A Revis Trade Mock Offseason

Everything is explained in the following two posts, but just a quick cap because that is a lot of reading:

Panthers trade: RB Jonathan Stewart, LB Jon Beason, 2nd round pick
Jets trade: CB Darrelle Revis, RB Bilal Powell

Jets cut: Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Eric Smith, Jason Smith, Tim Tebow (savings are in a link below, but many many millions and gives us good cap room with the Revis trade to make some FA signings)

Jets sign:
strongside OLB Cliff Avril $$$
RT Phil Loadholt $$
QB Alex Smith $

Jets draft:
1) Jarvis Jones, weakside OLB, UGA (natural weakside 3-4 OLB, great pair with Cliff Avril and our LBs are now Avril, Jones, Harris, Beason)
2a) Barrett Jones, OG, UGA (I want DJ Fluker as our RG who can play RT in a pinch, but I assume he is gone. Jones can play RG from Day 1 and can play center if Mangold gets hurt. Key to have a high quality back up center and someone can slide in at RG)
2b) Eric Reid, FS, LSU (not Ed Reed, but we get a Reid at safety. Very good free safety, a better version of Harrison Smith, big need)
3) Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall (not a sexy name but do your homework on him. 6'3 205 lbs, natural receiver, high effort, good blocker to boot)
4) TJ McDonald, SS, USC (he, Robert Lester, and B. Rambo could all be here, but McDonald has the highest upside. Great athlete with good potential. Natural SS for us, great young pairing with high upside with Reid)
5) Tyrann Mathieu, CB/RS, LSU (his value for us is just as much as a return man as a slot CB. We have Cro and Wilson outside, but now also have Mathieu and a healthy Aaron Berry inside. Key for remaining a top pass defense. High upside interior defender, big upside as a punt returner where we've been terrible since Leon left)
6) Michael Williams, TE, Alabama (not flashy, but a big guy who has natural hands and is a great blocker. Would start for us, which says more about how bad our TE spot is than his own talent. We can target a higher upside TE in the next draft, but we need to re-establish the run if we are going to have Sanchez or Smith at QB).

So we re-establish one of the top O-Lines in the league, bring in a great RB for a team that will need to cut a lot of high quality players if it doesn't make a creative trade to get some value (explained below), re-tools the front 7 of our defense to have tremendous speed and athleticism but more importantly tremendous skill at each position, and cements a long standing need at both safety spots.

2014 Needs: QB, TE

This team, despite an infusion of talent, could still end up with a Top 10 pick because of the QB play. We can make a major trade up for Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel or even Logan Thomas if he has a rebound year, but there are also some great TE options in the 2014 draft led by Austin Seferian-Jenkins. If we could come away with one of those QBs and ASJ at TE.....we really don't have any other team needs.

 

Let me clarify with: I hope we can rectify things with Revis and he stays on the team for the long-term. He's our only elite player and when healthy, if we ever make it back to the playoffs, he will be a key in our success as he can take the likes of Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, AJ Green, Reggie Wayne, or Demaryius Thomas entirely out of a game.

But, it seems that we are set on trading Revis to the highest bidder before the season begins (a re-injury would be disastrous as he'd have 0 trade value and we couldn't tag him in the offseason).

With that being said, I've taken some time to look at teams in the NFL that match up well for a Revis trade. Obviously they need to have a need at CB, and I've eliminated teams without viable trade assets in players. I've also for ignored all AFC teams as I don't think we want to move our stud to a team in the same conference who could keep us from going to a Superbowl in his career.

The #1 team that seems like the best fit is the Carolina Panthers. Yes, the Panthers are currently in cap hell. BUT, when we start taking players off of their hands and they cut their own albatross contracts, the following trade works. Let me first explain the rationale.

