I don't know if someone can find the stat I was trying to compose for this thread, but I'll put it in the table, along with my theory and maybe someone can find it. My belief is that the total number of points for all games has increased every season for the last 10 years. Defense does not win you football games anymore, it inherently can't anymore because of the extra padding the offense gets in the passing game or hits to the QB. Of course there are exceptions to the rule because if your defense is absolutely dead last, you will lose games when you can't get your offense on the field. All you need is a middle of the pack defense to win. So now you have the Jets' coaching staff who's hallmark is supposed to be defense, but while this regime has been in place, the defense has consistently failed in pivotal moments. The Jets need to implement a new mind set with an emphasis on offense and special teams. That is the only way they will be able to compete for a title. Here is my formula: 1) Franchise QB must be found - when you are looking for your guy, he must consistently get rid of the ball in 3 seconds. You don't have enough chips to fix your offensive line so the kid must be able to get rid of the ball quickly. He must be intelligent (not just football intelligent - he must possess logic skills and analytical skills which translate to football awareness), he must be athletic enough to scramble out of trouble when your offensive line breaks down. 2) Offensive Playmaker WR - This guy comes in with the rookie QB and they grow together. He must be at least 6'4' and have 4.4 speed. 3) Offensive Playmaker Hybrid RB - Think Sproles, Spiller, Harvin, (Leon Washington) we need a RB who can catch passes and get lost in traffic for those extra yards 4) Playmaking RB 5) Safety blanket TE As for Special Teams, kickers are the leading points scorers for franchises for a reason. You have to get points when the opportunity presents itself. Having a stop gap kicker is not the answer. Also, you need a kicker who can get touch backs consistently to prevent the other side from having the opportunity to run the ball back for points. good field position = points bad field position = harder points
Defense does win games, the Jets defense is terrible this year though... Our defense brought the Jets to two AFCCG's. Those days are long gone.
Defense wins games in the playoffs, where it matters. Giants shut down Brady twice. What more do you need to see?
It's not that defense doesn't win games. It's just that if one is broken defense is the easier one to either cover up or outright fix. Look at Houston. Good offense, bad defense two years ago. Wade Philips and a few good draft picks and you're golden. Or you can just say fuck it the way the Patriots and Saints have done for years and just mask it with a sick offense. On the flip side, outside of the Ravens and the Bucs nobody in the last 15 years has been able to mask a shitty offense with a great defense - and those teams both had all-time great level defenses for 4 or 5 years and only pulled it off one year each.
At the end of the day, you need your defense to play well to win in the playoffs and Super Bowl. The Giants let up 14 and 17 points in the NFC championship game and Super Bowl. The year before was the Packers, big defensive plays in the SB. Year before that was the Saints. Tracy Porter, Brett Favre/Peterson etc etc. At the end of the day, you need to be balanced and one way to lower the points that the opponent can score is by holding them to 0 instead of 3 or 3 instead of 7. It's a key component but it seems to be more important in the post season than the regular season. Slightly mirrors the NBA that way.
Our kicking has been the least of our problems this year. However, it seems that special teams has been playing sub-par compared to recent history. This is not a typical Westhoff ST.
It works against your theory that of the Top 10 Offenses all-time, only two teams have won the Super Bowl. 1. 2007 Pats 2. 1999 Rams 3. 1990 Bills 4. 1998 Vikings 5. 2004 Colts 6. 1981 Chargers 7. 1984 Dolphins 8. 1983 Redskins 9. 1950 Rams 10. 1989 Niners
Yeah I didn't want to get on Folk for this season because up until today he hasn't missed. The Jets' special teams is poor this year though.
Okay, in the last 10 years how many times has the best defensive team won? 1? Offense gets you there. The Jets don't have an offense.
By points per game per NFL.com: 2011 Steelers 2010 Steelers 2009 Jets 2008 Steelers 2007 Colts 2006 Ravens 2005 Bears 2004 Steelers 2003- Patriots 2002-Bucs Someone can double check if they want. I always get years confused and super bowl years confused.
I mean if you throw a pick 6 it goes against the defense. So maybe it's more accurate to list the top 2 or something? I trust it more than yards per game over the course of a season. Offensively I believe the poster used ppg so I followed that Average amount of points given up per game over the regular season You need a balanced team to win in the playoffs. The regular season is littered with enough weak opponents that you can get away with lopsided play. Quick examples. Packers go 9-7 in 2010-2011 and win Super Bowl. They got their defense back, ran the ball well, threw it effectively but not amazing, and stopped teams. The following year they go 15-1, have a very weak defense that isn't opportunistic, had trouble tackling, and didn't have a run game. One and done. We could do these types of studies all day long. It seems more and more offense can buy you wins in the regular season, but you need a team in the postseason. Another examples is NE in 2007. Average 36 points per game in the regular season. Got to the playoffs and went 31+21+14 which is 22 points per game. In the biggest game of their season, they couldn't put up 1/2 of their regular season average
I'd prefer to see the football outsiders adjusted defensive and offensive rankings used in this type of analysis. Using just yards or points is extremely flawed.
Do you mean OFF DVOA % or the weighted rank? (I have time to kill) Just read weighted favors end of season more importantly. We probably want the pure OFF DVOA%?
OFF DVOA Regular season: 2011 Packers (Giants won #7) (Packers 0-1 in playoffs) 2010 Patriots (Packers won #7) (Patriots 0-1 in playoffs) 2009 Patriots (Saints won #2) ( Patriots 0-1 in playoffs) 2008 Broncos (Steelers won #21) 2007 Patriots (Giants won #18) 2006 Colts 2005 Seahawks (Steelers won #8) 2004 Colts (Patriots won #3) 2003 Chiefs (Patriots won #14) 2002 Chiefs (Bucs won #20) DEF DVOA Regular season: 2011 Ravens (Giants won #19) (Ravens 1-1 in playoffs) 2010 Steelers (Packers won #2) (Steelers 2-1 in playoffs) 2009 Jets (Saints won #17) (Jets 2-1 in playoffs) 2008 Steelers 2007 Titans (Giants won #13) 2006 Ravens (Colts won #25) 2005 Bears (Steelers won #3) 2004 Bills (Patriots won #7) 2003 Ravens (Patriots won #2) 2002 Bucs I threw in the last 3 years of playoffs since I remember those off the top of my head. These are regular season rankings so they don't account for IND getting defensive players back in 06 Super Bowl run. 2008 Offensive I don't understand. It says Denver but I don't remember Denver being amazing offensively that year. Oh and BOLD represents teams that were #1 in the regular season and won the Super Bowl that year I can't find playoff ratings unfortunately. Probably because of small sample size and different amounts of games played.
^ Thank you displaced. This illustrates my point perfectly (if I'm understanding the stats correctly). Generally, a middle of the pack defense is good enough to get it done but generally you need a top tier offense to win.
