Just another quick update. The storm for next week was looking like a rain storm but not so fast. The latest models showed much colder air hanging on. Another thing with the Friday storm is I mentioned the high snow ratios. While many are predicting 5-8 inches just imagine what that really means. Because of the very cold air in place that means this storm will only produce less than a half inch of precip. If this storm could get its act together a bit more..and produce a solid 3/4 to an inch of precip...we could be looking at over a foot of snow easily for many. Thats what I want to see with tonites models...a bit more merging and a bit more precip. Doesnt take much with these cold temps. Locally central and south Jersey are getting some white stuff tonite. Does not look like any will make this far north tonite.
Well, for those that want snow...lets hope the first big model that came out tonite is wrong...the GFS American model just came out and showed a much weaker storm..a trend? Im not sure where that just came from but it showed about half the amounts predicted. Bad run? We shall see. But if the Euro that comes out in an hour leans that way....hopefully just a bad run.
two sets of models showing two different things. The Euro and British models show a huge storm..and the american models showing a lighter storm. Im sticking with the europeans damn it...lol...6-12. Will be on later tonite to give full details
Interesting how the local news is not commenting on the Friday storm yet. Weather channel just says chance of significant snow. Just heard on CBS news radio... "chance" of snow Friday. How lame.
Well...as long as you have division with the models...its not really lame but I hear you. Bad news though...and if this turns out to be true this would be a major coup for the GFS american model. The Euro swung that way today. It was one model run and Im always guilty of jumping on a model run but if its true...this will be a nice little winter event not a huge event. Really sucks...but its one model run. If the Euro shows at 1am tonite the same thing...its game over..but I have seen this before...models lose a major part of a storm for a run or two.
Jay talk me in buddy,,,I am out on the ledge,,,,,the week started off great with Brady and company sucking it up against the ravens ,,,,,let's end the week on a high note,,,give the kids some good snow news about Friday we want another 3 day weekend :lol:
There are so many reasons this sucks if the models do not correct themselves. Mentioned before that my wife and boys will be gone for 4 days so I was going to bachelor out and really chill and track. Cant really doing that when you are running everyone to basketball practice and weight training for football and being the best damn husband you can be...lol. Still will chill and if there is a God...this model mayhem will change for the better but heres whats happening: You have heard me mention how this storm would be so unusual because of the really cold temps..which inturn would cause very high snow ratios. Well..really cold air supresses storms too of course...and thats whats happening. As my buddy jilozzo had mentioned about phasing of the Jets...the southern Jet is not being allowed to be tapped into...which cuts off a moisture flow from the Gulf of Mexico...very important with big noreasters. Also, the timing..the storm has slowed its entrance to the west coast so even the Pac jet merging with the northern jet doesn't happen until out over the Atlantic. So what you end up is with a FISH STORM. Very popular phrase in the weather circles. The storm gets its act together but out over the waters..for the FISH. It then does what it should..turns up the coasts and grazes eastern LI and Cape Cod..but too late for many. Now, the storm still comes through and dumps what most Alberta clippers dump..storms that form in central Canada and swing through..perhaps 2-4 inches. But the secondary storm forms way too late. Now...the Japanese model and the Canadian model still see a great storm for us. But when the American Model and the European Model start to agree..its a tough call. Have I seen situations where the models lose the storm only to find them a day later? Hundreds of times. So lets see if tonites models pick up on them again or start to hint back that way. American Model 1030 pm European model 100 am. I will follow both.
The uncertainty of the weather... well, it just struck me one reason it's so interesting...sometimes right up until the event, you never know for SURE. My analogy... like a good murder mystery, it leads you one way... then turns, but often comes right back to who you thought did it in the first place. The twists and turns of these models remind me of that. We have our own Columbo... jaywayne.
I want more cold weather! Are we done for that down here Jay? We had like 2 awesome cold days and thats it...BS these weather changes...
Accuweather calling for 2-4" for us here in SoCenPA. Not enough to fire up the Ariens but at least enough to salt the driveway. Anyone wanna buy a snowblower that's only been used once?
Jay I just moved closer to the edge :sad: Ugh if you get some good news for us tonigh post it. IF you can,,,,,,otherwise let me say in advance this sux. Ps I know the euro model is usually good and the U S model ain't so hot,,,how are those other 2 models ? Japanese and Canadian any good ? More reliable than ours? Cman maybe u can make a coffe table or something else out of that ariens ,,,,hopefully u. Get to fire that bad boy up on Friday :beer:
So far, its doing a bang up job of taking up space in my garage (not to mention giving my wife something else to beat me over the head with). :beer:
You KNOW if you didn't have that Ariens, a week later... white out blizzard with 3 feet of snow! I bought mine last year and haven't used it yet. I KNOW once I move to the Poconos, I'll be usin that sucker... probably more than I want to. The current owners of "my" new house have a contractor plowing the driveway. It's almost 100' long. I'll be getting my $'s worth out of my Ariens at some point! Closing on the chalet 1/31... moving in full time on 2/28. Cman.... yer gonna thank yer lucky stars you have that machine... sooner before later!
With all the bad news...cracking up with these posts..and how true TBJ!! Sell it if you want snow. Man..been doing this for a long time and every storm or non storm has a story but I have never ever seen anything like this. You could see reasons for models losing storms but almost EVERY ingredient needed for a storm is in place and now the GFS American model shows a storm that enters around San Fran....and slowly but surely falls apart to the point that now..by the time it hits the East coast..its almost gone? The euro comes out at 1am. Now..if you want to find a silver lining....after I saw what I saw...I visited some pro met sites and they are flabbergasted. All the Jets are in play but the next frame they all do the wrong thing. Did Woody by the weather? Perhaps when he wanted to pass on Tebow and was talked into it...he bought the weather models instead. Now..again...the reason as CMAN saw 2-4 is because the pros are just not buying what they should be putting..and thats a chance of flurries..because thats whats showing up. Lets see what happens at 1am tonite because if the Euro does a swan dive off this storm..its done. Real bad news is that there is nothing in site after this storm.
