Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. LeonNYJ

    LeonNYJ Well-Known Member

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    There are really some idiotic people on the internet. There are people who are actually rooting to get a direct hit by the hurricane. People are so delusional these days.
     
  2. Cman69

    Cman69 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    I take it that I'm in the crosshairs huh. If it comes up the Delmarva, it comes up the Susquehanna and that means trouble for me. Good thing my house is made of all brick and I'm 3/4 up a hill at around 700ft. elev. Lots of gutter clearing and prep work on tap for tomorrow all day.

    My good for nothing/worthless management still won't postpone Tuesday/Wed so looks like I'm gonna have to look out for myself cause the bottom line is, I'm responsible for my own safety and welfare fck the job.

    Quick question Jay.. Will it hit Belmar/Pt. Pleasant/Brielle NJ (Shark River Inlet) as I'm still planning a Striper trip for 11/3/12 and it would be nice if the Marinas were still there.
     
    #1902 Cman69, Oct 26, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
  3. 21stAmendment

    21stAmendment Member

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    I live in Rutherford, NJ.

    Plan on closing my store at 5 pm Monday. Depending on what it's like Monday morning, may close earlier, if I open at all. Can't have my employees rushing home when this storm starts up.
     
    #1903 21stAmendment, Oct 26, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2012
  4. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    North east. At 1st one was saying maybe out to sea,but looks like they both agree on landfall now
     
  5. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Yeah,"hurricane parties". They are for people who dont own shit. I will admit though,as a water damage restorer i do get a bit excited at the possibilty of big jobs,but then i quickly remember that i have a house too and it would suck if anything happened to it.
     
  6. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    Being in central Nassau, I don't expect to experience anything more than a minor inconvenience with this storm. Maybe sustained winds of 40 with gutsts to 60, nothing that hasn't happened fairly often in the past.

    Now, people right on the coast, they could get F'd over especially with the full moon. Low lying inland areas suject to flooding won't escape either.

    For most of us, it won't be a big deal. If you have waterfront property, my guess is you are well insured and pretty well off to begin with. The price you pay for that waterview home I guess.

    I think I might drive down to Jones Beach on Monday to gawk a bit, if they don't close the roads.
     
  7. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    we are no under trop storm warning here. looks like some bands might be heading this way in a few hrs. Its been windy all day,ive had jobs in myrtle beach and in brunswick cty nc(was even more windy there). Also an eerie feeling weather wise all day ,you can almost feel it coming even though were not getting shit compared to what you guys up there will be getting
     
  8. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    Its not always the power of the storm,but the duration. if this thing slows and stalls,thats where your problems are. Like when floyd hit here. Cat 1 or 2 bu8t sat here and flooded everything
     
  9. ThunderbirdJet

    ThunderbirdJet New Member

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    On LI, the areas known for flooding will, the areas that don't flood won't. Water in the basement is a possibility. I'll stand by with a wet vac in case, but I don't expect to be very inconvenienced.

    It could be very nasty for some, but I don't feel threatened at all.
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    No..that really covers it. You are out of the area of snow as of now..so high winds and rain..but the duration will kind of get annoying for many. This isnt the fly by night 8 hours and its over.
     
  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    fools...real fools. It reminds of guys following tornado's. They can be 5 miles away and see homes being demolished into the air shouting "wow..that was cool!"

    Thats why my true admiration sticks with snow storms...for the most part...it shuts things down in a good way.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I really believe cman that this will hit somewhere in between the places you noted and L.I. Now thats a big spread and im sure it will be more defined 24 hours before but one thing im pretty sure on is this..whatever area they settle on will not be the spot. This is a different animal with different mechanisms. It will be within a 30 mile area but to nail down a town or coastal city...i highly doubt it.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    My gut tells me that by 5pm you will have been out there for a bit already. I see this thing going drastically downhill after sunrise and people on the road to going home by noon. Im sure you know when the right time is and hopefully Im wrong and you get the day in.
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Oh...sorry..got you. Duh...cape cod landfall came up on the Nam model but I havent seen the 930 update yet..will check now.

    Euro equals AC

    Gfs equals NYC.

    Euro comes out again at 130 am approx and GFS comes out at 1030 pm
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I just kind of disagree TJ. Yes Nassau is off the waters but there is nothing to slow down the affect once the bands enter L.I.

    I believe..and i pray im wrong..but i believe you will be telling us a bit more about some of the problems come Tuesday.

    Yes..we have easily survived 40 mph and 60 gusts but I believe for you the numbers will be about 10 mph higher and more importantly...over a 24 hour period. Thats the clincher...the duration.
     
  16. deathstar

    deathstar Well-Known Member

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    This looks bad!

    Good luck to you folks up there...

    The wind gusts are still going strong here even though the storm is so far of the coast...Think we had 12,000 lose power here in Palm Beach County...
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Something new being introduced to people west and south..sounds weird..but west and south of the eye or center near the end...and that for a lot of people, there is an outside chance, but growing, of this all ending as a period of snow.

    Talk about being punched in the face for 36 hours..then someone turns around and pisses on you before they walk away. Latest models show a rush of cold air at the every end for many.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    GFS agrees with everyone else that landfall will be between A.C.,NJ AND L.I.,NY.

    With that said a couple notes from the models I just saw.

    1. There will be a sharp cutoff and some crazy swings in precip totals. For instance, Southern NY State gets only a couple inches of rain where NNJ gets 5 inches. During the storm, many areas are getting the winds all the time..but there are major swings in precip...almost seems to me that for many areas the wind will be worse than the precip totals..which is very good news.

    2. The storm no longer stalls and sits. Its huge..so the time frame stays very long..but the weather in your area will be constantly changing...heavy rain and wind...to light showers with heavy wind etc.

    3. NYC harbor seems a good bet to be a disaster area. As long as the eye/center comes in south of the harbor...the water piles up and NYC will probably have the worst storm surge ever recorded or close to.

    4. Very cold air comes in for everyone as the storm departs or just peters out. Cold air for 48 hours after...30's.

    5. Bottom line is there will be records broken for power outages because of the duration of the wind. I cant see how that doesnt happen from Maryland to Mass.

    Euro comes out after 1am and will catch that model but thats it for today.

    Oh..the Jet game! Showers increasing as the game goes with winds increasing too..not crazy..but enough to challenge a late field goal.
     
  19. GREG

    GREG Well-Known Member

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    So when do you see this starting to end Tues night,Wed or Thursday for the NY/NJ/LI Metro area?
     
  20. bojanglesman

    bojanglesman Active Member

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    Folk hits an 82 yd field goal with the help of the wind for the win.
     

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