The Panthers have two very good RBs, to "big" RB contracts. But most of their guaranteed "bad" money has gone in the first year of their deal and they are easier to move. We desperately need a RB. Secondly, the Panthers have an atrocious defense at every position EXCEPT for LB. They are stacked at LB. I believe they saw their upcoming cap situation, identified WLB Thomas Davis and MLB Jon Beason as guys they could cut this offseason if they needed to (Beason has been talked about as a potential cut candidate) so they drafted MLB Luke Kuechly in the 1st round last year. Their LB core all season with WLB Davis, MLB Kuechly, and underrated and affordable SLB James Anderson was very good. Every other position was really bad. Calling up the Panthers for a trade here would in a sense be saying "Hey guys, we know you have a cap problem and will need to cut some talented guys. We can work out a trade however where we take some of the guys off your hands for Revis, your biggest defensive need, for a couple guys we like and a draft pick. Thus bringing you under the cap, while better equipping you to contend in the NFC South vs. Julio and Roddy, Marques and Moore, and VJax and Mike Williams."

In this scenario, the Panthers can keep Chris Gamble and bring on Revis, but they've also been rumored to be needing to cut Gamble, so to save even more money they can re-sign Revis and take a CB with their #1 pick (Dee Milliner). Yes, I said #1 pick because we're going to get their high #2 pick along with some players like the Champ Bailey deal.

Panthers trade: RB Jonathan Stewart, LB Jon Beason, 2nd round pick
Jets trade: CB Darrelle Revis, RB Bilal Powell

As I touched on above, the Panthers will have to either cut several players this offseason (Gamble, Beason, and maybe D-Will) if they do not move them for value. Beason also lost his starting job to Kuechly as the MLB, and while he would make a studly 4-3 WLB they already have a very good one in Thomas Davis who is signed for much cheaper. You can google ESPN articles saying the Panthers may be forced to cut Beason.
The RB part is a bit more of a stretch imo, and we may have to take on D-Will instead of Stewart, but I'm hoping Idzik would be able to negotiate this. Stewart had some health troubles last year and D-Will had some success, and Jerry Richardson LOVES D-Will. Powell can backup D-Will, that's the only reason he is involved.

In the middle of a 3-4 defense, I truly believe Jon Beason can be a Patrick Willis or Navorro Bowman or Daryl Washington type of player. Just a true stud. And he's on a long term deal such that we won't have to worry about not having him around. Same for Jonathan Stewart, who I believe has Top 5 RB talent when healthy. He needs to be in a power scheme though, and the Panthers use a shotgun offense that will now be utilizing some read option elements. The Panthers offense is fine in the hands of Newton, Williams, Smith, and Olsen and they can use draft picks to add cheap affordable talent around them.

Now, before the draft, we have our stud RB and our defensive line up now features David Harris and Jon Beason in the middle of our D.

We cut Bart Scott and save the millions, goes without question. DeMario Davis can sub in for Harris on passing downs and will be groomed to take over for him and pair with Beason in a very athletic ILB duo.

While adding Beason and Stewart brings in "big" contracts, it actually saves us around $6-8 million in cap space from the projected $20 million cap hit Revis would have. Cutting Scott gives us another $7 million in cap space, cutting Calvin Pace gives us another $8.5 million in cap space, and OT Jason Smith saves us $12 million in cap space. Cutting Eric Smith also saves us $3 million. For cap savings info: http://thejetsblog.com/nyjets/jets-expected-to-cut-calvin-pace-bart-scott/

So now we actually have cap space to sign a free agent or two, and here is my take:

1) Sign OLB Cliff Avril. This will likely be around a first year cap hit of $6 million, and we will spread the rest out over several years after Mark Sanchez and his albatross contract is gone. Avril, a LB/DE from Purdue who went to Detroit, would imo be a dominant strongside OLB in our 3-4. He has exceptional athleticism, is strong vs the run, and has experience playing linebacker. I'm a huge Avril fan and have always wanted him to end up in a 3-4 as a strongside OLB....so for this mock I'm making it happen.

2) Sign RT Phil Loadholt. Loadholt has improved every season in the league, and was rated the #2 run blocking RT in the league last year by PFF on a block-win-lose basis, so he wasn't helped by any of AP's stats. The Vikings aren't going to franchise tag him, and AP wants him to stay, but he'll hit the open market and we may be able to steal him away. Gosder Cherilus is a fine back up option, as he had a pretty good year in Detroit and they took Reiff last year planning for his departure.

3) Sign QB Alex Smith. Smith will be released by the 49ers, and in a fair fight he would beat Sanchez for the starting QB job. Most other teams seem set to draft a young QB that need one, so Smith would take close to the vet minimum to come in and take a starting job. A mil or two should get it done since there is residual money from the 49ers contract.

