Serious Question for the Haters (you know who you are)

Nice stats. Where are they from ?

 

Since you asked nicely... (and the question is something I myself pondered before...)

I think the biggest difference between the rookie year and the drop off from the following year is...

The element of surprise. Teams really underestimated jsut how much he was willing to run, and when they caught him, it wasn't like catching the typical QB. It was like wrestling a full back. Bet that was kind of a shock when people have made careers out of chasing quarterbacks that were finger tackled.

The first 3 games in his rookie year, teams really treated him like any other rookie and didn't account for how... "different" he would be. None of the teams he faced were that great. the Raiders and San Diego seemed to be going through the motions. That didn't look like the same San Diego team to me in that last game as the one that stomped the broncos for the last few years. I think the 3 teams were really caught off guard by him, didn't really know what to make of him. They beat Houston, but I once read and article that over the last 15 years, of the 474 defenses that were played over that time, Houston's passing defense that year would have ranked 474th, or dead last. in 15 years of 32 teams (minus a few since part of that goes into an era prior to the Browns and Texans existing.) OUCH!!!

Also if you look at Tebow's stats, particularly in the running category, you will see he was almost TWICE as productive as he was in the last 5 games or so. Particularly when Fox scrapped the "traditional" vanilla offense after the Detroit game and went to the read option. Raiders NEVER saw it coming and it killed them. the following week, they ran the ball 55 times against Kansas City. His production was really low against Miami and Detroit because they were running the Orton offense.

I think in part is that teams wised up, and stopped blitzing him. Too many guys were getting behind him and he'd be gone through the line with nothing but the secondary to catch him 10 yards down the field. more and more teams started running containment schemes like you would a punt or kickoff... stay in your lane, some focused on the RB, some focused on the other RB...(errr QB I guess.)

That worked because... teams also noted that Tebow was VERY shaky when passing.

After that, production went WAY down. You can see it plain as day if you sat through the last 5 games (playoffs included.) For whatever reason, Pittsburgh committed to that a bit too much on a few key plays. They'd shut Tebow down much of the game too, but Thomas was having an easier time getting open against Ryan Clark's replacement. (Clark out since he can't play at Mile high due to sickle cell.)

Minnesota got burned too taking that philosophy a bit too far. Still gotta cover receivers as even Tebow will hit guys from time to time, especially when they are wide open.

Aside from Minnesota and Pittsburgh, (which I'm sure they now fully understand what went wrong) I would say the league has figured out Tebow and what to do to stop his offenses.

The element of surprise really paid off during the middle of his 11 games. But I believe it is gone now, and future starts will look more like his last 5 or 6 games than they did before that. ....that is... UNLESS he improves his passing. That is what is killing him and the whole league knows it. Unless he improves the passing, I seriously doubt lightning will strike twice the way it did for the cinderella season last year. Even with the element of surprise, it was BARELY enough against several of the teams, not one of them with a winning record until Pittsburgh. 3 of those games even went to OT. (Miami, San diego, Chicago.)

 

That's because you are allergic to logic.

Just keep believing Tebow is the greatest thing ever, and pretty soon he might even get off the bench. Not likely though.

 

I'm pretty sure you could spend a week searching the forum and you won't find one person who said that.

 

YOU, of all people, accusing someone else of being allergic to logic ?


BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAA


Now THAT'S HILARIOUS !!

 

Pot meet kettle. :rofl:

 

Yeah, no kidding.

 

I didn't read it because it was way too long and you have made your opinion painfully and extensively clear about ten million times so why keep reading. If it had been short I probably would have read it though.

 

What's your point?

 

I'm biased, but I thought this was a well thought out argument. I think even people on the other side can agree this is a well written argument, but as I see from the responses the other side didn't feel like reading.

 

Someone asked a serious question to the "haters", asked for a serious answer, and I gave it... free of jabs at the other side and all. That was the tone JFjets had in his post, and I matched it, just as I always had. He asked for opinion backed with evidence... but you know these guys... their attention span only goes for about as much reading as expected in a green eggs an ham book. Maybe I could have put pictures in for them.

...and these are the same people who tell me that "I" am not interrested in a conversation. There is no end to the hypocrisy of the Tebow crowd, just another day in camelot for them.

