.I., MASS and my friend who posted from Eastern coastal Maine is really in the game big time. The models are now agreeing that the storm from Eastern L.I. to Coastal Maine will probably happen. Big question is does the storm continue to trend west..to bring the big snows to the big cities. Here is the link...and you can see areas that crushed with the last storm on the coast could get a foot or more out of this one. LINK: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=191477 This map only goes out 78 hours so there will be more snow northward. Good luck!
What do you mean no middle of the nite update ? Lol I tried to go over your head Jay and have googled and looked for the latest euro model update but I cannot find the damn thing. This is what one must do when jay Wayne ain't around to help out :lol: Okay,,,,I look forward to your update and I am pretty confident that the euro along. With the rest will most likely agree with the inlaw model. Lol Hope u are feeling better Jay,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Local guys saying it is still going to be too far out for a big snow,,they say 1 to 3 for me and 3 -6 for Long Island,,,,time to make the doughnuts
Thanks Jay!! I hope we get an another big one. I just hope it don't cancle the hockey game that day. Nothing better then a hockey game, a snownstorm, a skate with the players at the end of the game. On my birthday. Cool.
Jay, how's it looking for Albrightsville, PA tomorrow? Supposed to be playing paintball out there tomorrow and it looks like snow / below 32. Thanks! Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
Paintball below freezing blows chunks. Those things hurt like hell normally but when it's cold it's like getting hit with a marble.
Hey guys...really hammered with the damn sinus infection. On antibiotics for 3 days and I feel like crap. Anyway..sorry for no updates and Im leaving for Windham NY tonite. So I may not be able to update much tonight. But the locals mets have it covered well and the storm is still blowing up a bit east too far right now. Will keep an eye out for this but right now...looks like the coast gets beat up a bit and then as you go north..the coast gets beat up even more. Will post in a bit.
I'm actually excited for it. I find cold / snow much more fun than the alternative and always wanted to play with snow falling. As for the marbles, bring it on! Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
Ski Windham or at least hang out and have a beverage at the lodge :beer: but be careful young man you are on medication ! Well got a coating of snow last nite, nothing for the kids or myself to get excited about:sad: I am not sure if this keeps the inlaws batting average up there but it did snow. Feel better Jay and enjoy the weekend that goes for the rest of you as well:up:
Just a quick check in beAutiful Windham nothing much but continue to see huge snowstorm next weekend see ya tomorrow
Snow in SC, a damn blizzard going for hours and its 37 degrees, it didn't stick to anything. What a waste. I feel so cheated.
Its pouring snow, thunder and lightning. Can't see shit, white everywhere, snow blowing sideways. Not used to this in the south, already saw an ambulance fly by.
Still snowing, for 10 hours now. It didn't start sticking to anything until 2 hours ago. I have never seen so much snow before, if it had stuck there would be over a foot outside. Damn shame. So Jay, is this storm heading north now? If it is, I hope you guys have shovels ready.