Now we have a RT locked into our lineup, and a very athletic strongside OLB. Our front 7 just got much more athletic with the additions of Beason and Avril and substractions of Bart Scott and Calvin Pace. And we have a QB competition with Sanchez and Smith and I believe Smith wins.

 

Time for the draft:

1) Jarvis Jones, OLB, UGA
This pick almost seems cemented in stone if Jones is available, and it looks like he may be. Werner and Moore should be ahead of him as pass rushers, a pair of OTs should as well, a QB or two, maybe OG Warmack, DT Star from Utah, Dee Milliner could also go ahead of our #9 pick, and Ezekial Ansah, Alec Ogletree and even Dion Jordan could be big time risers because of the combine. But Jones would be an ideal weakside 3-4 OLB in our defense. He and Avril would make a great tandem on the sides, and Harris and Beason in the middle would give our defense a whole new look in 2013. I think if Jones is gone we may need to reach a few picks for Dion Jordan, but Jordan is also ideally suited for the weakside 3-4 OLB role opposite of Avril.

2a) Barrett Jones, OG, Alabama
I would take DJ Fluker if he were available, but I think he may get taken in the late 1st round. I think Fluker could be a stud RG in the NFL, but Jones can as well and he also provides insurance for Mangold if he's injured as he can slide inside to center exceptionally well. Our offensive line is now once again a major team strength.

2b) Eric Reid, FS, LSU
Rex Ryan finally gets a "Reid" at safety in NY, although he isn't Ed. We desperately need two new safeties because it doesn't seem like Landry is coming back. The cuts and Revis trade allow us to be able to re-sign him, but even so we need a safety. I'm assuming we don't bring him back. Reid is a better version of last year's top safety, Harrison Smith, and makes a great fit in the back end of our defense.

3) Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall
The Randy Moss comparisons are being floated because of his school, but those are misguided. Dobson is much closer to Anquan Boldin as a 6'3, 205 lbs WR with 4.5 speed, exceptional route running, a good run blocker, and great hands and body control. Check out his NFL Draft Scout profile in which he is described as:

Dobson is a great compliment to Stephen Hill for the long term, and for Santonio Holmes and Kerley in the short term. He's kind of a younger Braylon Edwards in what he would bring to the Jets as an all-around good player who can make big plays for us.

There could be some other WRs available here that will be interesting: Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, Da'Rick Rodgers, Quinton Patton, Marquise Goodwin, and Stedman Bailey. Can't go wrong with Dobson, Patton, or Hunter, and Rodgers has talent but isn't a great character add to this team.

4) TJ McDonald, SS, USC
There should be some very good strong safeties available here: TJ, Robert Lester, B. Rambo, and some small school guys like J.J. Wilcox. Of the lot, I like McDonald's upside as he has natural ability on playing the ball in the air. He goes for the big hit like many USC safeties before him, but as an athlete he is superior and in Senior Bowl practices showed the ability to intercept passes from this year's top lot of QBs on deep balls. A young, cheap pairing of Eric Reid and TJ McDonald on the back end of our defense is a HUGE upgrade over what we are accustomed to at safety.

5) Tyrann Mathieu, CB/RS, LSU
This is the one year project Rex gets at CB. More importantly in my opinion we have a return man that we desperately need. A CB like Robert Alford who is a little bit older but is a very good return man is also an option here -- Alford starred in Senior Bowl practices and as a return man in the game. But Mathieu offers a dynamic skill set as a returner, and we had 0 value in our special teams in this regard. Mathieu also has some potential as a nickel CB in our defense, playing inside Cromartie and Kyle Wilson or Aaron Berry if he is healthy. A 4 CB set of Cro, Wilson, Berry, and Mathieu could be very good especially with the rest of our defense.

6) Michael Williams, TE, Alabama
Williams is an uninspiring TE, but he is a great run blocker and he has natural hands. He is going to run a terrible 40 and with the league moving in a passing direction he may even fall to the 7th round. He is a worse version of Pettigrew, by a good margin, but he'd probably start on our team. Next to our revamped OL, Williams would make us one of the best running teams in the league again. He could also be a safety valve for the QB, and Cumberland and Hayden Smith can function as a receiving TE and a developmental TE.