Perhaps one day they will listen to reason and actually understand why the object of their affection is getting splinters in his ass from sitting on the bench. his struggles, and teams exploiting those struggles makes far more sense than some man crush Rex might have on Sanchez, don't you think? The above is nothing new. They've been acting like a kid who had his toy taken away ever since Tebow was dealt from Denver and placed on the bench behind... Not Aaron Rodgers, not Tom Brady, not Peyton Manning, not Ben Rapelisberger... But Mark Sanchez.

 

Hated the last two stats. The conservative run run run or running on 3rd and 5+. I hated Fox for his predictability.

Anyone have stats for 3 and outs for strictly passing stats?

 

What answer doesn't get the poster verbally attacked?

 

Interesting stats that tell quite a story about the difference in style between McDaniels and McCoy/Fox.

Also valid points made by Concerned C. It's hard to tell which is the chicken or the egg. Did Fox hold Tebow back or did Tebow hold Fox back? Or to make everyone happy...both? Tebow was either brilliant or crap last year. His game is a direct correlation to how people feel about him...love him or hate him.

Personally I could see Tebow benefiting from an offensive scheme like what Washington runs. The main problem being is that Tebow isn't getting an opportunity to showcase whether he can handle it or not.

Maybe he'll get another shot one day. But it won't be for Rex. Tebow isn't Rex's guy...Sanchez is. Rex isn't going to put his job and career on the line for the unknown. Neither Tebow haters or lovers can convince me the outcome of how he would play if a team went "all-in" with him. Would he thrive in a system completely built around him? Or would he crash and burn? We may never find out. But it's sure fun to debate it.

 

The problem with that statement, is by the time Tebow was put into the games, McDaniels was already fired and the playcalling was done by..... McCoy for the most part.

He was also calling the plays for the following season, and he DID call for a lot more passing in the Orton era. That went down subatantially after the switch and we saw the Miami game and the Detroit game go the way they did. Part of the reason I believe the playcalling changed the way it did. Cuz had they have stuck with the offense they ran under Orton, there's little doubt in my mind they would have lost more games and missed the playoffs.

Actually, I think he might actually succeed with a team that does go "all-in" with him.

The problem is, I don't see that team out there that is going to do this. Not with more young QBs coming up in the draft. Especially if it won't require a massive overhaul to make it work. Another couple years, Tebow will be approaching that age where he should be getting close to the prime of his career. He has been in three years, and none of the coaching staffs seemed interrested in his development. He'd be brought in more as a stop gap at that stage of his career if not as a backup while they drafted someone younger to develop to their style.

Josh McDaniels probably planned on it when he drafted him. after all, he drafted Tebow after an 8-8 season. Tebow was seen as a three year project. They'd just extended Orton for another year... McDaniels was probably thinking he had the three years it was going to take to develop him. Probably would have had something in mind for the upcoming offseason.

...unfortunately, McDaniels got fired a few months into that first season. Circumstances forced him to be out there before he was really ready for it and his passing game really suffered in part because of that. The next coaching staff didn't care for him, and his current team seems to be taking a similar approach.

I also find it telling that not a lot of teams seem to be offering up their first born to get him on their team. Really? 2 teams offered a 4th. You'd think a guy who allegedly did all that stuff Tebowners think he did would command more respect around the league. You'd think they'd be tripping over themselves to get that guy. Losing his job is understandable because of Manning, right? After all, did you see what the Broncos got when they got rid of Cutler? (Too bad they did nothing with what they got.)

 

That's right...McDaniels was gone when Tebow came in. Good point.

Also a good point that teams aren't jumping all over it to get him. Again, though, I'd like to think that has more to do with the "unknown" than it does his actual talent level. Tebow is the ultimate risk/reward. And the NFL is the ultimate when it comes to conservatism.

The Broncos were in the perfect position to start Tebow last year. They didn't care about Orton and they didn't really care too much if they lost all their games once they went 1-3.

The Jets are NOT in the same position. Rex honestly feels Sanchez is his best chance to win. And he's not willing to throw Sanchez under the bus as easily as Fox was with Orton. Maybe Rex does feel Tebow is at least good enough to be the #2 (as evident by last weekend's game), but he doesn't want Tebow to win a game or two and then have the fans/media/ownership dictate to him who has to be his starter. Completely understandable from his point of view.

 

They arent tripping over themselves because at best he produces average numbers (yardage wise). He is better than a Sanchez or a Gabbert but you have to change your whole offense to commit to him.

Could he be successful under those conditions? Sure. Will teams want to make that sacrifice for average production? Probably not. It is way easier to stick with someone who is coventional, and if you really want to run read option you pray that you can draft a guy who can throw well along with the running like cam or rg3.