For now I will leave out pick 7, it is too far out to project them. We could use a backup QB, a big bodied DT as depth at NT, or a high upside project at any position. We could also go for a punter or a kicker.

~~~new depth chart~~~

QB: Alex Smith/Mark Sanchez
RB: Jonathan Stewart/Joe McKnight
FB: Jon Conner
TE: Michael Williams/Jeff Cumberland
LT: D. Ferguson
LG: B. Moore
C: N. Mangold
RG: B. Jones
RT: P. Loadholt
WR: Holmes, Hill, Dobson, Kerley
___________________________
LDE: Muhammed Wilkerson
NT: Pouha/Ellis
RDE: Quinton Coples
weakside OLB: Jarvis Jones
ILB: Davis Harris
ILB: Jon Beason
strongside OLB: Cliff Avril
CB: Cromartie, Wilson, Berry, Mathieu
FS: E. Reid
SS: TJ McDonald

RS: Mathieu
K/P: TBD

 

I appreciate the thoughtful responses:

I think if he was forced to choose between going to the AZ Cardinals and being put in the same situation as in San Fran (draft a high QB, play until he is ready or get pipped like Matt Flynn by Russell Wilson from Day 1) or come to NY and be the starting QB, he would take the starting job and $2 million. That's just my opinion. And I think he's a much better QB than Sanchez. Smith is underrated, he has good athleticism and a fine arm. A power running game and a great defense got him to the Champ Game in the NFC last year and would have gone to the Superbowl and probably won if not for Kyle Williams.

He gets the same run game, maybe better with Stewart and the O-Line, and defense.

I don't think we'd go with all picks, just because we could bust on all the picks and then what do we have to show for Revis? We have the leverage to get at least one young very good player in addition to a pick. When the Redskins traded Champ Bailey they got Clinton Portis about to hit his prime and a 2nd round pick. That's what I'm aiming for here.

If the Panthers weren't in their cap situation, I would agree with you on the value of Beason and J Stew being too high. But it looks like they are going to have to cut Chris Gamble, Jon Beason, and DeAngelo Williams if no other moves are made. They are severely over the cap. This is from Pat Yasinkas, the ESPN NFC South writer: http://nfltraderumors.co/panthers-could-be-forced-to-cut-a-number-of-players-this-offseason/

The Panthers may have to release Stewart, Beason, Godfrey, and Gamble just to make cap and don't forget they will have to re-sign Cam Newton when his rookie deal is up in not too long.

So this trade actually helps them out a little bit: they have to get rid of players anyway, so why now bring in one of the elite CBs for a few players who are hurting their cap situation and they can cut the others.

The Panthers offense is fine without Stewart, and on defense they have been fine without Beason. If they use their 1st rounder on a DT like Lotulelei, and add Revis to take out WRs like Julio Jones, Marques Colston, and Vincent Jackson....that D will be much improved and the Panthers could end up as a contender on those two moves alone.

Avril may cost "a fortune" as a free agent, but only a pittance compared to what Revis wants and we actually save money by moving Revis and picking up these FAs. One NFL analyst said if we traded Revis we could afford signing Mike Wallace, Phil Loadholt, and Peyton Hillis. My version has us not giving megabucks to Wallace and instead to Cliff Avril, and instead of Hill we bring in the bigger contracts of Beason and JStew and cut Scott and Pace et al.

If you really look at the numbers and what could happen with the Panthers cutting these players for zero value, it begins to make much more sense.

 

You are right on Beason, which is why the Panthers may cut him and also because of his contract. But his teammate came back from THREE ACL tears to have a very productive season (Thomas Davis) so I have faith in Beason being able to return to his old form.

Beason at 85% is sadly better than Bart Scott at 120%, and imo better than David Harris. So Beason and Harris make a fine duo, with DeMario Davis as a guy who should be able to step in for either one in year 2.

I don't know why you don't like Jonathan Stewart, he's a stud in my eyes. The Panthers aren't going to run an offense that caters to his strengths, and the offense we are going to run with Marty as OC and Rex as head coach begs for a RB that can do what JStew can. Go back and look at his draft profile coming out of Oregon. If he were in this draft he'd be a Top 10 pick, I truly believe that. Maybe the Rams or Cardinals or Jags. He's a brick of a RB with great speed and great agility, with very good hands to boot (was functioning as 3rd down back in Carolina despite his Top 15 pick status because the owner loves DWill).

JStew reminds me of Larry Johnson being drafted in the 1st round by the Chiefs who had Priest Holmes (DWill in this scenario). Once Holmes went down and retired, Larry Johnson was the best RB in football. They have similar power running styles and great speed, but JStew is a better receiver. And he's just entering his prime. I think this is a steal and I don't think the Panthers would do it. They'd probably ask us to take DWill.

And in regards to Avril, we can't sign him right now because of the money BUT if we move Revis we will be able to. ESPN put something out saying if we traded Revis we could use his cap money to sign Mike Wallace, Phil Loadholt, and Peyton Hillis. That's just from moving Revis and not taking into account the millions saved by cutting Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, Jason Smith, Eric Smith, etc. This team can be turned around talent-wise (except for QB for a year) if Idzik does it right because we can have cap room and make some moves.

Avril is a perfect fit as a strongside OLB in our 3-4. I really hope this goes down.

 

2. Revis is also an injury risk for any team taking him on. So people who say "x is a an injury risk. Just say no." That's kind of dumb to me, and also the conservative approach that will keep this team in the dumpster. Low risk, high reward. If he doesn't work out, which I think he will big time, we can just cut him. Same thing as cutting Bart Scott, but he's 100x the player Scott is.

1. https://twitter.com/NFLDraftBible/status/294522308440256513

I think everyone who thinks the Jets can't be players in free agency aren't really thinking this through. Right now, we can't be. If we trade Revis, we can.

We aren't trading Revis because we are over the cap and can't find any other way to get down. We can cut all of the players I mentioned above and sign a player to a reasonable deal and keep him. But if he wants $16 mil a year, we can't afford to give that to one player next offseason. All of those, and that $16 mil spread out in cap hits that equal less than $16 million (Wallace = $5 for next year, Loadholt = $5 for next year, Hillis $1 for next year)

After next year we are in the clear because we can cut Sanchez and Holmes and literally save $30 million.

Because we can't franchise tag Revis, as part of his deal, we need to move him because he won't resign with us. It's the 2013 cap that really fucks us.

I hope people understand that. If Revis would take $8 or $9 mil for 2013 on a backloaded deal, we'd be fine. But we're anticipating he wants at least $16 mil per year, and we can't make that deal for the first year. We also can't do $10 in the first year and $21 in the second year to make it up. But other FA's on good deals which are still "cashing it in" like Loadholt who could make $5 mil then $6 then $7 then $8, and Wallace who could have the same progression -- would be fine.

 

We can make the trade and take on Beason and JStew and be under the cap after those cuts. We are really only in salary cap hell for one year -- this is overstated by the media. Idzik and co. have a plan to rebuild the team, and it's probably to play out the year with a bad team, cut Sanchez and Holmes next offseason when we can, and we'll have a ton of free cap space and draft picks, plus this draft class, to bring in the right FA and build a talented team.

What we can't do is pay Revis next season $16 million, because then we can't have a team. We'd be stuck with this horrible team + Revis. And we can't franchise tag Revis by his contract.

We can pay Beason and JStew and Avril and Loadholt a combined cap hit of $15 mil in the first two years and backload them when we can spread the money that was used on Santonio and Sanchez to them. That's about an extra $5 mil per player. We'd have a ton of young talent as well with the several high draft choices from trading Revis, and we'd have a chance at having a heck of a team.

If there is one move that is being too greedy, then it's getting Loadholt and we don't have to get him. I think we may end up signing Vernon Carey anyway now that he's staking a comeback to plug into RG, which would make that 2nd pick in this mock DJ Fluker instead of Barrett Jones. I want Fluker there anyway, but it may be slight wishful thinking. Austin Howard is okay, and maybe he can be a decent player like Doug Free was out of nowhere for a little bit, but I'd rather get a top shelf OT to pair with D'Brick and guarantee a dominating line for our run game and QB.